Oklahoma State has been highly touted all year for good reason, in Smart they may have the best college player in the country, plus they surround him with very good players in Brown, Nash, and Forte. Of note, all four are scorers and average over 28 points per 100 possessions; Smart leads at 32.8, Forte at 32.5, Brown at 29.1 and Nash at 28.2. Its no surprise that their offense is 4th nationally in kenpom's adjusted system at 1.18 points per possession while shooting 56.6% (#9) with a TO% of 14.9% (#21) and a FT rate of 51.2% (#28). Defensively the Pokes are solid as well, #17 overall at .93 ppp, allowing only 42.7% (#11), 41.5% on 2PTs (#12) and forcing a TO% of 21.5% (#38). All while playing at the Big 12's 4th fastest pace of 70.6 possessions per game.
The major factor in the loss of Cobbins to watch will be on the defensive end as Cobbins is a major factor in OSU's paint defense (2PT% above) and blocking 15.8% of their opponents 2PT attempts (#18). He and Murphy have split time all year and this will move a much less experienced Layton Hammonds into their defensive rotation. Plus, OSU isn't a strong team on the boards (minimal .6% advantage in OR%) and losing their 2nd best rebounder won't help. The loss of Clarke changes their perimeter rotation and he is their 2nd best 3PT shooter, but over 1 game I think his loss isn't nearly as big a deal compared to Cobbins, though their combined loss is significant.
I think defensively K-State can contain OSU's offense to around 1.00-1.03 points per possession, the key will be getting enough offense (shooting) to win. I will watch closely oscar's 35/35 3PT mark (attempt% and 3PT%) as that will likely be a big factor to watch. Another to watch will be TO%, something K-State usually wins, but OSU is both good at forcing them and protecting the ball. Its likely OSU will shoot better than K-State eFG%, but if the Cats can manage to win TO% and OR%, then this game likely comes down to the last minute.
Thomas playing 25 solid minutes, Foster, Gip, and Shane scoring, plus some solid role minutes from Westicles and Will get the Big 12 title defense started right in the OOD in a low possession (61) game.
Cats 67-Pokes 64
