KSU defensive efficiency through the years.

[michigancat]

According to kenpom:

Year   AdjD   Rank
2014   91.6   12
2013   95.0   56
2012   92.3   21
2011   93.4   25
2010   91.3   16
2009   95.5   49
2008   96.0   52
2007   95.0   39
2006   96.6   69
2005   99.1   100
2004   95.2   44
2003   96.5   66

[kso_FAN]

#bruceketball

[_33]

Is this something that we should expect to remain this good all year or are people just randomly missing a ton of shots and we're going to come back to the mean?  I know we're good on defense, but are we THIS good is what I am asking.

[kso_FAN]

Is this something that we should expect to remain this good all year or are people just randomly missing a ton of shots and we're going to come back to the mean?  I know we're good on defense, but are we THIS good is what I am asking.

I seriously doubt the 3PT% against us remains at 25%. And someone is going to jump up and hit 45% or something at some point, it just happens.

[sunny_cat]

According to kenpom:

Year   AdjD   Rank
2014   91.6   12
2013   95.0   56
2012   92.3   21
2011   93.4   25
2010   91.3   16
2009   95.5   49
2008   96.0   52
2007   95.0   39
2006   96.6   69
2005   99.1   100
2004   95.2   44
2003   96.5   66

Elite Eight or bust.

[dal9]

I don't think the 3 point D is a fluke. At the same time, the D Efficiency is bound to get worse as the  level of competition goes up in conference.

[sunny_cat]

I don't think the 3 point D is a fluke. At the same time, the D Efficiency is bound to get worse as the  level of competition goes up in conference.

Agreed

[michigancat]

I don't think the 3 point D is a fluke. At the same time, the D Efficiency is bound to get worse as the  level of competition goes up in conference.

Agreed

It is a fluke.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_3-point_line_is_a_lottery/

Still, the overall numbers are very good.

[sunny_cat]

I don't think the 3 point D is a fluke. At the same time, the D Efficiency is bound to get worse as the  level of competition goes up in conference.

Agreed

It is a fluke.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_3-point_line_is_a_lottery/

Still, the overall numbers are very good.

Welp

[kso_FAN]

It's not a complete fluke, but 25% is ridiculous and probably not realistic.

[michigancat]

It's not a complete fluke, but 25% is ridiculous and probably not realistic.

I think a ridiculous and not realistically sustainable statistic can be considered a complete fluke.

oscar's 3Pt D has only been below 30% once, when it was 29.6% in 2009.

[dal9]

Alright, so I'm new here, but I'm  going to $#!+ on kenpom  a little bit.  Not saying his numbers are wrong, but let's look at the NBA, where there is some real coaching going on. 

Graph 1 is relationship between 3 point D% this year and last year, for all NBA teams.  There's a little bit of a slope, but not that much going on. 

Graph 2 is only the teams in the NBA who have the same coach this year and last (and so are presumably running the same defensive system). Well: much stronger relationship.  (R squared is .15)




[attachment deleted by admin]

[sunny_cat]

Alright, so I'm new here, but I'm  going to $#!+ on kenpom  a little bit.  Not saying his numbers are wrong, but let's look at the NBA, where there is some real coaching going on. 

Cursing is allowed as long as you keep your posts family-oriented.

[dal9]

here are the raw numbers if anyone wants them
team   newcoach   thisyear   lastyear
Indiana   0   .326   .327
Oklahoma City   0   .336   .346
Golden State   0   .344   .347
Portland   0   .352   .34
LA Lakers   0   .339   .357
Washington   0   .357   .349
Chicago   0   .37   .346
Dallas   0   .359   .359
Miami   0   .371   .35
San Antonio   0   .368   .353
Houston   0   .354   .367
New York   0   .366   .357
Orlando   0   .364   .359
New Orleans   0   .351   .374
Toronto   0   .364   .361
Minnesota   0   .357   .369
Utah   0   .356   .37
Detroit   0   .37   .36
Boston   1   .337   .342
Memphis   1   .36   .338
Denver   1   .339   .363
LA Clippers   1   .33   .373
Milwaukee   1   .363   .348
Philadelphia   1   .373   .349
Phoenix   1   .336   .388
Cleveland   1   .353   .372
Atlanta   1   .346   .379
Sacramento   1   .391   .355
Brooklyn   1   .39   .366
Charlotte   1   .375   .388

[dal9]

Alright, so I'm new here, but I'm  going to $#!+ on kenpom  a little bit.  Not saying his numbers are wrong, but let's look at the NBA, where there is some real coaching going on. 

Cursing is allowed as long as you keep your posts family-oriented.

thanks, I do like to curse. 

[michigancat]

Alright, so I'm new here, but I'm  going to $#!+ on kenpom  a little bit.  Not saying his numbers are wrong, but let's look at the NBA, where there is some real coaching going on. 

Graph 1 is relationship between 3 point D% this year and last year, for all NBA teams.  There's a little bit of a slope, but not that much going on. 

Graph 2 is only the teams in the NBA who have the same coach this year and last (and so are presumably running the same defensive system). Well: much stronger relationship.  (R squared is .15)

that's good stuff (and feel free to crap away), but it's a really small sample size and weak correlation.

[sys]

evaluate the numbers after the season.

[_33]

What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.

[michigancat]

evaluate the numbers after the season.

Yes, I will update this thread. But these numbers are the most encouraged I've been by oscar, even though we've been lucky with opponents' threes.

[michigancat]

What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.

they get lucky

[kso_FAN]

What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.

The best three point defense is to not let your opponent shoot very many 3s.

Other than that, what you say is solid.

[pvegs]

What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.

The best three point defense is to not let your opponent shoot very many 3s.

Other than that, what you say is solid.

Makes sense. Against O-State Brown and Forte only took 6 combined while Smart took 6 by himself. We've only allowed 247 attempts on the season which is #2 in conference. I'd also say we've played some pretty awful offensive teams like TCU, Tulane, etc and run into some luck/terrible shooting nights like Marshall Henderson going 2-13.

[husserl]

What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.

Maybe you try extra hard to minimize the proportion of attempts given up from the corner (especially in the nba)? 

[Cartierfor3]

According to kenpom:

Year   AdjD   Rank
2014   91.6   12
2013   95.0   56
2012   92.3   21
2011   93.4   25
2010   91.3   16
2009   95.5   49
2008   96.0   52
2007   95.0   39
2006   96.6   69
2005   99.1   100
2004   95.2   44
2003   96.5   66

 

[michigancat]

What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.

The best three point defense is to not let your opponent shoot very many 3s.

Other than that, what you say is solid.

Makes sense. Against O-State Brown and Forte only took 6 combined while Smart took 6 by himself. We've only allowed 247 attempts on the season which is #2 in conference. I'd also say we've played some pretty awful offensive teams like TCU, Tulane, etc and run into some luck/terrible shooting nights like Marshall Henderson going 2-13.

Well, I don't want to take the time to post the graph, but I charted last year's Opp3FG% vs. Opp3FGA% and there is basically zero correlation between the two.