Who to root for on Saturday:

[Tobias]

i got like an 18% on a test once in ksucats discrete math, but that looks 100% legit

[Cartierfor3]

35% seems a bit high for cats over baylor 'blast. I mean, I bleed purple but I'm thinking its like a 15% type of chance.

['taterblast]

35% seems a bit high for cats over baylor 'blast. I mean, I bleed purple but I'm thinking its like a 15% type of chance.

i know

[kso_FAN]

bcftoys.com says about 30%, with a weird score:

72.4% PWE :: BAYLOR 28, Kansas State 22

[Bqqkie Pimp]

let's do odds, the 'blast way.

cats beat baylor - 35%
Ga Tech beats Fla State - 40%
Oregon beats Arizona - 80%
Wisconsin beats Ohio St - 60%

(.35)(.4)(.8)(.6) = 6.72%

LET'S DO IT

What algo are these percentages from? Or, are they just arbitrarily made up for your "guesstimation"?

Massey says:

Cats win - 37%
Jackets win - 49%
Duck wins - 77%
Wisky wins - 44%

(.37)(.49)(.77)(.44) = 6.14%

** although I think wisky has a better chance with Barrett out and I doubt Massey factors that in.

['taterblast]

those were my percentages but hey they were pretty close. isn't wisconsin favored?

[kso_FAN]

bcftoys isn't quite as forgiving.
Cats win - .276
Jackets win - .383
Ducks win - .706
Wisc win - .373

.029

[MixBerryCrunch]

I had our odds at about 5-10% after this last Saturday. So that seems about right.

[MixBerryCrunch]

bcftoys isn't quite as forgiving.
Cats win - .276
Jackets win - .383
Ducks win - .706
Wisc win - .373

.029

Isn't Wisonsin like a 4 point favorite now? I don't think they are factoring in Barretts injury.

[kso_FAN]

bcftoys isn't quite as forgiving.
Cats win - .276
Jackets win - .383
Ducks win - .706
Wisc win - .373

.029

Isn't Wisonsin like a 4 point favorite now? I don't think they are factoring in Barretts injury.

Probably not.

http://www.bcftoys.com/2014-game-projections/

Thursday, December 4th

69.4% PWE :: EAST CAROLINA 27, Central Florida 22

Friday, December 5th

73.8% PWE :: Northern Illinois 36, Bowling Green 27
70.6% PWE :: Oregon 33, Arizona 25

Saturday, December 6th

80.5% PWE :: Alabama 26, Missouri 13
72.4% PWE :: BAYLOR 28, Kansas State 22
96.5% PWE :: BOISE STATE 41, Fresno State 13
60.8% PWE :: CINCINNATI 27, Houston 23
83.2% PWE :: CONNECTICUT 21, SMU 10
60.7% PWE :: Georgia Tech 33, Florida State 31
80.5% PWE :: MARSHALL 24, Louisiana Tech 14
62.7% PWE :: Ohio State 25, Wisconsin 22
98.0% PWE :: OKLAHOMA 44, Oklahoma State 15
98.3% PWE :: TCU 47, Iowa State 15
62.2% PWE :: Temple 16, TULANE 13

Saturday, December 13th

89.8% PWE :: Navy 43, Army 25

[star seed 7]

Why would math need to be discreet?

[MixBerryCrunch]

I would put it at:

'Cats beat Baylor - 30%

GaTech beats FSU - 45%

Wiscy beats OSU - 60%

Oregon beats Zona - 80%


6.48% chance of making the playoff barring something weird like FSU not dropping, Wisy or GaTech jumping us etc...

[Tobias]

Why would math need to be discreet?

i didn't stay around long enough to find out

[MixBerryCrunch]

I would put it at:

'Cats beat Baylor - 30%

GaTech beats FSU - 45%

Wiscy beats OSU - 60%

Oregon beats Zona - 80%


6.48% chance of making the playoff barring something weird like FSU not dropping, Wisy or GaTech jumping us etc...

Just for comparison purposes, in this scenario Baylor would have an 18.9% chance, and OSU would have an 18% chance while FSU would have a 55% chance and Zona would have a 20% chance, obviously.  GaTech and Wisonsin are at 0% since the committee would have to do something weird to put them in.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

those were my percentages but hey they were pretty close. isn't wisconsin favored?

Yes, Wisconsin is favored based on the Barrett injury.  Vegas is giving about 7 pts for Barrett as tOSU would be a 3 pt favorite if Barrett wasn't injured.

['taterblast]

http://www.foxsportsradio.com/articles/fox-sports-daybreak-447180/jordan-stone-recaps-the-new-college-13027470/

5:20 in the video

[EllRobersonisInnocent]

I just ran my numbers and it looks like we have a 0% chance of making the playoff.

[BIG APPLE CAT]

i was having a much easier time deluding myself that we had a sporting chance saturday until pretty much everyone agreed the consensus was 3:1 dogs.  When was the last time we were that heavily favored to lose going in?

['taterblast]

i was having a much easier time deluding myself that we had a sporting chance saturday until pretty much everyone agreed the consensus was 3:1 dogs.  When was the last time we were that heavily favored to lose going in?

Baylor last year

[Rage Against the McKee]

i was having a much easier time deluding myself that we had a sporting chance saturday until pretty much everyone agreed the consensus was 3:1 dogs.  When was the last time we were that heavily favored to lose going in?

Baylor last year

I would imagine our odds of winning @OU this year were below 40%.

['taterblast]

we were like, 21 point dogs against baylor last year

[Rage Against the McKee]

we were like, 21 point dogs against baylor last year

Yeah, our odds of winning that game were probably closer to 15-20%.

[MixBerryCrunch]

i was having a much easier time deluding myself that we had a sporting chance saturday until pretty much everyone agreed the consensus was 3:1 dogs.  When was the last time we were that heavily favored to lose going in?

Baylor last year

I would imagine our odds of winning @OU this year were below 40%.

Every year Oklahoma is the toughest game IMO because Stoops has owned Snyder so much. Briles is starting to supplant him though. 

[MadCat]

bcftoys isn't quite as forgiving.
Cats win - .276
Jackets win - .383
Ducks win - .706
Wisc win - .373

.029

Isn't Wisonsin like a 4 point favorite now? I don't think they are factoring in Barretts injury.

Probably not.

http://www.bcftoys.com/2014-game-projections/

Thursday, December 4th

69.4% PWE :: EAST CAROLINA 27, Central Florida 22

Friday, December 5th

73.8% PWE :: Northern Illinois 36, Bowling Green 27
70.6% PWE :: Oregon 33, Arizona 25

Saturday, December 6th

80.5% PWE :: Alabama 26, Missouri 13
72.4% PWE :: BAYLOR 28, Kansas State 22
96.5% PWE :: BOISE STATE 41, Fresno State 13
60.8% PWE :: CINCINNATI 27, Houston 23
83.2% PWE :: CONNECTICUT 21, SMU 10
60.7% PWE :: Georgia Tech 33, Florida State 31
80.5% PWE :: MARSHALL 24, Louisiana Tech 14
62.7% PWE :: Ohio State 25, Wisconsin 22
98.0% PWE :: OKLAHOMA 44, Oklahoma State 15
98.3% PWE :: TCU 47, Iowa State 15
62.2% PWE :: Temple 16, TULANE 13

Saturday, December 13th

89.8% PWE :: Navy 43, Army 25

I've been using the bcftoys projections all year and they frankly haven't been a very accurate predictor.

[kso_FAN]

i was having a much easier time deluding myself that we had a sporting chance saturday until pretty much everyone agreed the consensus was 3:1 dogs.  When was the last time we were that heavily favored to lose going in?

Here are our % changes of winning going into every game this year.

ISU - 76.8%
AU - 46.8%
UTEP - 98.0%
Tech - 88.7%
OU - 16.3%
UT - 96.3%
OSU - 94.1%
TCU - 34.0%
WVU - 51.3%
KU - 98.0%
BU - 27.6%