Not an UnderStatenment, Cats take a turnover for the worse; WVU 2 ADV

[nicname]

I think our inability to take care of the ball at key times is hard to deal with given our other offensive challenges. If we just had trouble shooting or just had trouble handling the ball we'd be fine.

Every possession is a "key" possession.

The way we've handled the late possessions in close and tied situations the last 3 road games would indicate that this team is, likely subconsciously, having trouble thinking like computerized data machines.

Yes. We all love numbers and advanced can tell us a lot, but they don't notice when a senior wets his pants at the site of a double-team and steps out of bounds, and plays like it.

The "eye-test" has its merits.

[michigancat]

I think our inability to take care of the ball at key times is hard to deal with given our other offensive challenges. If we just had trouble shooting or just had trouble handling the ball we'd be fine.

Every possession is a "key" possession.

The way we've handled the late possessions in close and tied situations the last 3 road games would indicate that this team is, likely subconsciously, having trouble thinking like computerized data machines.

Yes. We all love numbers and advanced can tell us a lot, but they don't notice when a senior wets his pants at the site of a double-team and steps out of bounds, and plays like it.

The "eye-test" has its merits.

Advanced stats accurately noticed that possession was a turnover.

[MakeItRain]

michigancat are you arguing a point here or just disagreeing with every point made? I'm confused by that rebuttal, nicname didn't say anything against the merits of advanced metrics.

[sys]

arguing anything based on a single possession is inherently arguing against the merits of advanced metrics.

[mocat]

This last page or so reminds me that this is such an 8th grade board with no in-depth discussion and too many pictures of bazongas

[MakeItRain]

arguing anything based on a single possession is inherently arguing against the merits of advanced metrics.

I didn't take the single possession that he described literally.  If we want to go back to my point, I'd bet that in these close games, even the ones we have won, our TOr the last 5 minutes of those games is if not the highest 5 minute segment, is very close. at every point in the game having equal meaning to the players playing the game.

[michigancat]

arguing anything based on a single possession is inherently arguing against the merits of advanced metrics.

I didn't take the single possession that he described literally.  If we want to go back to my point, I'd bet that in these close games, even the ones we have won, our TOr the last 5 minutes of those games is if not the highest 5 minute segment, is very close. at every point in the game having equal meaning to the players playing the game.

In the last three losses, our TO% was 18.9%, and our overall TO% is 18.3. But that's a pretty small sample size (only 37 possessions), so it doesn't really say a whole lot about whether or not this team is particularly worse in close games with less than 5 minutes remaining. It definitely confirms that you are selectively remembering turnovers and seeing what you want to see - there is no way those were our worst 5 minute segments.

I'll add in the wins - (OSU and OU) and see what happens!

[michigancat]

arguing anything based on a single possession is inherently arguing against the merits of advanced metrics.

I didn't take the single possession that he described literally.  If we want to go back to my point, I'd bet that in these close games, even the ones we have won, our TOr the last 5 minutes of those games is if not the highest 5 minute segment, is very close. at every point in the game having equal meaning to the players playing the game.

For the last 5 minutes of UT, WVU, ISU, OU, and OSU, our TO rate was 16.1%. You're just remembering the turnovers more vividly, that's all. It's natural for humans to do that.

[Dr Rick Daris]

arguing anything based on a single possession is inherently arguing against the merits of advanced metrics.

I didn't take the single possession that he described literally.  If we want to go back to my point, I'd bet that in these close games, even the ones we have won, our TOr the last 5 minutes of those games is if not the highest 5 minute segment, is very close. at every point in the game having equal meaning to the players playing the game.

For the last 5 minutes of UT, WVU, ISU, OU, and OSU, our TO rate was 16.1%. You're just remembering the turnovers more vividly, that's all. It's natural for humans to do that.

hey did you guys know that the last few percentages of anything greatly influence your recollection of it? like this is really true. horrible date but the last ten minutes were good? GREAT DATE! bad vacation but the flight home was fun? GREAT VACATION! great day at work but the last hour was bad? guess what? THAT WAS A BAD DAY!

[nicname]

If you haven't noticed a pattern of increasingly frustrating plays towards the end of the last three road games then you must not be watching the games. Whether the team is actually performing worse in "crunch time" than in other, less noticed possessions, is something that I can't answer.  Maybe those mistakes are just magnified by the time and place and they make them all game long, or maybe this team is playing worse at the end of these ballgames. '

It's probably a combination of both.

[michigancat]

arguing anything based on a single possession is inherently arguing against the merits of advanced metrics.

I didn't take the single possession that he described literally.  If we want to go back to my point, I'd bet that in these close games, even the ones we have won, our TOr the last 5 minutes of those games is if not the highest 5 minute segment, is very close. at every point in the game having equal meaning to the players playing the game.

For the last 5 minutes of UT, WVU, ISU, OU, and OSU, our TO rate was 16.1%. You're just remembering the turnovers more vividly, that's all. It's natural for humans to do that.

hey did you guys know that the last few percentages of anything greatly influence your recollection of it? like this is really true. horrible date but the last ten minutes were good? GREAT DATE! bad vacation but the flight home was fun? GREAT VACATION! great day at work but the last hour was bad? guess what? THAT WAS A BAD DAY!

Yes! (I just read Thinking Fast and Slow)

If you haven't noticed a pattern of increasingly frustrating plays towards the end of the last three road games then you must not be watching the games. Whether the team is actually performing worse in "crunch time" than in other, less noticed possessions, is something that I can't answer.  Maybe those mistakes are just magnified by the time and place and they make them all game long, or maybe this team is playing worse at the end of these ballgames. '

It's probably a combination of both.

Did you guys also know that humans think they find patterns that don't really exist? It's just how our brains work. (Read about it in the same book!)

Also, there is a way to check whether or not a team performs worse in "crunch time" than regular possessions, and we actually do better when it comes to turnovers. (I don't think it's statistically significant enough to say we're actually "better", but it's significant enough to prove nicname and MiR wrong).

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

arguing anything based on a single possession is inherently arguing against the merits of advanced metrics.

This is intellectually dishonest. 

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

arguing anything based on a single possession is inherently arguing against the merits of advanced metrics.

I didn't take the single possession that he described literally.  If we want to go back to my point, I'd bet that in these close games, even the ones we have won, our TOr the last 5 minutes of those games is if not the highest 5 minute segment, is very close. at every point in the game having equal meaning to the players playing the game.

For the last 5 minutes of UT, WVU, ISU, OU, and OSU, our TO rate was 16.1%. You're just remembering the turnovers more vividly, that's all. It's natural for humans to do that.

Since you don't watch the games, I'll help you out.  Our meltdowns don't start until after the under four TO and only occur on the road.  So throw out OU and OSU and the first 90 seconds of the five minute stretch you're "analyzing."

[michigancat]

arguing anything based on a single possession is inherently arguing against the merits of advanced metrics.

I didn't take the single possession that he described literally.  If we want to go back to my point, I'd bet that in these close games, even the ones we have won, our TOr the last 5 minutes of those games is if not the highest 5 minute segment, is very close. at every point in the game having equal meaning to the players playing the game.

For the last 5 minutes of UT, WVU, ISU, OU, and OSU, our TO rate was 16.1%. You're just remembering the turnovers more vividly, that's all. It's natural for humans to do that.

Since you don't watch the games, I'll help you out.  Our meltdowns don't start until after the under four TO and only occur on the road.  So throw out OU and OSU and the first 90 seconds of the five minute stretch you're "analyzing."

18.5% (our average is 18.3%).

[MakeItRain]

So higher than average but not outlier high, fair enough.

[kso_FAN]

Its simple; when you play poor defense on the road, you lose.

I went back and looked at the league road games for every season since Huggins was hired at K-State. The Cats are 32-31 (.508) on the road during that time.

The key defensive stat is holding opponents under 1.07 ppp on the road. When K-State does that, the Cats are 26-5 (.839).

However, when the Cats allow teams to score 1.07 ppp or more, they've only won 6 out of 32 games (.188). UT, ISU, and WVU all scored 1.07 or more. ISU and WVU scored 1.09 or better, and when that happens K-State is only 4-24 in league road games (.143).

Offensively, 1.07 is also the key breaking point. K-State won 20 games and only lost 3 (.870) on the road when scoring 1.07 ppp or more. When scoring fewer than 1.07 ppp the Cats are 12-28 (.300). In all 3 of those road losses the Cats scored 1.03 ppp or worse. The Cats are 7 and 24 (.226) when scoring that poorly on the road.

The biggest problem in all 3 of these "winnable" road losses has been awful play in the first half. The opponents have outscored K-State 1.19 ppp to .95 ppp over the course of those 3 games and it has been too much to overcome. K-State has had the advantage in the 2nd half 1.04 to 1.00 ppp, its just not enough.

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

Our PPP would be higher in road games if we didn't have so many TOs in the last 5 minutes of games, IMHO

I would guess FTR is markedly lower/ higher in roadies, contributing to PPP, which can only be explained by the atrocious officiating this conference arranges.

[nicname]

The first half defense has been awful.

FYI - Under five minutes in losses @UT, ISU and WVU

36 possessions, 8 turnovers, 8-27 field goals, 1-10 3FG, 8-15 FT, 8-18 on Oreb opps.

TO% - 22, FG% - 29, 3FG% - 10, FT% - 8-15, Oreb% - 44

To illustrate MIR's point.

3:10   Marcus Foster made Jumper.   67-68   
3:01   West Virginia Timeout
3:01   Kansas St Timeout
2:43                                               67-68   Juwan Staten missed Layup.
2:43                                               67-68   Remi Dibo Offensive Rebound.
2:40                                               67-68   Remi Dibo missed Dunk.
2:40   Kansas St Defensive Rebound.   67-68   
2:39   Official TV Timeout
2:23   Thomas Gipson Turnover.           67-68   
2:09                                               67-71   Remi Dibo made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Devin Williams.
1:55   Foul on Thomas Gipson.           67-71   
1:55                                               67-72   Terry Henderson made Free Throw.
1:55                                               67-73   Terry Henderson made Free Throw.
1:54   Marcus Foster Turnover.           67-73   
1:52                                               67-73   Gary Browne Steal.
1:51                                               67-73   Foul on Devin Williams.
1:51   Marcus Foster missed Free Throw.   67-73   
1:51   Kansas St Deadball Team Rebound.   67-73   
1:51   Marcus Foster made Free Throw.   68-73   
1:20                                               68-73   Juwan Staten Turnover.
1:19   Shane Southwell Steal.           68-73   
1:16   Shane Southwell Turnover.           68-73   

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

Is anyone else not surprised michigancat lied to support his POV?

[MakeItRain]

The first half defense has been awful.

FYI - Under five minutes in losses @UT, ISU and WVU

36 possessions, 8 turnovers, 8-27 field goals, 1-10 3FG, 8-15 FT, 8-18 on Oreb opps.

TO% - 22, FG% - 29, 3FG% - 10, FT% - 8-15, Oreb% - 44

To illustrate MIR's point.

3:10   Marcus Foster made Jumper.   67-68   
3:01   West Virginia Timeout
3:01   Kansas St Timeout
2:43                                               67-68   Juwan Staten missed Layup.
2:43                                               67-68   Remi Dibo Offensive Rebound.
2:40                                               67-68   Remi Dibo missed Dunk.
2:40   Kansas St Defensive Rebound.   67-68   
2:39   Official TV Timeout
2:23   Thomas Gipson Turnover.           67-68   
2:09                                               67-71   Remi Dibo made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Devin Williams.
1:55   Foul on Thomas Gipson.           67-71   
1:55                                               67-72   Terry Henderson made Free Throw.
1:55                                               67-73   Terry Henderson made Free Throw.
1:54   Marcus Foster Turnover.           67-73   
1:52                                               67-73   Gary Browne Steal.
1:51                                               67-73   Foul on Devin Williams.
1:51   Marcus Foster missed Free Throw.   67-73   
1:51   Kansas St Deadball Team Rebound.   67-73   
1:51   Marcus Foster made Free Throw.   68-73   
1:20                                               68-73   Juwan Staten Turnover.
1:19   Shane Southwell Steal.           68-73   
1:16   Shane Southwell Turnover.           68-73

That's atrocious, needless to say that is absolutely outlier performance or lack thereof

[nicname]

5:05   Will Spradling made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Jevon Thomas.   66-66   
4:48                                                                                                       66-66   DeAndre Kane missed Dunk.
4:48                                                                                                       66-66   Melvin Ejim Offensive Rebound.
4:39                                                                              66-69   Georges Niang made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Melvin Ejim.
4:32   Nino Williams missed Jumper.                                  66-69   
4:32   Nino Williams Offensive Rebound.                          66-69   
4:25   Kansas St Timeout
4:15   D.J. Johnson Turnover.                                          66-69   
4:15                                                                              66-69   DeAndre Kane Steal.
4:03                                                                              66-71   DeAndre Kane made Jumper.
4:03   Foul on D.J. Johnson.                                                  66-71   
4:03                                                                              66-72   DeAndre Kane made Free Throw.
3:46                                                                              66-72   Foul on Georges Niang.
3:46   Official TV Timeout
3:46   Marcus Foster made Free Throw.                                  67-72   
3:46   Marcus Foster made Free Throw.                                  68-72   
3:43                                                                              68-72   Melvin Ejim missed Jumper.
3:43   Will Spradling Defensive Rebound.                          68-72   
3:34   Foul on Will Spradling.                                          68-72   
3:34                                                                              68-73   Melvin Ejim made Free Throw.
3:34   Will Spradling Turnover.                                          68-72   
3:34                                                                              68-74   Melvin Ejim made Free Throw.

[michigancat]

5:05   Will Spradling made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Jevon Thomas.   66-66   
4:48                                                                                                       66-66   DeAndre Kane missed Dunk.
4:48                                                                                                       66-66   Melvin Ejim Offensive Rebound.
4:39                                                                              66-69   Georges Niang made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Melvin Ejim.
4:32   Nino Williams missed Jumper.                                  66-69   
4:32   Nino Williams Offensive Rebound.                          66-69   
4:25   Kansas St Timeout
4:15   D.J. Johnson Turnover.                                          66-69   
4:15                                                                              66-69   DeAndre Kane Steal.
4:03                                                                              66-71   DeAndre Kane made Jumper.
4:03   Foul on D.J. Johnson.                                                  66-71   
4:03                                                                              66-72   DeAndre Kane made Free Throw.
3:46                                                                              66-72   Foul on Georges Niang.
3:46   Official TV Timeout
3:46   Marcus Foster made Free Throw.                                  67-72   
3:46   Marcus Foster made Free Throw.                                  68-72   
3:43                                                                              68-72   Melvin Ejim missed Jumper.
3:43   Will Spradling Defensive Rebound.                          68-72   
3:34   Foul on Will Spradling.                                          68-72   
3:34                                                                              68-73   Melvin Ejim made Free Throw.
3:34   Will Spradling Turnover.                                          68-72   
3:34                                                                              68-74   Melvin Ejim made Free Throw.

That Will Spradling "turnover" was not a turnover - it was the play that was reviewed where Ejim got a technical, but we retained the ball. 7 turnovers in 37 possessions = 18.5%.

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

So, in our 3 blown roadies we're turning the ball over at a 23% greater rate than average. :-o

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

5:05   Will Spradling made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Jevon Thomas.   66-66   
4:48                                                                                                       66-66   DeAndre Kane missed Dunk.
4:48                                                                                                       66-66   Melvin Ejim Offensive Rebound.
4:39                                                                              66-69   Georges Niang made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Melvin Ejim.
4:32   Nino Williams missed Jumper.                                  66-69   
4:32   Nino Williams Offensive Rebound.                          66-69   
4:25   Kansas St Timeout
4:15   D.J. Johnson Turnover.                                          66-69   
4:15                                                                              66-69   DeAndre Kane Steal.
4:03                                                                              66-71   DeAndre Kane made Jumper.
4:03   Foul on D.J. Johnson.                                                  66-71   
4:03                                                                              66-72   DeAndre Kane made Free Throw.
3:46                                                                              66-72   Foul on Georges Niang.
3:46   Official TV Timeout
3:46   Marcus Foster made Free Throw.                                  67-72   
3:46   Marcus Foster made Free Throw.                                  68-72   
3:43                                                                              68-72   Melvin Ejim missed Jumper.
3:43   Will Spradling Defensive Rebound.                          68-72   
3:34   Foul on Will Spradling.                                          68-72   
3:34                                                                              68-73   Melvin Ejim made Free Throw.
3:34   Will Spradling Turnover.                                          68-72   
3:34                                                                              68-74   Melvin Ejim made Free Throw.

That Will Spradling "turnover" was not a turnover - it was the play that was reviewed where Ejim got a technical, but we retained the ball. 7 turnovers in 37 possessions = 18.5%.

We got the ball after they shot FTs. They called a foul on us on that play. And the loose ball was the result of careless play.

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

But keep lying about stuff and hope no one notices