@OU, @TECH, @OSU

[sunny_cat]

More like meh-ltdown.

It just didn't last very long.

[MakeItRain]

Is michigancat the only sensible poster left? Good grief with the "we can't close out games" talking point.

I don't think we'll go 0-3 in those games either but its worth noting that last time this came up michigancat was all like "blaahhh you must obey the advanced metrics, sample size too small, hhhhrrrrrr" but now its like "wait the stats say our odds of winning any of these three are very good, meh I have a good feeling"

[Cire]

We're 1 and effing 5 on the road

[michigancat]

Is michigancat the only sensible poster left? Good grief with the "we can't close out games" talking point.

I don't think we'll go 0-3 in those games either but its worth noting that last time this came up michigancat was all like "blaahhh you must obey the advanced metrics, sample size too small, hhhhrrrrrr" but now its like "wait the stats say our odds of winning any of these three are very good, meh I have a good feeling"

wut

[EMAWmeister]

If other teams were just going out and being road warriors I'd be more concerned.  Iowa State got thirty balled @WVU.  If we win out at home, I really don't give a crap if we end up at 10-8.  We're not playing for this season anyways.

[MakeItRain]

If other teams were just going out and being road warriors I'd be more concerned.  Iowa State got thirty balled @WVU.  If we win out at home, I really don't give a crap if we end up at 10-8.  We're not playing for this season anyways.

wth? Iowa State should never be a measuring stick for anything other than mediocrity. Shame on you.


Good teams win on the road, I'm frustrated because we're capable but time and time again we have lacked the poise necessary to finish.

[Jackstack99EMAW]

If other teams were just going out and being road warriors I'd be more concerned.  Iowa State got thirty balled @WVU.  If we win out at home, I really don't give a crap if we end up at 10-8.  We're not playing for this season anyways.

wth? Iowa State should never be a measuring stick for anything other than mediocrity. Shame on you.


Good teams win on the road, I'm frustrated because we're capable but time and time again we have lacked the poise necessary to finish.

We've also had chances to build leads early in game in some of these but have failed to do that as well.

[MakeItRain]

luck quotient/factor??? kenpom metric??? is one metric that I won't accept nor should any right thinking person accept, but I'd be interested in seeing ours in relation to the rest of the conference

[EMAWmeister]

If other teams were just going out and being road warriors I'd be more concerned.  Iowa State got thirty balled @WVU.  If we win out at home, I really don't give a crap if we end up at 10-8.  We're not playing for this season anyways.

wth? Iowa State should never be a measuring stick for anything other than mediocrity. Shame on you.


Good teams win on the road, I'm frustrated because we're capable but time and time again we have lacked the poise necessary to finish.

I'm not using them as our measuring stick.  They are a more experienced team and more talented and they get absolutely thunderfucked on the road.  We're absurdly young, and struggle to jump out to an early lead and then struggle to capitalize on our runs to bring us back into the game.  That should come with experience.

[sys]

luck quotient/factor??? kenpom metric??? is one metric that I won't accept nor should any right thinking person accept, but I'd be interested in seeing ours in relation to the rest of the conference

kstate is + .031 in luck, 108th luckiest in the nation.  isu and ut are the only luckier teams in the big 12.  the big 12 hasn't been a very lucky group of teams this year.

[michigancat]

luck quotient/factor??? kenpom metric??? is one metric that I won't accept nor should any right thinking person accept, but I'd be interested in seeing ours in relation to the rest of the conference

You can accept whatever you want. I disagree that there is any reason to expect more out of this season overall, but feel free to melt down as you see fit.

[MakeItRain]

If other teams were just going out and being road warriors I'd be more concerned.  Iowa State got thirty balled @WVU.  If we win out at home, I really don't give a crap if we end up at 10-8.  We're not playing for this season anyways.

wth? Iowa State should never be a measuring stick for anything other than mediocrity. Shame on you.


Good teams win on the road, I'm frustrated because we're capable but time and time again we have lacked the poise necessary to finish.

I'm not using them as our measuring stick.  They are a more experienced team and more talented and they get absolutely thunderfucked on the road.  We're absurdly young, and struggle to jump out to an early lead and then struggle to capitalize on our runs to bring us back into the game.  That should come with experience.

not true

speaking of Iowa State, they have been saying this for years, at some point people (non ISU fans of course they don't believe in holding coaches accountable, just say you're unlucky & call everyone else cheaters) are going to have to factor in the one link on these teams, the head coach.

[michigancat]

MiR is right, ISU has virtually identical experience as KSU.

[MakeItRain]

luck quotient/factor??? kenpom metric??? is one metric that I won't accept nor should any right thinking person accept, but I'd be interested in seeing ours in relation to the rest of the conference

kstate is + .031 in luck, 108th luckiest in the nation.  isu and ut are the only luckier teams in the big 12.  the big 12 hasn't been a very lucky group of teams this year.

how can advanced metrics be credibly used to measure the abstract when the purpose of advanced metrics is to minimize the effect of the abstract?

luck quotient/factor??? kenpom metric??? is one metric that I won't accept nor should any right thinking person accept, but I'd be interested in seeing ours in relation to the rest of the conference

You can accept whatever you want. I disagree that there is any reason to expect more out of this season overall, but feel free to melt down as you see fit.

Who is melting down? Are you arguing to argue again? I agreed with you, I said I don't think we will go 0-3 in this stretch.

[michigancat]

I'm telling you to accept whatever you want.

[nicname]

If other teams were just going out and being road warriors I'd be more concerned.  Iowa State got thirty balled @WVU.  If we win out at home, I really don't give a crap if we end up at 10-8.  We're not playing for this season anyways.

You're better than this.

[sys]

kstate is + .031 in luck, 108th luckiest in the nation.  isu and ut are the only luckier teams in the big 12.  the big 12 hasn't been a very lucky group of teams this year.

how can advanced metrics be credibly used to measure the abstract when the purpose of advanced metrics is to minimize the effect of the abstract?

i don't know what you mean.  i think you probably know this, but "luck" is just a cute name.

[MakeItRain]

kstate is + .031 in luck, 108th luckiest in the nation.  isu and ut are the only luckier teams in the big 12.  the big 12 hasn't been a very lucky group of teams this year.

how can advanced metrics be credibly used to measure the abstract when the purpose of advanced metrics is to minimize the effect of the abstract?

i don't know what you mean.  i think you probably know this, but "luck" is just a cute name.

to signify what? I really don't know

[sys]

to signify what? I really don't know

some measure of the difference between the actual record and the predicted winning %.  not real sure of the details.

[nicname]

to signify what? I really don't know

some measure of the difference between the actual record and the predicted winning %.  not real sure of the details.

luck = variance 

[bones129]

OP: We win one...maybe two.

[sys]

luck = variance 

unexplained variance.

[nicname]

luck = variance 

unexplained variance.

Is there a difference?

[michigancat]

it's direction + magnitude of variance

[michigancat]

you should always expect variance - it's the magnitude and direction that is unpredictable. I think that's what sys is saying.