Author Topic: Big 12 Four Factors - FINAL 2014 Rankings (Read 14679 times)

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #100 on:** February 16, 2014, 06:57:34 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 16, 2014, 05:20:23 PM

I don't mind the lower 3PTA% on the road with that 3PT%. Seems to be a real effort to take it to the paint. We had bad moments, but our offense did some really great things against Baylor's zone with a ridiculous assist%. That said, at some point down the stretch you need players to make plays that don't require assists and we didn't get that.

Well, if the 3PTA and 3PT% don't improve then we need to get to the FT line more and make a better %. Road 2 pt shots are 50.0%. TO% is a little higher on the road (compared to home). But the 0.99 ppp in the 6 road games just isn't getting it done. Like to see if we can ave 1.05-1.06 these last 3 road games. (We get 1.12 at home for comparison). That doesn't meen we get that road win we really need, but it helps our chances for sure.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #101 on:** February 20, 2014, 08:45:05 AM »

Nearly the 3/4 mark of the Big 12 schedule. Cats continue with the same issues; Big 12's best defense, 2nd from the bottom on offense, TO problems, etc. Hopefully there is enough there to win out at home and get at least 1 road win.

Cire · « **Reply #102 on:** February 20, 2014, 08:56:53 AM »

They shoot the three well, we defend it well

They don't O rebound particluarly well but we give them up.

We turn it over, they don't force a bunch

They've got a good offense and an ok defense.

Interesting matchup.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #103 on:** February 20, 2014, 08:11:36 PM »

It's almost a little frustrating our offense isn't better. 50.5 eFG is good enough for the 3rd best in the league.

Last year, our offense was pretty good and had a better 52.8 eFG (2nd best Big12, 32nd nationally)

The TO% is higher this year (1.1%) and the OR% is down (1.6) but the FTR is up. We are taking about the same number of FGAs, 55.4 last year 55.8 this year..... and the FTAs are up from 16 to 22 per game.

However... I guess if we were shooting 52.8 eFG (not 50.5) and we were making 72.8% FT (not 66.1).... we would be getting right at 4.0 more pts a game.... thus improving the PPP by .06. And that is with the TO and OR numbers being what they are right now

Most of our issues are on the road. 29.5% from 3pt (and only 27% of shot from 3) and 63.2 FT%
Last year on the road, we shot well, 39.4 3pt% (35% shots were 3PTA). 10 percent higher than this year
If we keep the 3PTA down, then we just got to make closer to 35-36% and get that FT% up to around 70%

Lefty · « **Reply #104 on:** February 20, 2014, 09:35:52 PM »

Quote from: Powercat Posse on February 20, 2014, 08:11:36 PM

It's almost a little frustrating our offense isn't better. 50.5 eFG is good enough for the 3rd best in the league.

Last year, our offense was pretty good and had a better 52.8 eFG (2nd best Big12, 32nd nationally)

The TO% is higher this year (1.1%) and the OR% is down (1.6) but the FTR is up. We are taking about the same number of FGAs, 55.4 last year 55.8 this year..... and the FTAs are up from 16 to 22 per game.

However... I guess if we were shooting 52.8 eFG (not 50.5) and we were making 72.8% FT (not 66.1).... we would be getting right at 4.0 more pts a game.... thus improving the PPP by .06. And that is with the TO and OR numbers being what they are right now

Most of our issues are on the road. 29.5% from 3pt (and only 27% of shot from 3) and 63.2 FT%
Last year on the road, we shot well, 39.4 3pt% (35% shots were 3PTA). 10 percent higher than this year
If we keep the 3PTA down, then we just got to make closer to 35-36% and get that FT% up to around 70%

so i'll take that as if we are due to shoot better on the road. regress back to the mean.

MakeItRain · « **Reply #105 on:** February 20, 2014, 11:12:14 PM »

Quote from: Lefty on February 20, 2014, 09:35:52 PM

Quote from: Powercat Posse on February 20, 2014, 08:11:36 PM
It's almost a little frustrating our offense isn't better. 50.5 eFG is good enough for the 3rd best in the league.

Last year, our offense was pretty good and had a better 52.8 eFG (2nd best Big12, 32nd nationally)

The TO% is higher this year (1.1%) and the OR% is down (1.6) but the FTR is up. We are taking about the same number of FGAs, 55.4 last year 55.8 this year..... and the FTAs are up from 16 to 22 per game.

However... I guess if we were shooting 52.8 eFG (not 50.5) and we were making 72.8% FT (not 66.1).... we would be getting right at 4.0 more pts a game.... thus improving the PPP by .06. And that is with the TO and OR numbers being what they are right now

Most of our issues are on the road. 29.5% from 3pt (and only 27% of shot from 3) and 63.2 FT%
Last year on the road, we shot well, 39.4 3pt% (35% shots were 3PTA). 10 percent higher than this year
If we keep the 3PTA down, then we just got to make closer to 35-36% and get that FT% up to around 70%

so i'll take that as if we are due to shoot better on the road. regress back to the mean.

I have no expectation that we will shoot better on the road because we have not proven that we can, nor does our personnel lead me to believe that improvement, outside of an anomalous one-off, is probable.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #106 on:** February 21, 2014, 12:32:12 AM »

Im not sure our shooting will improve on the road either. OU is giving up 1.08 at home. Other than TCU, I would assume that is the worst in the conference. They don't defend well at home, so we will have the oppourtunity to be better. Even so, the odds are not good that we get a win. OU's offense is tough to slow at home in conf. One dismal 1st half vs Tech. The other 11 halves, they are ave 1.19

Lefty · « **Reply #107 on:** February 21, 2014, 08:21:05 AM »

Quote from: MakeItRain on February 20, 2014, 11:12:14 PM

Quote from: Lefty on February 20, 2014, 09:35:52 PM
Quote from: Powercat Posse on February 20, 2014, 08:11:36 PM
It's almost a little frustrating our offense isn't better. 50.5 eFG is good enough for the 3rd best in the league.

Last year, our offense was pretty good and had a better 52.8 eFG (2nd best Big12, 32nd nationally)

The TO% is higher this year (1.1%) and the OR% is down (1.6) but the FTR is up. We are taking about the same number of FGAs, 55.4 last year 55.8 this year..... and the FTAs are up from 16 to 22 per game.

However... I guess if we were shooting 52.8 eFG (not 50.5) and we were making 72.8% FT (not 66.1).... we would be getting right at 4.0 more pts a game.... thus improving the PPP by .06. And that is with the TO and OR numbers being what they are right now

Most of our issues are on the road. 29.5% from 3pt (and only 27% of shot from 3) and 63.2 FT%
Last year on the road, we shot well, 39.4 3pt% (35% shots were 3PTA). 10 percent higher than this year
If we keep the 3PTA down, then we just got to make closer to 35-36% and get that FT% up to around 70%

so i'll take that as if we are due to shoot better on the road. regress back to the mean.

I have no expectation that we will shoot better on the road because we have not proven that we can, nor does our personnel lead me to believe that improvement, outside of an anomalous one-off, is probable.

That's exactly what i suspect will happen. at some point our in the least, our little gimmies around the rim will fall better. i hope our 3 balls happen, but i'm not counting on that. but i gotta believe our little chipshots have got to start to fall at some point. all wishful thinking, but our luck has to kick in. man i sound like a teenage believer right now.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #108 on:** February 23, 2014, 12:41:15 PM »

The story for the Cats continues. Shooting doesn't/can't overcome TOs and average rebounding. FTR is a problem too, but not the extent of the others. The FTR issue impacts K-State's defense and rotations (lately) more than anything.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #109 on:** February 23, 2014, 12:44:35 PM »

The offensive efficiency in this league this season is ridiculous.

Compare to the last 10 seasons:

Cire · « **Reply #110 on:** February 23, 2014, 02:46:50 PM »

new rules?

cDubya · « **Reply #111 on:** February 23, 2014, 11:50:24 PM »

Well, I'll be rooting for the cats, come next month.

I just can't believe how up and down WVU has been. And that OOC?

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #112 on:** February 24, 2014, 01:38:03 PM »

Quote from: cDubya on February 23, 2014, 11:50:24 PM

Well, I'll be rooting for the cats, come next month.

I just can't believe how up and down WVU has been. And that OOC?

Yeah, Huggy Bear is gonna have to beat KU at home and then win 1 game in the B12 tourney (which would probably meen beating the 3 seed) to get back in that discussion. At 9-9 with 1 win at Sprint Center, there is always a shot. That said, I don't see that happening

kso_FAN · « **Reply #113 on:** February 26, 2014, 12:24:34 AM »

Hey guys, we took back over as the Big 12's #1 defense.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #114 on:** February 27, 2014, 02:22:01 PM »

Only 3 games left!

Stevesie60 · « **Reply #115 on:** February 27, 2014, 06:01:13 PM »

I said K-State had a great 3pt% in conference play and michigancat said I was wrong. I want justice.

Tobias · « **Reply #116 on:** February 27, 2014, 09:36:15 PM »

hadn't really been paying attention to our ftr this season

michigancat · « **Reply #117 on:** February 27, 2014, 09:42:39 PM »

Quote from: Stevesie60 on February 27, 2014, 06:01:13 PM

I said K-State had a great 3pt% in conference play and michigancat said I was wrong. I want justice.

You're correct, I just believe it is mostly due to luck/variance.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #118 on:** March 02, 2014, 09:03:39 AM »

K-State good:
Cats efficiency defense is tied with KU on top of the league (slightly ahead with kenpom's adjustments for SOS). Most impressive is eFG% defense holding teams to 44.8%, especially when the league average is 49.5% (national average is 49.6%). I'm also still impressed with our 2PT% defense at 2nd in the league (44.8%) with the absence of a real shot blocker inside the paint. On offense, K-State's improved 3PT shooting (up to 36.1%) and still solid on 2s (49.1%) while battling ISU for the Big 12 #assistketball crown.

K-State bad:
The lack of size continues to catch up with the Cats on the boards as an ISU team that really doesn't try to oboard had their 3rd best oboarding game of the season yesterday. The oboarding differential is in the middle of the league, but the Cats have been beaten on the boards more often than not lately and that is probably the biggest concern in the Cats' final home game against Baylor. TO% has improved slightly during the Big 12 season, but 18.5% is still a problem. I've reached the point that when Will has to sit long stretches because of foul trouble I get more and more concerned about our offense. FT rate differential is still a concern, but its much less than TOs and oboarding.

The Cats are still set up well to finish with 11 conference wins and hopefully can pull the 3 spot in the league. A win Monday would be huge, but I'm not real confident at this point; the key is finishing with the home win vs Drew's Bears.

michigancat · « **Reply #119 on:** March 02, 2014, 10:53:05 AM »

I don't think it's really lack of size that hurts us on the boards.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #120 on:** March 02, 2014, 10:54:51 AM »

Quote from: michigancat on March 02, 2014, 10:53:05 AM

I don't think it's really lack of size that hurts us on the boards.

I don't think it helps.

oscar's system has traditionally been pretty good at dboarding, the past two years have been (by far) his worst seasons as a coach.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #121 on:** March 02, 2014, 12:14:05 PM »

Our D-boarding issues are a big concern right now. We have allowed 38.6% OR the past 7 games. It was the main reason in why we let the lead slip away and lost to Baylor. It came close to costing us last night.

Our OR isn't good either. Only once in last 10 games have we gotten 33.3% or higher on OR%. Just can't keep being below ave in both OR and DR. One area needs to step up and at least be decent, so the OR differ is not such a factor

On a good note. For the 2nd straight game, FT shooting really helped us get a win. 16-21 vs Tech. Last night we were 23-29 and 3 of those misses came after we had the game put away with under 30 secs left

MakeItRain · « **Reply #122 on:** March 02, 2014, 09:22:46 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on March 02, 2014, 10:53:05 AM

I don't think it's really lack of size that hurts us on the boards.

of course lack of size hurts, it may not be the sole reason but is certainly hurts

we have ivy league size

ksupamplemousse · « **Reply #123 on:** March 02, 2014, 11:10:51 PM »

Quote from: MakeItRain on March 02, 2014, 09:22:46 PM

Quote from: michigancat on March 02, 2014, 10:53:05 AM
I don't think it's really lack of size that hurts us on the boards.

of course lack of size hurts, it may not be the sole reason but is certainly hurts

we have ivy league size

Yeah, it won't be a coincidence when we're a much better rebounding team next year. Size matters.

Stevesie60 · « **Reply #124 on:** March 03, 2014, 04:19:46 AM »

There are times when I'm convinced that oscar tells our guys not to worry about rebounding.