There's a good chance MSU is in if they run the table.
I don't think MSU is as good as they were last season, however the big 10 is also worse than it was last season and likely to a greater degree comparatively. Oregon also looked suspect in that WSU game. So the blowout loss looks even worse and their wins are going to be very looked down upon and rightfully so. The big 10 is really, really shitty this year. Best win against a neutered OSU or mediocre PSU/Nubb? Blowout loss against the only elite team they played. Blech.
If there are four other undefeated/one-lossers then no way. Also I could see any other two-loss (possibly three) conference champions beating them out (meaning Big 12, SEC, ACC and Pac 12). I just don't see less than four teams amongst those two groups.