Why is Jevon playing?

[michigancat]

how many attempts are required to make a definite conclusion?

whatever the number is, it's more than 11.

Well, I'm guessing the number you have is more than 45 and less than 164, but I was hoping you'd be more specific so I can reasonably make conclusions about other players and compare.

[Mixed-Nutz]

Edwards got those numbers using double the possessions.

edwards has shot enough threes that it's pretty easy to conclude he's not wasn't a good shooter.  with johnson, and especially thomas, the data are less numerous, and thus less convincing.

Heard he has become a "deadeye."

[420seriouscat69]

I like a lot of the pieces of Jevon's game, but he drives me crazy at the same time. With all the hype he had coming in, you think we would have heard about his woeful FT shooting.

[sys]

Heard he has become a "deadeye."

southie shot 44% last year and this year is back under 30%.  i'll believe edwards has changed when i see it (over an extended period of time).

[sys]

Well, I'm guessing the number you have is more than 45 and less than 164, but I was hoping you'd be more specific so I can reasonably make conclusions about other players and compare.

for the level of certainty you are hinting at, i'd say well over 164.  but you can be a lot more certain of 164 than of 46, and a lot more certain of 46 than of 11.

[sys]

edwards had a decent ft% though.  it's probable that he's a better than 27% shooter if he takes a reasonable number of shots for his skill level.

[michigancat]

Well, I'm guessing the number you have is more than 45 and less than 164, but I was hoping you'd be more specific so I can reasonably make conclusions about other players and compare.

for the level of certainty you are hinting at, i'd say well over 164.  but you can be a lot more certain of 164 than of 46, and a lot more certain of 46 than of 11.

Sure, but how much more certain of 164 can you be than 46? I mean, Southwell shot 39% on 146 attempts before this season. I think there's still a lot of volatility even at 164 attempts (and Shane supports this anecdotally).

And I was just going to post about his FT%!

[TownieCat]

Surprised no one has made a Gottlieb comparison yet, at least in regards to FT%. Doug was 45% for his career. He also only averaged only 5.2 ppg game, but his assist numbers were off the charts good.

[sys]

I think there's still a lot of volatility even at 164 attempts (and Shane supports this anecdotally).

yeah, i agree.  you just have to use the data that are available and try to discount your certainty appropriately.  you could calculate how much more certain you should be of 164 attempts than 46 if you wanted to (no link, use google).

[michigancat]

I think there's still a lot of volatility even at 164 attempts (and Shane supports this anecdotally).

yeah, i agree.  you just have to use the data that are available and try to discount your certainty appropriately.  you could calculate how much more certain you should be of 164 attempts than 46 if you wanted to (no link, use google).

I've been googling for some time and this is ridiculously difficult w/o shitloads of data neatly organized.

This was interesting, though:

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/predicting_individual_3_point_production

[ksufan44]

I totally understand the argument he doesn't know the offense too well yet, and was mainly playing off energy, because of his lack of practice. But what I don't get is what on earth was he doing by himself? You would imagine probably practicing his shots and free throws. Can we get some insidery info from the student manager as to what his shooting percentage was when he was rebounding for him?

[Steffy08]

Foster is a shooting guard, plain and simple.  Thomas is going to start next year at point, and everybody here is going to love him. Nigel will be a damn good back-up.   Edwards will get 22 minutes a game next year:  7 at the two and 15 at the three.

Big 12 solo champs next year.

[michigancat]

Foster is a shooting guard, plain and simple.

it is not that simple, at all.

[sunny_cat]

If there's one thing in this thread that's absolutely correct, it's that Marcus' best shot (probably only shot) at an NBA career is at point guard.

[MakeItRain]

Edwards has shown he isn't the worst shooter of all time, for one.

not so far from it.

Edwards' EFG has been 44.8 and 47.1.  Jevon is currently at 26.2.

DeAndre Kane his soph/jr years at Marshall =  47.3% 2pt, 24.9% 3pt, and only 56.5% FT
Kane this year at Isu = 51.6% 2pt, 34.3% 3pt

Kane seems to have benefitted from being in a good offensive system. Why can't Edwards do better in a better offensive system

Kane scores a great deal of points by being physically imposing over the other point guards in the conference, he pulls other guards into the post and plays well with his back to the basket. Edwards won't have the luxury of mismatching the guys guarding him.

[MakeItRain]

If there's one thing in this thread that's absolutely correct, it's that Marcus' best shot (probably only shot) at an NBA career is at point guard.

that isn't happening at all

[sunny_cat]

If there's one thing in this thread that's absolutely correct, it's that Marcus' best shot (probably only shot) at an NBA career is at point guard.

that isn't happening at all

I don't think so either fwiw.

[Skipper44]

Surprised no one has made a Gottlieb comparison yet, at least in regards to FT%. Doug was 45% for his career. He also only averaged only 5.2 ppg game, but his assist numbers were off the charts good.

I brought Doug up in the other JT thread and I think it could be a very spot on comparision.  Gottlieb was pretty bad as Soph and actually got worse as his career went on. 

Season            School  G  FG FGA  FG%  2P 2PA  2P% 3P 3PA  3P%  FT FTA  FT% TRB AST STL 1997-98   Oklahoma State 29  55 133 .414  43  92 .467 12  41 .293  36  74 .486  60 201  41 1998-99   Oklahoma State 34  50 159 .314  35  97 .361 15  62 .242  32  72 .444  74 299  49 1999-00   Oklahoma State 34  77 188 .410  68 139 .489  9  49 .184  39  90 .433  86 293  53 Career    Oklahoma State 97 182 480 .379 146 328 .445 36 152 .237 107 236 .453 220 793 143

His senior year they went 27-7 (12-4) got a 3 seed and lost in the elite 8 to a Florida team that was national runner up with a PG that wouldn't shoot and was comically bad at the foul line.  It worked because they an NBA wing in Mason and conscienceless gunner in Adkins.  I see us with a somewhat similar make up the next 2 years with Foster and Edwards.

[kso_FAN]

I think there's still a lot of volatility even at 164 attempts (and Shane supports this anecdotally).

yeah, i agree.  you just have to use the data that are available and try to discount your certainty appropriately.  you could calculate how much more certain you should be of 164 attempts than 46 if you wanted to (no link, use google).

I've been googling for some time and this is ridiculously difficult w/o shitloads of data neatly organized.

This was interesting, though:

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/predicting_individual_3_point_production

This is really cool. The blog post where Cannon introduced 3 Point Score as an alternative to just using 3PT% was particularly interesting and made some sense.

I plugged in this year's K-State players to his formula and it looks like this:
Name   3PT Score
Marcus Foster   1.041
Will Spradling   1.025
Shane Southwell   1.006
Westicles   1.005
Jack Karapetyan   1.000
Nino Williams   1.000
Thomas Gipson   1.000
D.J. Johnson   0.999
Nigel Johnson   0.996
Omari Lawrence   0.996
Jevon Thomas   0.995
Vulture   0.985
Shawn Meyer   0.972
Ryan Schultz   0.924

Drew Cannon wrote those while he was at Duke in school and he had an internship with Dave Telep at age 15. After he graduated, he was hired by Stevens at Butler and then went with him to the Celtics.

[Lefty]

I think there's still a lot of volatility even at 164 attempts (and Shane supports this anecdotally).

yeah, i agree.  you just have to use the data that are available and try to discount your certainty appropriately.  you could calculate how much more certain you should be of 164 attempts than 46 if you wanted to (no link, use google).

I've been googling for some time and this is ridiculously difficult w/o shitloads of data neatly organized.

This was interesting, though:

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/predicting_individual_3_point_production

This is really cool. The blog post where Cannon introduced 3 Point Score as an alternative to just using 3PT% was particularly interesting and made some sense.

I plugged in this year's K-State players to his formula and it looks like this:
Name   3PT Score
Marcus Foster   1.041
Will Spradling   1.025
Shane Southwell   1.006
Westicles   1.005
Jack Karapetyan   1.000
Nino Williams   1.000
Thomas Gipson   1.000
D.J. Johnson   0.999
Nigel Johnson   0.996
Omari Lawrence   0.996
Jevon Thomas   0.995
Vulture   0.985
Shawn Meyer   0.972
Ryan Schultz   0.924

Drew Cannon wrote those while he was at Duke in school and he had an internship with Dave Telep at age 15. After he graduated, he was hired by Stevens at Butler and then went with him to the Celtics.

_Fan can you do Shane from last year? I bet he would be close to the top ten kenpom details.

[kso_FAN]

Last year:

Name   3PT Score
Shane Southwell   1.039
Martavious Irving   1.030
Angel Rodriguez   1.025
Will Spradling   1.023
Rodney McGruder   1.017
Adrian Diaz   1.000
D.J. Johnson   1.000
Jordan Henriquez   1.000
Michael Orris   1.000
Shawn Meyer   1.000
Thomas Gipson   1.000
Nino Williams   0.998
Omari Lawrence   0.994
Ryan Schultz   0.947

[michigancat]

I'm not quite sure I understand what value "3PS" adds. Is it just shooting well and often?

[Powercat Posse]

Edwards has shown he isn't the worst shooter of all time, for one.

not so far from it.

Edwards' EFG has been 44.8 and 47.1.  Jevon is currently at 26.2.

DeAndre Kane his soph/jr years at Marshall =  47.3% 2pt, 24.9% 3pt, and only 56.5% FT
Kane this year at Isu = 51.6% 2pt, 34.3% 3pt

Kane seems to have benefitted from being in a good offensive system. Why can't Edwards do better in a better offensive system

Kane scores a great deal of points by being physically imposing over the other point guards in the conference, he pulls other guards into the post and plays well with his back to the basket. Edwards won't have the luxury of mismatching the guys guarding him.

1)That doesn't explain how he improved his 3pt shooting by nearly 10%.
2)So Kane couldn't have used his size and strength the last 2 seasons when he was playing far worse competiton

Kane's game has improved a lot by playing in Hoiberg's system.  There is no denying that.   I don't know if Edwards will be a lot better under oscar's system... but to say he won't for sure is just being unpractical.   

[sys]

I'm not quite sure I understand what value "3PS" adds. Is it just shooting well and often?

yes - those are the only two variables being assessed, so it's impossible for it to consider anything else.  i don't see a ton of value in the statistic either.  aside from just providing a single metric that combines volume and accuracy, i think most of what value it has is that the value is centered on 1 - so you can easily conceptualize the value of a player's contribution in shooting threes as positive or negative to an average team's success.

[catzacker]

Stats seem to be getting too stat-y.