2014 Handicapping Thread -- Degenerates ONLY

[GoodForAnother]

10-3 weekend, pretty good card there from BP and The512

[Prince McJunkins]

Sep 13, 2014 11:54 AM   Parlay   
Risk-$5.00    To Win-$55.00   

Win   
Football - 135 Iowa State +400 for Game
Football - 137 West Virginia +140 for Game

Nice.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

10-3 weekend, pretty good card there from BP and The512

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Ok, guys... here's what's locked in for Saturday:

IU -6.5 
OU -20.5 
Iowa State +11.5 
Rutgers +3.5 
E Carolina +10 
Virginia +7 
So Carolina +7 
FAU PK 
Texas St +10 
No Illinois -10 

Flat bet all plays at 1x

Virginial ML +220 to win 1x 
So Car ML +230 to win 1x 
 
Three more plays to add:

Ga Southern +17.5 
UTSA 
South Alabama +14 

All are playing "bigger name" teams and lines should come back up as game nears and public play comes in. Waiting on late line inflation before pulling the trigger as early sharp action decreased current value.

I hope nobody tailed the UTSA lean/play.  Got to Stillwater yesterday and heard from some folks that are VERY close to the program that it would be a four TD game and ended up playing OSU. I'll still go ahead and count it in my record tho as a loss

12-3 day yesterday...  Brings total to 30-19-2 on posted plays

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

did well on college football Saturday. had ISU +11 and WVU ML but also lost UCF +11.

took a big hit on Broncos -13. might give the NFL a rest for a while.

['taterblast]

Mizzou -17
WVU +10

['taterblast]

took a big hit on Broncos -13. might give the NFL a rest for a while.

i'm pretty decent at college, but yeah, NFL is impossible. some people may be good but i am just clueless.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

took a big hit on Broncos -13. might give the NFL a rest for a while.

i'm pretty decent at college, but yeah, NFL is impossible. some people may be good but i am just clueless.

I'll be the first to admit that I, like most, are HORRIBLE at the niffel... With that said, I have done quite well the past few seasons with 2 basic Sunday strategies (3 if you count keeping plays to $50 or less).

1) FADE the top 5 consensus of the LVH Supercontest for the first 12 weeks.
2) Tail EBNOZN in the LVH Supercontest. (That dude KNOWS his crap)

[cDubya]

WVU getting 8.5 at home against Boomer Sooner. Thoughts on this line BEFORE the next statement is considered?

Secondly, leading rusher Keith Ford was just ruled out for OU. Does this one get taken off the board?

(Im not at HDIQ* like most here, just interested and enjoy the convo)


*High Degenerate IQ

[Bqqkie Pimp]

WVU getting 8.5 at home against Boomer Sooner. Thoughts on this line BEFORE the next statement is considered?

Secondly, leading rusher Keith Ford was just ruled out for OU. Does this one get taken off the board?

(Im not at HDIQ* like most here, just interested and enjoy the convo)


*High Degenerate IQ

First... It's still up and it's literally all over the board (no pun intended).  I'm seeing everything from 7.5 to 9 after opening at 11. 'taterblast got a good number at 10.  I like the home puppy in this situation. 

Curious as to what the algo will spit out once we get all the numbers loaded.

[FadeMeAU]

Bookie told me to post my picks for you to fade. Here they are:

Kansas State +9.5
UNC +2
Colorado -7
Rutgers +6
Florida +14.5
Mississippi State +10
aTm -32.5

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Bookie told me to post my picks for you to fade. Here they are:

Kansas State +9.5
UNC +2
Colorado -7
Rutgers +6
Florida +14.5
Mississippi State +10
aTm -32.5

At first glance, looks like a pretty solid card, fade...  May be a trick guys.

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

even though i  said id take a break from the NFL i didnt...

last night i said eff it and took a 4 team parlay:

Detroit Tigers -1.5
Royals U 7.5
Eagles/Colts O 54.5
Colts -3

so... Detroit wins by 2, Royals are down 3-1 or something in the bottom of the 7th, and Eagles/Colts are tied at 27-27 all around the same time. So I'm 99% sure I'm going to hit this parlay as long as the Colts kick a FG. they are about to get kicked off to with like 3 minutes to go...

i took a live bet of Eagles ML for half the payout of the parlay to hedge that bad boy.

felt really good to win after getting slaughtered this weekend! 

[Bqqkie Pimp]

even though i  said id take a break from the NFL i didnt...

last night i said eff it and took a 4 team parlay:

Detroit Tigers -1.5
Royals U 7.5
Eagles/Colts O 54.5
Colts -3

so... Detroit wins by 2, Royals are down 3-1 or something in the bottom of the 7th, and Eagles/Colts are tied at 27-27 all around the same time. So I'm 99% sure I'm going to hit this parlay as long as the Colts kick a FG. they are about to get kicked off to with like 3 minutes to go...

i took a live bet of Eagles ML for half the payout of the parlay to hedge that bad boy.

felt really good to win after getting slaughtered this weekend! 

https://screen.yahoo.com/super-bowl-gambling-memories-000000765.html

[FadeMeAU]

Bookie told me to post my picks for you to fade. Here they are:

Kansas State +9.5
UNC +2
Colorado -7
Rutgers +6
Florida +14.5
Mississippi State +10
aTm -32.5

At first glance, looks like a pretty solid card, fade...  May be a trick guys.

We shall see. I like to think I'm a little better at selecting sides than I was when I acquired this handle several years ago.

[mocat]

aTm -32.5

SMU is so, so very bad. This is going to be 60-3 type stuff

[Bqqkie Pimp]

aTm -32.5

SMU is so, so very bad. This is going to be 60-3 type stuff

I don't get what's holding it down... Hell, UNT covered that number vs the ponies.   Is aggy in a huge lookahead or something?

 

[mocat]

i've mentioned before in other threads, but snowbrag needs another week or so to get some more reliable data before i can use it to do my bookie pimp'ing, so take this fwiw.
these are 5 games i like:

Mississippi State +10
Michigan State -22
Texas State +14
Georgia State +35
Louisville -13

[FadeMeAU]

i've mentioned before in other threads, but snowbrag needs another week or so to get some more reliable data before i can use it to do my bookie pimp'ing, so take this fwiw.
these are 5 games i like:

Mississippi State +10
Michigan State -22
Texas State +14
Georgia State +35
Louisville -13

I'd take Mich St and Louisville at those numbers, but I'm seeing them at -45.5 and -26.5 respectively. I like the Miss St play. LSU's offense has been underwhelming IMO with Jennings at QB. And MSU's defense should be pretty stout against LSU's power run attack.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

I like Miss State too, and I think Texas State may be sneaky good again this fall.

The total for our game was opened at 70, QUICKLY bet down to 66 and I'm even seeing some 64/64.5 now.  Why are the books begging for over $$$?

[FadeMeAU]

I like Miss State too, and I think Texas State may be sneaky good again this fall.

The total for our game was opened at 70, QUICKLY bet down to 66 and I'm even seeing some 64/64.5 now.  Why are the books begging for over $$$?

Maybe it's not being seen as a huge scoring affair. Snyder and ball control. Auburn's defense is soft and will allow possession. Also interesting that the line has come down to 8.5. I've seen a few 8s show up and then disappear. I don't see it as a 38-34 type of game. I think it's more low 60s total.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Vegas must think we hold Auburn to field goals instead of touchdowns.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

I like Miss State too, and I think Texas State may be sneaky good again this fall.

The total for our game was opened at 70, QUICKLY bet down to 66 and I'm even seeing some 64/64.5 now.  Why are the books begging for over $$$?

Maybe it's not being seen as a huge scoring affair. Snyder and ball control. Auburn's defense is soft and will allow possession. Also interesting that the line has come down to 8.5. I've seen a few 8s show up and then disappear. I don't see it as a 38-34 type of game. I think it's more low 60s total.

If you call it 8/65, then the books' algo is saying roughly 36.5-28.5.  I will be VERY surprised if your defense can hold our offense under 30

[FadeMeAU]

I like Miss State too, and I think Texas State may be sneaky good again this fall.

The total for our game was opened at 70, QUICKLY bet down to 66 and I'm even seeing some 64/64.5 now.  Why are the books begging for over $$$?

Maybe it's not being seen as a huge scoring affair. Snyder and ball control. Auburn's defense is soft and will allow possession. Also interesting that the line has come down to 8.5. I've seen a few 8s show up and then disappear. I don't see it as a 38-34 type of game. I think it's more low 60s total.

If you call it 8/65, then the books' algo is saying roughly 36.5-28.5.  I will be VERY surprised if your defense can hold our offense under 30

If Auburn doesn't hold KState under 30, it will go over because I think that will give Auburn more possessions. I think both offenses are potent. I just think Snyder will be able to control the ball and limit Auburn's possessions, thus keeping the scoring lower than expected.

But I could certainly see this becoming a track meet, ala Auburn/aTm last year.

[Prince McJunkins]

aTm -32.5

SMU is so, so very bad. This is going to be 60-3 type stuff

I'm jumping on this too. SMU is in shambles and, as stated on shaggy, Sumlin will want to put on a show for the DFW crowd.

Also, KU -3 vs. CMU. I think KU wins, but I'm staying away from that one.