Author Topic: Bearly competing; Baylor ADV  (Read 8873 times)

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Offline j rake

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Re: Bearly competing; Baylor ADV
« Reply #75 on: February 21, 2015, 10:26:53 PM »
oscar and his teams are so weird though. Even this year, we have 6 wins against kenpom top 50 teams, 3 against the top 20. I don't know how he can have wins that good and still have the losses he has; both blowouts like today and bad losses like Texas Southern and Northern Colorado.

ou went to overtime today against tech.  they aren't as different as the rankings suggest.

if ou played k-state in the b12 tourney they'd be a 6-7 pt favorite. that's a pretty big difference.

Offline sys

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Re: Bearly competing; Baylor ADV
« Reply #76 on: February 21, 2015, 10:41:26 PM »
if ou played k-state in the b12 tourney they'd be a 6-7 pt favorite. that's a pretty big difference.

can you easily research what the avg point spread would be for a neutral site kenpom 10 v kenpom 90 over the last decade?
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline j rake

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Re: Bearly competing; Baylor ADV
« Reply #77 on: February 21, 2015, 11:32:16 PM »
if ou played k-state in the b12 tourney they'd be a 6-7 pt favorite. that's a pretty big difference.

can you easily research what the avg point spread would be for a neutral site kenpom 10 v kenpom 90 over the last decade?

year to year, a 10 vs 90 matchup will be a difference of 7-9 points on neutral. last year, probably closer to 8. this year, maybe 7.5 or so.

k-state played ou well both times. but i obviously don't think these teams are similar at all. ou is far more efficient on both ends of the floor than k-state, particularly in league play, and it's not close. oklahoma on its best day beat texas, iowa state, wvu, baylor and okla st by double digits. k-state on its best day is incapable of doing the same.

Offline sys

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Re: Bearly competing; Baylor ADV
« Reply #78 on: February 21, 2015, 11:47:22 PM »
if in most years it's 7-9 points and this year it's 6-7, that seems like a meaningful difference.  but you also said it was 7.5.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Bearly competing; Baylor ADV
« Reply #79 on: February 21, 2015, 11:57:48 PM »

Offline michigancat

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Re: Bearly competing; Baylor ADV
« Reply #80 on: February 22, 2015, 12:00:47 AM »
Us sweeping OU is a lot like OU sweeping us in 2012

Offline Stevesie60

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Re: Bearly competing; Baylor ADV
« Reply #81 on: February 22, 2015, 12:02:01 AM »
Us sweeping OU is a lot like OU sweeping us in 2012

I think it's like Colorado sweeping us in 2011.

Offline michigancat

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Re: Bearly competing; Baylor ADV
« Reply #82 on: February 22, 2015, 12:03:25 AM »
Us sweeping OU is a lot like OU sweeping us in 2012

I think it's like Colorado sweeping us in 2011.
No, that team was much better than us this year and 2012 OU

Offline j rake

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Re: Bearly competing; Baylor ADV
« Reply #83 on: February 22, 2015, 12:03:47 AM »
if in most years it's 7-9 points and this year it's 6-7, that seems like a meaningful difference.  but you also said it was 7.5.

i said okla would be a 6-7 point favorite over k-state in the big 12 tourney, which is held in kansas city. k-state gets a small bump for presumed homecourt advantage.

obviously, you can extract HCA from previous games played this year (OU was -3.5 @ KSU and -12 vs KSU) and get to that 7.5-8 range very easily.


Offline sys

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Re: Bearly competing; Baylor ADV
« Reply #84 on: February 22, 2015, 12:47:28 AM »
i said okla would be a 6-7 point favorite over k-state in the big 12 tourney, which is held in kansas city. k-state gets a small bump for presumed homecourt advantage.

got it.  still, 7.5 is on the low end of the range you list as typical.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."