Author Topic: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....  (Read 4065987 times)

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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29700 on: December 05, 2016, 09:38:28 AM »
I think they would treat the G5 teams like the BCS did. If one of them is ranked higher than 12 they get in automatically, and if ranked higher than 16, they get in if a P5 conference champ is ranked lower than them.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29701 on: December 05, 2016, 09:41:43 AM »
It will take a while to get there, but it does seem that the 8-team playoff is inevitable.
Of course it is. I immediately know someone is a dipshit of they think otherwise. When has anyone known tv/ncaa/individual universities to turn  down gobs of money?

The question is can you stay at a 12 game schedule, keep the CCGs, & keep the Orange/Sugar/Rose bowl setups in addition to the extra round?  The conf champ games are worth $30-$40mm per conference.  Those bowls are worth $40mm for each conf, plus either the BigTen or SEC get an additional $27mm when in the Orange. 

That's a lot of money going directly to the power 5.  You start removing/devaluing those and replace them with $$$ that you might have to share more, then those extra 4 games have to be worth a lot.  I'm not sure quarterfinal games are worth more collectively than reduced value CCGs and Rose/Orange/Sugar bowls.

The FCS championship game participants play a 15 game schedule, so yeah we'd have to drop a regular season game.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29702 on: December 05, 2016, 09:43:16 AM »
I think they would treat the G5 teams like the BCS did. If one of them is ranked higher than 12 they get in automatically, and if ranked higher than 16, they get in if a P5 conference champ is ranked lower than them.

Yeah I could see that, but they aren't just giving the Mountain West champ a spot for grins and giggles.

Offline Trim

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29703 on: December 05, 2016, 09:43:30 AM »
The focus should be on there being much less college football teams at a playoff-qualifying level instead of there being more teams in a playoff.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29704 on: December 05, 2016, 09:49:23 AM »
Great stuff as always, Brad.

Offline TheHamburglar

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29705 on: December 05, 2016, 09:50:49 AM »
It will take a while to get there, but it does seem that the 8-team playoff is inevitable.
Of course it is. I immediately know someone is a dipshit of they think otherwise. When has anyone known tv/ncaa/individual universities to turn  down gobs of money?

The question is can you stay at a 12 game schedule, keep the CCGs, & keep the Orange/Sugar/Rose bowl setups in addition to the extra round?  The conf champ games are worth $30-$40mm per conference.  Those bowls are worth $40mm for each conf, plus either the BigTen or SEC get an additional $27mm when in the Orange. 

That's a lot of money going directly to the power 5.  You start removing/devaluing those and replace them with $$$ that you might have to share more, then those extra 4 games have to be worth a lot.  I'm not sure quarterfinal games are worth more collectively than reduced value CCGs and Rose/Orange/Sugar bowls.

The FCS championship game participants play a 15 game schedule, so yeah we'd have to drop a regular season game.

To schools with 100k stadiums, a home non-con is worth $5mm+ each.  Spread that out over a conference because they aren't going to uneven revenue sharing based on potential revenue lost due to stadium size/ticket price/concessions.

There is probably some bump in revenue.  I just don't think it's a lot overall when you remove/reduce other income streams that go directly to the conferences/schools.
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Offline KITNfury

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29706 on: December 05, 2016, 10:39:35 AM »
You think adding 4 primo games lowers the income?  Let me tell you why making the Playoffs inclusive makes not just a little more money,  but a lot more.

First,  the obvious.  You have 4 extra games that REALLY mean something.  Those teams can win the NC.  By default,  they reach an even larger audience because every G5 team (assuming on is in) will tune in rooting for the underdog because they in turn represent all small schools.  Then,  you have lots of fans of every major team watching at least one game because their conference is represented,  and in turn each school is being represented by their conference mate.

Second,  and this is the one most overlooked.  Big 12 notwithstanding,  most conferences have championship games.  As long as you are in play to win your division,  you are in play to win the NC.  Think about that.  Compared to now,  where if you have 2 losses,  you're pretty much screwed....to a time when you could be 4-4 and still fantasize about making the playoffs. That makes more games matter.  Which means more butts in seats,  and more eyeballs on the games.  Until you are mathematically eliminated from winning your division,  you're a playoff contender.

And to answer someone's question,  yes you can fit another game in.  Have it 2 weeks after the conference championship games in the top seeded teams' Stadium.
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Offline Trim

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29707 on: December 05, 2016, 10:46:46 AM »
Who'd have imagined it'd be difficult for 100+ teams w/conflicting interests and no universal oversight to come up w/an ideal method of determining the best team after they all play only 12-13 games of their choosing?

Offline KITNfury

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29708 on: December 05, 2016, 10:52:52 AM »
Who'd have imagined it'd be difficult for 100+ teams w/conflicting interests and no universal oversight to come up w/an ideal method of determining the best team after they all play only 12-13 games of their choosing?
Sure,  I understand the difficulties,  but I like clearly defined paths to the playoffs.  I hate that CFB is basically ice skating w/ judges that determine who has a chance at the championship.  G5 teams would probably remain a Nancy Kerrigan,  but it would be better than they have now.  The rest of us know how to get there.

And the added benefit of that is there is less risk to scheduling good/tough OOC games.  Losing in the OOC only hurts if you think you're going to A.  Lose your conference and B.  Still be good enough to get an at large.  If you fall into category B,  you're probably not scared of losing to very many teams. 8 team playoff has so many advantages.
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Offline catastrophe

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29709 on: December 05, 2016, 11:19:49 AM »
I think the highest-ranked undefeated G5 team should be given a playoff shot. The last two G5 teams that played in the New Years Six Bowls won those games. People always talk about an SEC (and Ohio State/Michigan) bias, but there is also a very strong P5 bias that might not be all that well deserved.

Going undefeated is tough anywhere. NDSU showed that even the best FCS teams can compete with any FBS team.

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29710 on: December 05, 2016, 11:46:46 AM »
not with any fbs team


Cheesy Mustache QB might make an appearance.

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Offline DQ12

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29711 on: December 05, 2016, 11:59:23 AM »
It's pretty simple, but I think Bob believes in the bullshit that was sold at the outset.

All of the stuff about championships and the like is horseshit. ESPN paid billions for this thing, and they need Ohio State in there.   The only reason Michigan isn't is because there would have been a revolt had three of the five P5 champs been left out.
What you and bowlsby fail to grasp is that in '14, Ohio State, TCU and Baylor all had the same number of losses.  That year, the "13th data point" and "conference champion" rationale was used as a tiebreaker of sorts between similarly situated teams (i.e. teams with only one loss).  This year is different, as all P5 teams with 1 or fewer losses are in the CFP.  It's unnecessary to do any sort of analysis re. conference championships or 13th data points.

This gnashing of teeth about preference for blue blood schools would've made sense tOSU had 2 losses in '14 compared to TCU's and Baylor's 1.


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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29712 on: December 05, 2016, 12:03:45 PM »
It's pretty simple, but I think Bob believes in the bullshit that was sold at the outset.

All of the stuff about championships and the like is horseshit. ESPN paid billions for this thing, and they need Ohio State in there.   The only reason Michigan isn't is because there would have been a revolt had three of the five P5 champs been left out.
What you and bowlsby fail to grasp is that in '14, Ohio State, TCU and Baylor all had the same number of losses.  That year, the "13th data point" and "conference champion" rationale was used as a tiebreaker of sorts between similarly situated teams (i.e. teams with only one loss).  This year is different, as all P5 teams with 1 or fewer losses are in the CFP.  It's unnecessary to do any sort of analysis re. conference championships or 13th data points.

This gnashing of teeth about preference for blue blood schools would've made sense tOSU had 2 losses in '14 compared to TCU's and Baylor's 1.

KU only had 1 loss in 2007. Did you feel like they got screwed out of a NCG game berth?

Offline kim carnes

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29713 on: December 05, 2016, 12:11:56 PM »
It's pretty simple, but I think Bob believes in the bullshit that was sold at the outset.

All of the stuff about championships and the like is horseshit. ESPN paid billions for this thing, and they need Ohio State in there.   The only reason Michigan isn't is because there would have been a revolt had three of the five P5 champs been left out.
What you and bowlsby fail to grasp is that in '14, Ohio State, TCU and Baylor all had the same number of losses.  That year, the "13th data point" and "conference champion" rationale was used as a tiebreaker of sorts between similarly situated teams (i.e. teams with only one loss).  This year is different, as all P5 teams with 1 or fewer losses are in the CFP.  It's unnecessary to do any sort of analysis re. conference championships or 13th data points.

This gnashing of teeth about preference for blue blood schools would've made sense tOSU had 2 losses in '14 compared to TCU's and Baylor's 1.

Good post dlew

Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29714 on: December 05, 2016, 12:13:39 PM »
The committee changes every year.  Things will be weighted differently every year.  If you want a formula to get in: Be a 1 loss conference champ.  That gets you in 19 times out of 20 and is about as precise as it gets.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29715 on: December 05, 2016, 12:33:59 PM »
I think maybe the committee just decided they didn't want pedophile-enablers tainting their playoff.

Offline DQ12

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29716 on: December 05, 2016, 12:39:16 PM »
It's pretty simple, but I think Bob believes in the bullshit that was sold at the outset.

All of the stuff about championships and the like is horseshit. ESPN paid billions for this thing, and they need Ohio State in there.   The only reason Michigan isn't is because there would have been a revolt had three of the five P5 champs been left out.
What you and bowlsby fail to grasp is that in '14, Ohio State, TCU and Baylor all had the same number of losses.  That year, the "13th data point" and "conference champion" rationale was used as a tiebreaker of sorts between similarly situated teams (i.e. teams with only one loss).  This year is different, as all P5 teams with 1 or fewer losses are in the CFP.  It's unnecessary to do any sort of analysis re. conference championships or 13th data points.

This gnashing of teeth about preference for blue blood schools would've made sense tOSU had 2 losses in '14 compared to TCU's and Baylor's 1.

KU only had 1 loss in 2007. Did you feel like they got screwed out of a NCG game berth?
That's a good point, and honestly, I think they had a pretty good argument.  On the other hand, I the situation is a little apples and oranges for a couple reasons: 

1.  2007 is regarded (by me) as the weirdest year ever during the BCS era.   

2.There the BCS's formula (comprised of the hundreds of harris and coaches voters and computer rankings) is the one to blame -- not a group of 12 (?) CFP individuals.  Maybe there was some conspiracy among all the coaches and computers to prefer a 2-loss LSU team over 1-loss Kansas for whatever reason, but I think you'd be breaking out tinfoil hats in order to make the argument.  In any event, you can't criticize the CFP for being inconsistent when they had nothing to do with the 2007 selection.

3.  LSU's and 2007 KU's schedules were much, much different.  LSU played 6 ranked opponents during the season, including VT in the OOC.  LSU's SOS was number 3.  KU played (and lost to) only 1 team that finished in the Dec. 2, 2007 BCS rankings -- Missouri, who, in turn, lost twice to conference champion OU.  This is why everyone (coaches and ap...probably computers too, but can't find raw computer rankings) crushed KU after losing to MU.  KU finished EIGHTH in the only two polls that mattered (Harris, Coaches). When the disparity between schedules is that wide, I can understand the argument.  On the other hand, Ohio State and PSU played essentially the same schedule this year (though Ohio State's was better I imagine) and Ohio State finished with fewer losses. 


But you're right, under my personal rule of thumb P5 ranking system which prioritizes 1. number of losses, then 2. SOS, KU would've played for the national title in '07.  But given the crazy disparity in SOS, I think an exception to the rule can, and probably should, be made.


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Offline scottwildcat

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29717 on: December 05, 2016, 12:42:14 PM »
the BCS Formula would have selected the same 4 teams the CFP has selected each year.

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29718 on: December 05, 2016, 12:45:06 PM »
the BCS Formula would have selected the same 4 teams the CFP has selected each year.
no way to know for sure because the harris poll stopped after the BCS ended, but if it mirrored the coaches poll in 2014, then yep -- that's true.


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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29719 on: December 05, 2016, 12:49:30 PM »
2007 KU had about as much of an argument for playing in the NC as any other mid-major team any other given year has. None of Western Michigan, UCF, N. Illinois, KU, Marshall has any business playing against actual good teams because they aren't actually any good. KU was lucky to get a bcs bowl, and should have been playing Eastern Carolina in the Hooters Myrtle Beach Bowl.
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Offline Panjandrum

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29720 on: December 05, 2016, 04:00:01 PM »
It's pretty simple, but I think Bob believes in the bullshit that was sold at the outset.

All of the stuff about championships and the like is horseshit. ESPN paid billions for this thing, and they need Ohio State in there.   The only reason Michigan isn't is because there would have been a revolt had three of the five P5 champs been left out.
What you and bowlsby fail to grasp is that in '14, Ohio State, TCU and Baylor all had the same number of losses.  That year, the "13th data point" and "conference champion" rationale was used as a tiebreaker of sorts between similarly situated teams (i.e. teams with only one loss).  This year is different, as all P5 teams with 1 or fewer losses are in the CFP.  It's unnecessary to do any sort of analysis re. conference championships or 13th data points.

This gnashing of teeth about preference for blue blood schools would've made sense tOSU had 2 losses in '14 compared to TCU's and Baylor's 1.

What I'm saying is that Bob is shouting at the wind about criteria for inclusion, but every year it's going to be different (I agree with Hamburgler), and Bob wants some defined matrix that says, "Well, you said it should be conference champs and additional data points, but Ohio State had neither."  I don't think this is a OSU vs. OU challenge, or a 2016 OSU vs. 2014 TCU/Baylor as much as it is the fact that Bob wants something black and white because he's making some serious decisions that impact the long term health of his conference based on these criteria for inclusion.

I understand that there isn't an apples to apples comparison, year over year.  Bob wants one.  What myself and others are saying is that this is the first time you have a situation where the conference champ was displaced by a member of its own conference when they A) didn't have a 13th data point and B) lost in a head-to-head matchup with the team that displaced them.

Let me be clear; I don't think that the 4th team (or second based on seed) should have been anyone outside of the Big Ten.  I think what Bob is seeing, or what I hope he's seeing as opposed to just whining, is that you have an odd circumstance where OSU failed two different, albiet significant, criteria for inclusion.  Had Michigan been the choice, you could at least have said that Michigan beat Penn State by 39 points, and I think most people would have probably nodded and said, "Okay.  Makes sense." 

But they've been displaced by Ohio State, who they beat, and doesn't have the all significant 13th data point.  And that brings up an additional question as to what matters more?  The 11th win coming against another Top 10 team in the 13th game, or the one loss in a set of 12?

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29721 on: December 05, 2016, 04:11:26 PM »
Right and what you and Bob don't seem to grasp is that 99 times out of 100 (2007 and G5 teams notwithstanding) the most important factor is number of losses.  Again, if the number of losses are equal, THAT'S when it makes sense to look at all of these secondary variables (13th data point etc).

It's jarring that the guy who runs our conference is having a hard time with this.  Though I will say that the committee did a crap job of emphasizing that Penn State's second loss is what screwed them over.

Winning the conference is an achievement in and of itself.  Its  only effect on determining playoff contenders should be the game's effect on the proposed team's SOS.

Have a passable SOS and lose no more than once.  If you do that, you'llget in. 
« Last Edit: December 05, 2016, 04:15:40 PM by Dlew12 »


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Offline Panjandrum

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29722 on: December 05, 2016, 04:46:25 PM »
Right and what you and Bob don't seem to grasp is that 99 times out of 100 (2007 and G5 teams notwithstanding) the most important factor is number of losses.  Again, if the number of losses are equal, THAT'S when it makes sense to look at all of these secondary variables (13th data point etc).

It's jarring that the guy who runs our conference is having a hard time with this.  Though I will say that the committee did a crap job of emphasizing that Penn State's second loss is what screwed them over.

Winning the conference is an achievement in and of itself.  Its  only effect on determining playoff contenders should be the game's effect on the proposed team's SOS.

Have a passable SOS and lose no more than once.  If you do that, you'llget in.

We assume it's the number of losses.  And, yeah, in the grand scheme of things, that's how college football did it before, but we're in a new era now.  We've been told that they weight conference titles.  We've been told they weight the 13th data point.  Now we're being told that two teams with 11 wins, one with a head-to-head victory over the other, is out because they lost to Pitt by a field goal three months ago.

I mean, sure, number of losses helps draw a fence around what teams make sense because there is a correlation there between number of losses and the quality of the team.  But now that you have five or six realistic teams in there, which one makes the most sense between Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State.  And I'd argue that given the strange complexity of those scenarios means that a two loss team should get more serious consideration.

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29723 on: December 05, 2016, 05:25:13 PM »
Jmo but winning the conf is a regular season playoff to the playoffs. If you think you deserve to be in the playoff, win your rough ridin' conference.  And I say that knowing full well that you won't always have the "best" teams in the playoff that way.
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #29724 on: December 05, 2016, 06:43:55 PM »
Yeah, teams that can't win their conference getting into the playoff over teams that do just cheapens the regular season.