Author Topic: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....  (Read 2842673 times)

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Offline PurpleOil

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32825 on: October 06, 2021, 11:32:45 AM »
Have the rules changed? If not, I'd expect Cincinnati to get snubbed.

Four 1 loss teams made it in over undefeated UCF in 2017.


And UCF is now recognized as a national champion along with Alabama because of it. I would think the powers that be would want to avoid such a scenario from occurring again.

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32826 on: October 06, 2021, 12:02:52 PM »
I think Cinci’s SOS will be good enough to keep them above 1 loss P5 teams, depending on the team.


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Offline chum1

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32827 on: October 06, 2021, 12:08:31 PM »
2017 UCF didn't have success the previous season

Just for the record here, undefeated UCF got snubbed again the very next year in 2018.

Like, when some of us bitch about ESPN and what not, we are not confused between conference payout money and the playoff selection process. We just don't see all that much of a difference between the two at the end of the day.

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32828 on: October 06, 2021, 12:54:35 PM »
2017 UCF didn't have success the previous season

Just for the record here, undefeated UCF got snubbed again the very next year in 2018.

Like, when some of us bitch about ESPN and what not, we are not confused between conference payout money and the playoff selection process. We just don't see all that much of a difference between the two at the end of the day.

The more I thought about it, my argument is that Cincinnati SHOULD have a better argument and more going for them.  I certainly think the CFP committee can and may screw them regardless which I believe aligns with your comments.

Online Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32829 on: October 06, 2021, 01:20:31 PM »
Cincinnati is not getting into the playoffs over a 1 loss power program. They could get in over a 1 loss Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa, or Michigan State because those are not power programs. They can't get in over a 1 loss Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, etc. It's not about conference affiliation so much as it is about the strength of the individual program.

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32830 on: October 06, 2021, 02:30:36 PM »
Cincinnati is not getting into the playoffs over a 1 loss power program. They could get in over a 1 loss Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa, or Michigan State because those are not power programs. They can't get in over a 1 loss Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, etc. It's not about conference affiliation so much as it is about the strength of the individual program.

Yep. That Baylor/TCU year is the prime example.
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Offline PurpleOil

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32831 on: October 06, 2021, 03:37:42 PM »
2017 UCF didn't have success the previous season

Just for the record here, undefeated UCF got snubbed again the very next year in 2018.

Like, when some of us bitch about ESPN and what not, we are not confused between conference payout money and the playoff selection process. We just don't see all that much of a difference between the two at the end of the day.

It wasn't as much of a snub in 2018 as they weren't nearly as dominant in the regular season, and also their starting quarterback went down in the last game of the regular season. Now, would this have made a difference if it had been an Ohio State or a Georgia team? Possibly, but it damn sure wouldn't have been as much.

Cincinnati is not getting into the playoffs over a 1 loss power program. They could get in over a 1 loss Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa, or Michigan State because those are not power programs. They can't get in over a 1 loss Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, etc. It's not about conference affiliation so much as it is about the strength of the individual program.


What does that mean, "strength of the individual program"?

To date, 24 of the 28 teams selected for the College Football Playoff have been undefeated or 1-loss conference champions from Power Five conferences. Two 1-loss Power Five teams have been selected without playing in their conference championship game(Ohio State in 2016 and Alabama in 2017), while one other has been selected after losing its conference championship game(Notre Dame in 2020). One undefeated independent team has been selected(Notre Dame 2018). No teams from the "Group of Five" conferences or with two or more losses have been selected.

Going back through things, UCF in 2017 is the only G5 team that's legitimately had a case to be in that's been left out. No other teams had the resume or looks to be a contender. Also, the Baylor/TCU debacle in 2014 was caused as much by the Big XII and their co-champion BS as it was the playoff committee. The only other 1 loss teams to not be invited ever to the playoff has been Ohio State (2015 and 2018), Iowa (2015), and Wisconsin (2017); only Ohio State in 2018 was a conference champion. They were left out because of a matching record Oklahoma only had a close loss to #9 Texas while that year Ohio State had a bad loss on the road to unranked Purdue.

I guess my point to this is, if you're in a P5 conference and win your conference championship game with 1 or 0 losses, you're pretty much in. There are plenty of theoretical scenarios that you can come up with to how this could result in 5 or 6 undefeated teams at the end of the year, all vying for 4 spots, but it hasn't happened yet and is very unlikely to happen. Our conference is going back to 12+2 members, having two divisions, and a CCG that actually matters. If you run the gauntlet, you get in.

EDIT: Now, to the scenario that we're currently wondering about, harkens back to UCF in 2017. That ultimately ended up with two national champions, the very scenario the playoff was supposed to prevent. I don't think the playoff committee will make that same mistake again. We won't know for sure unless Cincinnati runs the table in convincing fashion and still gets left out (depending on what happens with the rest of the conferences). However, it will tell us for sure whether a G5 stands a chance at getting in or not.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2021, 03:54:39 PM by PurpleOil »

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32832 on: October 06, 2021, 04:04:44 PM »
Our conference champion will get in with one loss as there isn't a big name program that also only has one loss.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32833 on: October 06, 2021, 09:41:02 PM »
Cincinnati is not getting into the playoffs over a 1 loss power program. They could get in over a 1 loss Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa, or Michigan State because those are not power programs. They can't get in over a 1 loss Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, etc. It's not about conference affiliation so much as it is about the strength of the individual program.

Yep. That Baylor/TCU year is the prime example.

No it wasn't. Both of those teams had a loss and awful defenses. The team that was selected over them won the national championship game by 22 points.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32834 on: October 06, 2021, 10:08:57 PM »
Also, for the record 2017 UCF is a horrible example of what may happen to Cincinnati. UCF wasn't even ranked going into the season, they didn't appear in the AP top 25 until week 6. The final week of the regular season AP poll, they were only 10th, 12th in the CFP. They didn't play a ranked team until November 25th, USF, and the last game before the CFP they gave up 55 points to Memphis in the AAC championship game. At no point in that season did UCF prove they were worthy of being considered one of the top 4 teams in the country.

Chum was right about them actually getting screwed in 2018, but it's worth noting their CFP rating was always within a couple of spots within their places in the AP & coaches poll. After that undefeated season they were only 22nd in the preseason AP poll. They should have been much higher. Even if they were though, they would not have made the CFP. Alabama, Notre Dame, and Clemson. OU was the 1 loss team and that loss was by 3 to Texas in the RRR. 2018 UCF only played one even good team and that was #19 Cincinnati but that wasn't until mid November. 1 loss Ohio State should have been the 4th team in the CFP but Texas being forever overrated, #9 with three losses when they played OU in the dr. pepper, helped OU over Ohio State. Their one loss was mid season to Purdue. If y'all remember that was the Saturday night game when they honored Tyler Trent, the Purdue student dying of cancer, and they pounded Ohio State that night.

Offline deputy dawg

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32835 on: October 14, 2021, 10:01:38 AM »
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/undefeated-cincinnati-college-football-playoff-selection-committee/e0znrzaiuxz61t01r6dlifsg4

Quote
Cincinnati has traveled this same path already, winning every regular-season game and the American Athletic Conference championship game in 2020 while dodging COVID-19 stoppages like everyone else. The Bearcats were ranked eighth and placed behind a Florida team that fell three times.


Offline PurpleOil

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32836 on: October 14, 2021, 10:46:05 AM »
Way too much football left to be played. Lots of teams left that can, and will, still lose games. They need a little luck on their side, but Cincinnati is still in the hunt.


Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32837 on: October 14, 2021, 12:36:23 PM »
I like Cincinnati.

I don't know if they move the needle any, but they appear to have a pretty solid athletic department and their fanbase, while likely not very large seems to support their team(s) very well.

I enjoy following the business of college athletics, but it's getting to be ridiculous.   Just play the damn games and everyone have fun FFS.


Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32838 on: October 14, 2021, 05:26:26 PM »
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/undefeated-cincinnati-college-football-playoff-selection-committee/e0znrzaiuxz61t01r6dlifsg4

Quote
Cincinnati has traveled this same path already, winning every regular-season game and the American Athletic Conference championship game in 2020 while dodging COVID-19 stoppages like everyone else. The Bearcats were ranked eighth and placed behind a Florida team that fell three times.

All those words and none of them addressed the fact that Cincinnati is currently in CFP position in the polls and the computer models, they're 4th in the Massey composite.
https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

It's flat dishonest to write an article about this and not point out that Cincinnati's profile is unlike every G5 team before them. They are so astronomically ahead of any predecessor that it isn't fathomable for another G5 to reach #3 in the polls and #4 in the computers.

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32839 on: October 15, 2021, 11:07:07 AM »
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/undefeated-cincinnati-college-football-playoff-selection-committee/e0znrzaiuxz61t01r6dlifsg4

Quote
Cincinnati has traveled this same path already, winning every regular-season game and the American Athletic Conference championship game in 2020 while dodging COVID-19 stoppages like everyone else. The Bearcats were ranked eighth and placed behind a Florida team that fell three times.

All those words and none of them addressed the fact that Cincinnati is currently in CFP position in the polls and the computer models, they're 4th in the Massey composite.
https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

It's flat dishonest to write an article about this and not point out that Cincinnati's profile is unlike every G5 team before them. They are so astronomically ahead of any predecessor that it isn't fathomable for another G5 to reach #3 in the polls and #4 in the computers.

Any idea if it is likely they maintain that ranking?  I don't know how much their conference SOS will hurt them compared to P5 teams.

Offline PurpleOil

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32840 on: October 15, 2021, 12:12:21 PM »
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/undefeated-cincinnati-college-football-playoff-selection-committee/e0znrzaiuxz61t01r6dlifsg4

Quote
Cincinnati has traveled this same path already, winning every regular-season game and the American Athletic Conference championship game in 2020 while dodging COVID-19 stoppages like everyone else. The Bearcats were ranked eighth and placed behind a Florida team that fell three times.

All those words and none of them addressed the fact that Cincinnati is currently in CFP position in the polls and the computer models, they're 4th in the Massey composite.
https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

It's flat dishonest to write an article about this and not point out that Cincinnati's profile is unlike every G5 team before them. They are so astronomically ahead of any predecessor that it isn't fathomable for another G5 to reach #3 in the polls and #4 in the computers.

Any idea if it is likely they maintain that ranking?  I don't know how much their conference SOS will hurt them compared to P5 teams.

Based upon previous history and looking at the current top 25, I'd say they still stand a good chance at making it.

SEC: Only Georgia, Alabama, and Kentucky are still in the hunt. Kentucky and Georgia play this weekend with the winner likely being division champ. Alabama already has one loss and has to win out including the CCG to make it in. While a scenario or two exists, the SEC is likely only getting one team in this year.

big 10: Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, M-State and Penn State are all still technically in the hunt. Big ten east is simply loaded. Unfortunately for them, they all still have to play each other and so the losses are going to mount up. A scenario exists where two teams get it, but it's very unlikely. big 10 is only getting 1 in this year

Pac: Hahaha

Big XII: Oklahoma and OSU are the only teams with a shot unless Baylor flips a switch and suddenly wins out in convincing fashion, and OSU would need a little help too. Otherwise, BlowU is it unless they lose the CCG.

Remaining teams still technically in the hunt but that can't leapfrog Cincinnati without other teams losing: ND, Coastal, Oregon, Wake Forest, and Arizona State.

So yeah, if I'm Cincinnati and I win out, I like my chances of making the playoff!

Offline Chingon

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32841 on: October 15, 2021, 12:45:57 PM »
I think the sec will still get two in. Conference winner for sure, and then likely the loser of that game (one loss UGA certainly gets in, but two loss Bama --- if the conference championship game is close is a really good bet still ).

I think Big Ten gets the other two. Conference champ and next highest one loss team.

Offline WildcatNation

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32842 on: October 15, 2021, 12:59:28 PM »
I think the sec will still get two in. Conference winner for sure, and then likely the loser of that game (one loss UGA certainly gets in, but two loss Bama --- if the conference championship game is close is a really good bet still ).

I think Big Ten gets the other two. Conference champ and next highest one loss team.

Worst case scenario (which means it will happen) is that both Bama and Georgia wins out and Bama beats them in the conference championship. In that situation, both are easily in.

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32843 on: October 15, 2021, 01:07:35 PM »
I wasn’t specific but I was more asking about maintaining the computer ranking.

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32844 on: October 15, 2021, 01:09:15 PM »
I think the sec will still get two in. Conference winner for sure, and then likely the loser of that game (one loss UGA certainly gets in, but two loss Bama --- if the conference championship game is close is a really good bet still ).

I think Big Ten gets the other two. Conference champ and next highest one loss team.
I have a hard time seeing the CFP limiting it to just 2 conferences. I think the SEC/B10 is good for 3 spots but expect someone else for the 4th

Offline PurpleOil

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32845 on: October 15, 2021, 01:32:50 PM »
I think the sec will still get two in. Conference winner for sure, and then likely the loser of that game (one loss UGA certainly gets in, but two loss Bama --- if the conference championship game is close is a really good bet still ).

I think Big Ten gets the other two. Conference champ and next highest one loss team.

A 2 loss Bama team is not getting in. In fact would bet a sizeable amount of money that the loser of the SEC championship game does NOT get in if their name isn't Georgia. Again, based on past history, out of all 28 teams selected for the playoff only 1 team has been able to lose their conference championship game and still get in. That was ND in 2020 who lost to Clemson after beating them earlier in the year. Both teams made the playoff and both were ranked high all year. No way 2 loss Bama gets in while undefeated Oklahoma/OSU, or 1 loss Penn/Mich/MSt/Iowa/OhioSt look on from the outside.

Offline PurpleOil

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32846 on: October 15, 2021, 01:33:47 PM »
I think the sec will still get two in. Conference winner for sure, and then likely the loser of that game (one loss UGA certainly gets in, but two loss Bama --- if the conference championship game is close is a really good bet still ).

I think Big Ten gets the other two. Conference champ and next highest one loss team.

Worst case scenario (which means it will happen) is that both Bama and Georgia wins out and Bama beats them in the conference championship. In that situation, both are easily in.

This is really the only scenario where I see two SEC teams getting in. It is, as you can see, quite possible.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32847 on: October 15, 2021, 07:30:47 PM »
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/undefeated-cincinnati-college-football-playoff-selection-committee/e0znrzaiuxz61t01r6dlifsg4

Quote
Cincinnati has traveled this same path already, winning every regular-season game and the American Athletic Conference championship game in 2020 while dodging COVID-19 stoppages like everyone else. The Bearcats were ranked eighth and placed behind a Florida team that fell three times.

All those words and none of them addressed the fact that Cincinnati is currently in CFP position in the polls and the computer models, they're 4th in the Massey composite.
https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

It's flat dishonest to write an article about this and not point out that Cincinnati's profile is unlike every G5 team before them. They are so astronomically ahead of any predecessor that it isn't fathomable for another G5 to reach #3 in the polls and #4 in the computers.

Any idea if it is likely they maintain that ranking?  I don't know how much their conference SOS will hurt them compared to P5 teams.

They will continue to lose ground in SOS rankings for sure, but the teams around then will continue to lose. If they remain undefeated their resume will be similar to some of the Clemson teams lately.

Offline MadCat

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32848 on: October 19, 2021, 12:29:52 PM »

Offline Katpappy

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #32849 on: October 19, 2021, 01:07:25 PM »

I can see UAB, Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns and Appalachian State as fine additions.
 
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