Author Topic: Big 12 Four Factors - FINAL 2014 Rankings (Read 14750 times)

TownieCat · « **Reply #50 on:** January 30, 2014, 04:57:58 PM »

That assist %

ksupamplemousse · « **Reply #51 on:** January 31, 2014, 12:30:30 AM »

I like how there is no apparent order to the overall standings. BAYLOR FTW!!!

kso_FAN · « **Reply #52 on:** January 31, 2014, 07:59:28 AM »

Updated pace and sorted standings.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #53 on:** February 02, 2014, 04:21:23 PM »

Near halfway Big 12 ADV stats.

K-State's offense continues to be a liability. I think oscar has made significant adjustments to get this offense scoring, namely getting Gip more touches in the paint and more ball screens on the perimeter. Against WVU the Cats limited 3PT attempts and owned scoring in the lane. Still, TOs and FT rate are big issues that the Cats can't overcome despite a significant advantage in eFG%. Defensively the Cats aren't great, but to win in this league I think oscar's teams need to approach 1.10 points per possession and the combination of a high TO% combined with not forcing a lot of TOs is really holding this team back. If those categories don't improve for the Cats in the 2nd half, then its likely the Cats will finish 4-5/5-4 and be squarely on the bubble going into March.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #54 on:** February 02, 2014, 05:40:54 PM »

Our Defense at home has been very good. 4 games. Allowing only 39.2 eFG% and 0.97. We have been able to basicly push on TO%. We have 43 TOs and our opp 44.

Defense on the road has been another story. Ku game was awful. Isu made half of their 18 3s and shot 56.5% eFG on us. W Virg got to the line way too much. 1/4 of their poss they got to the FT line and got 28 pts from the stripe.

Then on offense.... These past 3 road games, we only ave 0.96 ppp in the first half. Not good enough. Especially when u combine it with allowing 1.19 in the first half

kso_FAN · « **Reply #55 on:** February 06, 2014, 10:44:54 AM »

The middle of this league is becoming even more of a mess with WVU moving their way into the mix. However, WVU's recent 3 game winning streak is their only run of "quality" wins on the season, so they have a lot of work to do if they want to be more than an NIT team. Plus, like K-State, I think they'll have a lot of trouble winning on the road.

K-State must continue to win at home (a split in the next 2 minimum) and find a way to win at Tech (and hopefully Baylor). Also, the Cats probably need the rest of the league (besides KU) to win home games and lose road games for the most part. If the Cats can win home games they'll have a couple more quality wins but missing opportunities to win some road games hurt the Cats' chances to be anything more than a 8 seed.

It will also be interesting to see how OSU responds as this season goes along, that team has the makings of a Baylor-esque implosion with Ford in charge of things in Stillwater. They still wins some games and beat good teams, but its also likely they will continue to lose some games they "shouldn't".

sys · « **Reply #56 on:** February 06, 2014, 01:03:10 PM »

i was looking at remaining schedules earlier this week. isu's is very easy, they're going to go on a run. tech and wvu have it rough - tech's gonna get crushed and it's going to be hard for wvu to stay on the bubble (glass half full - they have opportunities...).

ou has a couple of tough road games - but they've got 5 homes v 3 roads to go. they're almost up there with isu in terms of likelihood of finishing strong. ut has almost all tough road games and easy homes left.

this sat and then monday are really important for kstate.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #57 on:** February 07, 2014, 01:07:34 AM »

WV has got work to do to get into the tourney. In the non-con they had 5 losses and 0 wins vs top 100. 4 tough road games left and KU at home. They have to get to at least 10-8. IF they did, their overall record would be 18-13 and they would have 2 more top 50 wins on top of the 2 they have now (ksu ou). They would probably sneak in if they did that, but no guarantee

Yeah, Isu has Tcu and WV twice, Tech at home and at Baylor. They could go 5-1 right there. Then OKSt/UT at home and at Us.

Texas at OU could be a big game. Ou sweeps them with win. Texas would be in great shape to finish 2nd if they get that W. ( Texas beat KU so they would then win tiebreaks with OU and Isu)

Osu not playing well and now has 3 of next 4 on road.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #58 on:** February 09, 2014, 09:58:44 AM »

Another round of games and more jostling in this crazy league.

K-State's blow out win over Texas moved them to 2nd in points per possession differential and 1st in defensive efficiency/ppp. K-State's offensive efficiency still lags despite being 3rd in the league in eFG%, mainly because of too many turnovers and average offensive boarding. However, the Cats surprisingly lead in eFG% and 2PT% defense despite being mediocre in block%. Weber and Lowrey's team defensive scheme has made it difficult for opponents to get good shots, especially in Manhattan, and this has helped overcome the lack of steals and turnovers forced (until yesterday's Texas game).

3 really important games coming up this week. 1st, KU at the OOD (more on that later), but OSU at UT and ISU at WVU will be very important mid-week games as well. Even if Smart plays, this looks like OSU's 5th straight league loss and 7th overall and we'll see if Huggins' team can continue to hold serve at home as ISU goes for their 4th straight league win.

Mixed-Nutz · « **Reply #59 on:** February 09, 2014, 01:14:11 PM »

Here is a little insight.

Quote

Kansas State's defense is very sound, and they do a really nice job of forcing opponents into a lot of long two-point jumpers. Kansas State forces 35.3% of opponent shots to be two-point jumpers (2nd best in the Big 12), and opponents shoot 31.2% on those two-point jumpers (again 2nd best in the Big 12).

http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2014/02/morning-news-oklahoma-state-debacle-smu.html

kso_FAN · « **Reply #60 on:** February 09, 2014, 01:28:36 PM »

Quote from: Mixed-Nutz on February 09, 2014, 01:14:11 PM

Here is a little insight.

Quote
Kansas State's defense is very sound, and they do a really nice job of forcing opponents into a lot of long two-point jumpers. Kansas State forces 35.3% of opponent shots to be two-point jumpers (2nd best in the Big 12), and opponents shoot 31.2% on those two-point jumpers (again 2nd best in the Big 12).

http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2014/02/morning-news-oklahoma-state-debacle-smu.html

I saw that after I posted the numbers, very interesting.

sys · « **Reply #61 on:** February 09, 2014, 03:09:27 PM »

i haven't paid much attention to bball outside the big 12, but i have a hard time accepting that osu at 9-9 is definitely in the tournament. they beat a lot of poor to average teams by large margins in the pre-season, garnering a gaudy kenpom rating. but they didn't actually beat many good teams (1-1 v memphis is really all they have, maybe include colorado if you think they can finish strong). .500 in the big 12 with very little in the non-con isn't on the bubble? i find that very difficult to believe.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #62 on:** February 09, 2014, 03:14:56 PM »

Quote from: sys on February 09, 2014, 03:09:27 PM

i haven't paid much attention to bball outside the big 12, but i have a hard time accepting that osu at 9-9 is definitely in the tournament. they beat a lot of poor to average teams by large margins in the pre-season, garnering a gaudy kenpom rating. but they didn't actually beat many good teams (1-1 v memphis is really all they have, maybe include colorado if you think they can finish strong). .500 in the big 12 with very little in the non-con isn't on the bubble? i find that very difficult to believe.

True, they are only 3-5 against Top 50 RPI teams right now, 6-6 vs Top 100. Extremely bubbly.

sys · « **Reply #63 on:** February 09, 2014, 05:49:42 PM »

i don't think they're going to make it. wvu either. five teams in.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #64 on:** February 09, 2014, 10:11:29 PM »

Quote from: sys on February 09, 2014, 03:09:27 PM

i haven't paid much attention to bball outside the big 12, but i have a hard time accepting that osu at 9-9 is definitely in the tournament. they beat a lot of poor to average teams by large margins in the pre-season, garnering a gaudy kenpom rating. but they didn't actually beat many good teams (1-1 v memphis is really all they have, maybe include colorado if you think they can finish strong). .500 in the big 12 with very little in the non-con isn't on the bubble? i find that very difficult to believe.

They were 12-1 in non con. They beat Colorado when they were at full strength (Leading scorer Dinwiddie now done for year) and playing well. Memphis is probably about a 6 seed right now. That's 2 decent wins. Both are in top 30 RPI.

To compare, my current 9 seeds (VCU, Gonz, Stan, Xav) have 3 combined Top 50 wins in the non con. My 10 seeds (Cal, SMU, Colo, Minn) have 2 Top 50 wins in the non con. Right now the 9-11 seeds just are not that strong. I am sure there will be people that disagree with me, but I think OK St is still in the 8-9 seed range right now.

Big 12 being rated #1 conference could go a long ways to helping. Big 10 last year was stronger than Big 12 this year, but Minn lost 11 of last 16 and went 8-10, lost only B10 tourney game.... and they still got in as an 11 seed

If Osu goes 9-9, I will be shocked if they don't make it. Whether they make it to 9-9 is the big question. Looks tough right now. If they finish up at 8-10 they likely are gonna be 3-7 vs the Big 12 teams in the top 50. At that point, it just depends on how weak those last 4 teams getting in really are. Minn was 4-7 vs Big 10 teams in top 50 and had 1 good non con victory last season

sys · « **Reply #65 on:** February 09, 2014, 10:32:41 PM »

yeah, i haven't kept up with the field this year at all. just that historically .500 in the big 12 with an unimpressive ooc slate is not a safe place to be.

i agree that they're probably going to go 8-10 or worse and make the question academic.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #66 on:** February 13, 2014, 08:40:30 AM »

K-State continues to get it done on defense; especially eFG%, 2PT%, and 3PT%. TO% differential is evening out, though OR% has been slipping, putting the Cats right in the middle of the league for both. K-State and Texas continue to swap the lead in efficiency defense in one of the most offensive seasons ever for the Big 12. This is the first year that no defense has been under 1.00 ppp ever, though there are still a lot of games left. Conceivably K-State, Texas, or Kansas could slide down below 1.00 ppp by the end of the season, but I don't think that's likely.

cDubya · « **Reply #67 on:** February 13, 2014, 09:53:41 AM »

These stats never get old!!

Thanks, _Fan.

Stevesie60 · « **Reply #68 on:** February 13, 2014, 12:03:29 PM »

_FAN, I know kenpom showed some research that basically proved that 3pt% defense is random. But we've continued to have one of the lowest in the league, and it's stayed low way longer than it should have if it was random. I mean, if it was random wouldn't all the 3pt% defenses in the Big 12 end up being just about the same by the end conference play, or is tied to 2pt% defense, or does kenpom do math like mocat?

kso_FAN · « **Reply #69 on:** February 13, 2014, 12:20:52 PM »

Quote from: Stevesie60 on February 13, 2014, 12:03:29 PM

_FAN, I know kenpom showed some research that basically proved that 3pt% defense is random. But we've continued to have one of the lowest in the league, and it's stayed low way longer than it should have if it was random. I mean, if it was random wouldn't all the 3pt% defenses in the Big 12 end up being just about the same by the end conference play, or is tied to 2pt% defense, or does kenpom do math like mocat?

I suppose there are just some things that are a little bit difficult to quantify.

I know these have been read by most, but I'll repost them. kenpom's explanation of 3PTA% compared to 3PT% is always the best place to start, but I think this is one of kenpom's best pieces explaining his thoughts on 3PT defense and he ties it somewhat to 2PT% defense. This one talks about his "Boeheim exception" in which he does acknowledge that defenses have some control of the quality of the 3s that opponent's take. Finally, as kenpom has added information about average possession length to his stats this year, he acknowledges that defensive possession length can have an affect on 3PT% as well.

Stevesie60 · « **Reply #70 on:** February 13, 2014, 12:27:06 PM »

Well yeah, I figured the only way to have a good 3pt% defense is to make opposing teams take bad 3's. Whether they be at the end of the shot clock, or over a closing out defender, or just from bad spots on the floor.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #71 on:** February 13, 2014, 12:29:55 PM »

Quote from: Stevesie60 on February 13, 2014, 12:27:06 PM

Well yeah, I figured the only way to have a good 3pt% defense is to make opposing teams take bad 3's. Whether they be at the end of the shot clock, or over a closing out defender, or just from bad spots on the floor.

I'd say for us its a good combination of all of those on our part combined with being a little bit lucky.

Stevesie60 · « **Reply #72 on:** February 13, 2014, 12:36:40 PM »

Okay, so you and kenpom have both said that you can have some control over forcing opposing team to take low quality shots. How can you both still say it's random? Of course there's "luck" involved to some extent, but there's plenty of luck involved in 2pt% defense as well. And I bet if you were able to break it down, though I doubt you (or anyone) would be able to, the teams that continually force rushed 3's just happen to be luckier throughout the year.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #73 on:** February 13, 2014, 12:43:31 PM »

Quote from: Stevesie60 on February 13, 2014, 12:36:40 PM

Okay, so you and kenpom have both said that you can have some control over forcing opposing team to take low quality shots. How can you both still say it's random? Of course there's "luck" involved to some extent, but there's plenty of luck involved in 2pt% defense as well. And I bet if you were able to break it down, though I doubt you (or anyone) would be able to, the teams that continually force rushed 3's just happen to be luckier throughout the year.

True, I don't think its nearly as much luck as kenpom makes it out to be. Part of the problem is that your definition of a "rushed 3" is probably different than someone else's as well.

That said, I think its a real stretch to compare 3PT% defense to FT% defense for example. However, I do think that there is luck involved and I understand his logic behind calling 3PT% defense a lottery. Even going back to Monday, KU had multiple missed 3s that were wide open looks, not rushed or pressured, but they just missed them and good shooters missed them.

michigancat · « **Reply #74 on:** February 13, 2014, 01:11:58 PM »

Quote from: Stevesie60 on February 13, 2014, 12:03:29 PM

But we've continued to have one of the lowest in the league, and it's stayed low way longer than it should have if it was random.

I'm not sure this is correct.