CHIMERA vs SNOWBRAG

[BIG APPLE CAT]

JUDGE: a very solid showing across the board.

CHIMERA - 0.577
BOWTRUSS - 0.507
PIXIES - 0.474
DREAMYOST - 0.450
SNOWBRAG - 0.436
"null hypothesis" - 0.145

*the "null hypothesis" would be predicting the favored team to score <1 and the unfavored team to score 0.

BOWTRUSS was remarkable in the KSU/WVU game, Marshall/UAB and KU/OU.  If not for the NW/Purdue game BOWTRUSS probably would have won.

CHIMERA was even more solid than usual, but getting more actual winners correct this week set Chings apart from the rest.

[8manpick]

I'd be interested in seeing if any of us beat the Vegas spread combined with the O/U

[BIG APPLE CAT]

I'd be interested in seeing if any of us beat the Vegas spread combined with the O/U

Had you guys placed bets for head to head, over/under, and against the spread, you would have performed as follows:

PIXIES - 20 of 30
CHIMERA/SNOWBRAG - 19 of 30
DREAMYOST - 18 of 30
BOWTRUSS - 17 of 30

*This is based on where everything closed according to covers.com IIRC the lines only moved enough to have affected one outcome for RATM but otherwise the line moving was mostly inconsequential.

[8manpick]

I'd be interested in seeing if any of us beat the Vegas spread combined with the O/U

Had you guys placed bets for head to head, over/under, and against the spread, you would have performed as follows:

PIXIES - 20 of 30
CHIMERA/SNOWBRAG - 19 of 30
DREAMYOST - 18 of 30
BOWTRUSS - 17 of 30

*This is based on where everything closed according to covers.com IIRC the lines only moved enough to have affected one outcome for RATM but otherwise the line moving was mostly inconsequential.

What I meant is that, say the line is 6 points, and the O/U is 50. The implied score predicted is 28-22. Given that, what would Vegas score according to your ranking system? Would any of our algos come close?

[BIG APPLE CAT]

I'd be interested in seeing if any of us beat the Vegas spread combined with the O/U

Had you guys placed bets for head to head, over/under, and against the spread, you would have performed as follows:

PIXIES - 20 of 30
CHIMERA/SNOWBRAG - 19 of 30
DREAMYOST - 18 of 30
BOWTRUSS - 17 of 30

*This is based on where everything closed according to covers.com IIRC the lines only moved enough to have affected one outcome for RATM but otherwise the line moving was mostly inconsequential.

What I meant is that, say the line is 6 points, and the O/U is 50. The implied score predicted is 28-22. Given that, what would Vegas score according to your ranking system? Would any of our algos come close?

Oh, I see what you're saying.  If one were to bet the implied vegas score that would have yielded a 0.413.  So, everyone did a little bit better than vegas.  You and Chingon by a considerable margin.

[CrushNasty]

I'd be interested in seeing if any of us beat the Vegas spread combined with the O/U

Had you guys placed bets for head to head, over/under, and against the spread, you would have performed as follows:

PIXIES - 20 of 30
CHIMERA/SNOWBRAG - 19 of 30
DREAMYOST - 18 of 30
BOWTRUSS - 17 of 30

*This is based on where everything closed according to covers.com IIRC the lines only moved enough to have affected one outcome for RATM but otherwise the line moving was mostly inconsequential.

What I meant is that, say the line is 6 points, and the O/U is 50. The implied score predicted is 28-22. Given that, what would Vegas score according to your ranking system? Would any of our algos come close?

Oh, I see what you're saying.  If one were to bet the implied vegas score that would have yielded a 0.413.  So, everyone did a little bit better than vegas.  You and Chingon by a considerable margin.

Sorry, what is 0.413 a measure of?

[BIG APPLE CAT]

0.413 means I hope you didn't bet any of the farms bc you'd probably be lucky to break even. If anyone was putting up a 0.600 or above on the reg, call your bookie. Above a 0.800 and you should probably be a professional bookmaker. 0.900 or better -- the fix is in.

[BIG APPLE CAT]

Picks or it didn't happen 

[8manpick]

It's on my computer that is in another state, so I can't do this week unless I can turn my picks in on Monday

[8manpick]

Okay... Championship week. Championship games, Big 12, and a mid-major

Oregon 43 Arizona 29
Alabama 27 Missouri 17
Georgia Tech 34 Florida State 32

Iowa State 16 @ TCU 55
Kansas State 24 @ Baylor 32
Oklahoma State 13 @ Oklahoma 38

Louisiana Tech 24 @ Marshall 30

[CHONGS]

Oregon   36   Arizona   22
Alabama   33   Missouri   15
Georgia Tech   36   Florida State   30

Iowa State   17   TCU   55
Kansas State   34   Baylor   35
Oklahoma State   17   Oklahoma   44

Louisiana Tech   26   Marshall   35

[8manpick]

All the same winners...

[mocat]

ZONA   ORE     29   39
BAMA   MIZZ   27   20
FSU     GT       30   32
ISU     TCU     20   50
KSU     BAY     30   35
OSU    OU       21   40
LTU     MARSH 30   38

why don't we add this one to the mix? although it is hard to factor injuries in...

WISC   OHST   30   31

[8manpick]

Oops... I totally meant to
Wisc 25 OSU 23

[kslim]

POSTING FOR LATER

[8manpick]

Who won that week?

[8manpick]

[kslim]

Lol okay that will take some time to compute

[Bqqkie Pimp]

The thing about picking bowls is really trying to determine which side has the greater motivation for their meaningless exhibition.  LY, for example, I think the 'cats and Michigan were far more similar teams than the score indicated.  However, that game ended up being an easy win as it was apparent from the outset that our kids were treating the BWW as Super Bowl 45.

Thanks for posting this, though.  Having math AND a motivated team is always best!!

 

[8manpick]

Totally agree, and my formula takes into account nothing but the math. For the bowls I took out all the home field modifiers too, and don't take into account who has less travel, because I have no idea how relevant it is. I don't have any idea how to go about determining motivation for 78 different teams and account for that on the scoreboard, so this will have to do for now.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Totally agree, and my formula takes into account nothing but the math. For the bowls I took out all the home field modifiers too, and don't take into account who has less travel, because I have no idea how relevant it is. I don't have any idea how to go about determining motivation for 78 different teams and account for that on the scoreboard, so this will have to do for now.

There's really no way to do it that I can guess... All you can really do is read local reports for each team and figure out what's real and what isn't. 

FWIW, I think GMFP will be able to get the froggies up to play their game, but doubt that Briles will have the same luck with that merry band of cheap shot artists and chest thumpers.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Totally agree, and my formula takes into account nothing but the math. For the bowls I took out all the home field modifiers too, and don't take into account who has less travel, because I have no idea how relevant it is. I don't have any idea how to go about determining motivation for 78 different teams and account for that on the scoreboard, so this will have to do for now.

There's really no way to do it that I can guess... All you can really do is read local reports for each team and figure out what's real and what isn't. 

FWIW, I think GMFP will be able to get the froggies up to play their game, but doubt that Briles will have the same luck with that merry band of cheap shot artists and chest thumpers.

Yeah, Briles has spent too much time on tv telling people that his team belongs in the playoffs to allow him to convince his players that they should give a crap about the Cotton Bowl. Then again, I don't think Michigan State is nearly as good as Baylor, so if Baylor gets an early lead, they could still take off and not look back.

[catastrophe]

You're forgetting Briles has specifically said they weren't going to dwell on getting left out of the playoffs.  I don't know how you could miss that, it's like the only thing he's talked about the last week...

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Totally agree, and my formula takes into account nothing but the math. For the bowls I took out all the home field modifiers too, and don't take into account who has less travel, because I have no idea how relevant it is. I don't have any idea how to go about determining motivation for 78 different teams and account for that on the scoreboard, so this will have to do for now.

There's really no way to do it that I can guess... All you can really do is read local reports for each team and figure out what's real and what isn't. 

FWIW, I think GMFP will be able to get the froggies up to play their game, but doubt that Briles will have the same luck with that merry band of cheap shot artists and chest thumpers.

Yeah, Briles has spent too much time on tv telling people that his team belongs in the playoffs to allow him to convince his players that they should give a crap about the Cotton Bowl. Then again, I don't think Michigan State is nearly as good as Baylor, so if Baylor gets an early lead, they could still take off and not look back.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/college-sports/baylor-bears/20140101-live-follow-baylor-vs.-central-florida-in-the-fiesta-bowl.ece