Phil Steele projects Big 12 records Reply
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last season, Baylor captured its first Big 12 title and BCS berth and notched the most wins in school history (11). Incredibly, the Bears outgained their conference opponents by 223 yards per game, the best mark in the Big 12 since Oklahoma was plus-267 YPG in 2003. While the Bears were upset by UCF in the Fiesta Bowl, the Sooners did give the conference a jolt thanks to their upset win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, which is the primary reason they enter 2014 as the favorite.
Despite some recent player dismissals, both Texas and TCU could score major upsets in Big 12 play this season, while Oklahoma State -- due to its inexperience -- could be in store for a major drop-off.
Here are my 2014 projected Big 12 standings:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Oklahoma Sooners
Projected Record: 12-0
Early lines on toughest matchups: at TCU (minus-3), Baylor (minus-6)
While analysts and Vegas experts can overreact to bowl wins, OU does have 14 returning starters, including an offensive line that returns 107 starts (15th-most in the country). They have my No. 12 offense, No. 8 defense and No. 9 special teams. The Sooners also have the path of least resistance among the top four contenders. They're 57-4 at home the past decade, and in their five true road games this season, they take on just one team (Texas Tech) that had a winning record last year. Plus, they don't have to play a Big 12 title game, and they get the revenge game against Baylor at home. I have OU favored in all 12, but four are by a TD or less.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Baylor Bears
Projected record: 11-1
Early lines on toughest matchups: at Texas (minus-3), Oklahoma (plus-6)
The defending Big 12 champs return only 10 starters, but that group includes QBBryce Petty, who threw for 4,200 yards and accounted for 46 total TDs. He's QB1 for my No. 3 overall QB unit, and he'll be throwing to my No. 1 set of WRs, including five of the Bears' top six pass-catchers from 2013. I actually rank their entire offensive unit No. 1 in the country, and I have the Bears favored by at least a TD in 10 games. The exceptions of course are the road trips to Texas and Oklahoma. But don't forget that they beat both by a combined score of 71-22 last season.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. Texas Longhorns (Tie)
Projected Record: 8-4
Early lines on toughest matchups: Baylor (plus-3), Oklahoma (plus-6)
The Longhorns have underachieved in each of the past four years, going 30-21 and missing a bowl in 2010. Enter Charlie Strong. The new coach inherits 14 returning starters and a top-10 defense that includes my No. 4 defensive line, No. 2 linebacking corps and No. 9 set of defensive backs. So even with a rash of July dismissals, he'll have plenty to work with. Strong says Texas isn't a national contender yet, but I do think it will compete for the Big 12 title provided its front line players stay healthy. I have the Longhorns as clear underdogs in just three games (UCLA, Baylor, Oklahoma), with two others listed as toss-ups.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. TCU Horned Frogs (Tie)
Projected Record: 9-3
Early lines on toughest matchups: at Baylor (plus-7), at Texas (plus-4)
TCU is my most improved team in the country, even without Devonte Fields, the Big 12's preseason defensive player of the year, who was released from the university in early August. The Horned Frogs, who get 15 starters back, were better than their 4-8 record last season, losing four games by three points or fewer. I still think TCU can reach double-digit wins (counting the bowl) in '14, and I see them as an underdog only against OU, at Baylor and at Texas, but by a TD or less in each.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Kansas State Wildcats
Projected Record: 8-4
Early lines on toughest matchups: at Oklahoma (plus-13), at Baylor (plus-10)
After a tough 2-4 start to last season, the Wildcats won six of their last seven games, highlighted by a 31-14 thumping of Michigan in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Although this season's team has just 11 returning starters, most of them are key players, including quarterback Jake Waters and All-Americans Tyler Lockett at wide receiver andRyan Mueller at defensive end. In addition to that, no head coach in the country replaces talent via the junior college route better than LHC Bill Snyder, who has pulled 13 upsets in the five years since he returned to Manhattan. I peg the Wildcats as an underdog in four games this year (Auburn, at Oklahoma, at TCU and at Baylor).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Projected Record: 7-5
Early lines on toughest matchups: Florida State (plus-21), at Oklahoma (plus-14)
Coach Mike Gundy has done a tremendous job getting the Cowboys to double-digit wins in three of the past four years, but they face a daunting challenge in 2014. Overall, OSU has just eight returning starters and lost 32 lettermen (most in the country). The offense loses its quarterback and top two receivers; the defense was hit even harder, with the loss of eight of its top nine tacklers. I currently have the Cowboys an underdog in five games (Florida State, at TCU, at Kansas State, at Baylor and at Oklahoma). There is no way they can match last year's double-digit win total.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Projected Record: 7-5
Early lines on toughest matchups: at TCU (plus-10), Baylor (plus-13)
The Red Raiders had a topsy-turvy 2013 season that saw them start 7-0 before suffering five straight losses. They got redemption with the Holiday Bowl upset over Arizona State, and coach Kliff Kingsbury has 13 returning starters to work with, including nine on offense, led by quarterback Davis Webb. The defense, which has lost three of its top four tacklers, has allowed at least 30 points a game in each of the past four seasons. Currently, I have them favored in only six games, but they'll be more stable -- after using three quarterbacks last season -- and are capable of at least an upset or two.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. West Virginia Mountaineers
Projected Record: 4-8
Early lines on toughest matchups: Alabama (plus-24), at Texas (plus-14)
The Mountaineers went 4-8 last season, their worst since 2001. This fall, they are in much better shape with 13 returning starters, including their top two quarterbacks, top three receivers and eight of their top 11 tacklers on defense. However, they have my fourth-toughest schedule in the country and could be an underdog in as many as nine games. If they don't pull off a couple of upsets, coach Dana Holgorsen might not be around for 2015.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9. Iowa State Cyclones
Projected Record: 3-9
Early lines on toughest matchups: Oklahoma (plus-17), at Texas (plus-17)
After making three bowls in four seasons, the Cyclones slid to 3-9 in 2013. This season, they have 10 returning starters on the offensive side of the ball (82 percent of yards back) and 15 starters overall, their most-experienced team since 2009. They did suffer some key losses on defense, including their top two tacklers, but coach Paul Rhoads usually gets the most out of his teams. Still, ISU will be challenged by my sixth-toughest schedule in the country, and I have them a clear underdog in nine games with the other three (North Dakota State, Toledo, at Kansas) rated as toss-ups.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10. Kansas Jayhawks
Projected Record: 3-9
Early lines on toughest matchups: at Baylor (plus-24), at Oklahoma (plus-28)
Kansas did show some improvement last season, going from one win to three and snapping a 27-game Big 12 losing streak. This year the Jayhawks return 17 starters, the most at KU in more than 20 years. The offense also welcomes Miami (Ohio) transfer Nick Harwell, who has 3,166 career receiving yards, and the defense returns nine of its top 10 tacklers, led by two-time All-Big 12 linebacker Ben Heeney. On paper, this looks like coach Charlie Weis' best team yet, but I do have them listed as an underdog in 10 games because of the lack of talent -- I rank just one of their units (DBs, No. 30) in the top 45 of my positional rankings.
8/19 9:40 AM | IP: Logged
