Foster with a redemption game tomorrow night finishing with 20+?? What are the odds?
40/60
More like 70/30. JMHO.
No reason for
, I have some logic behind my thoughts.
First, Foster has been good at home. He's hitting 50% from 2, 42% from 3, and 70% on FTs in the OOD. Scoring 16 points per game, but more importantly 35 points per 100 possessions he's on the floor. Also around 4 boards and 3 assists per game.
Second, he's been even better in Big 12 play at home (outside of the Tech game). Even with the Tech game included he's hitting 62% on 2s, 48% on 3s, and 67% on FTs. 17.2 points per game and more impressively 42 points per 100 possessions. About the same on boards and assists.
Third, he's been through playing poorly on the road and great at home against the same opponent as we saw Saturday. He was terrible in Austin (1-6 on 3s, 3-12 overall, 8 points, 19 points/100 poss), but rebounded with a great game Saturday. His numbers in Lawrence were similar to the numbers in Austin. I'm not saying he's going to score 34 points at a rate of 70+ points per 100 possessions like he did vs Texas, but I think its likely he plays well, scores at a rate in the 30s/per 100 and ends up with around 20 points.
The key for me is that we get offense from 2 of our big 3. I think Foster will bring it, then we need to look for Shane and Gip. Shane was fantastic against KU in the OOD last year and Gip played well in Lawrence. Based on that (limited I know, but I'm an optimist), I think we can expect an efficient 45-50 from our big 3, then its guys like NuWill, Nino, etc. throwing in a normal decent performance to build off that base. If we get a great game from one of them, then its a bonus (and we win comfortably).
Then I factor in that we've played not just good, but great defense at home. KU has enough young players that I think our crowd and that defense will bother them.
That all leads me to a Cat win as I said earlier in this post. Granted, its based on an optimistic twisting of the numbers, but its still based on stats. Do with that what you want.
