8th

[michigancat]

I don't like that crap at all as a fan and I certainly don't know if it works, but somebody say why they don't agree with it working in theory.  tia

OEFF and DEFF generally aren't correlated to pace

I'm guessing that statistically a team is just as likely to have a freak shooting night (good or bad) playing at 65 possessions as they are at 75 possessions.

[michigancat]

SO, it could be that underdogs could win by more if they played at a higher pace.

[Kat Kid]

oscar doesn't use zone.  The post defense will continue to be a liability all season, there's no way around it.  It will improve though.  This is as bad at it will be assuming everyone stays healthy from here on out.  The loss of the teams best and most experienced post player isn't something this team can overcome obvs even if Gipson isn't a good rebounder or rim protector.  He's still much better than what they had.  It's not going to be pretty, but in say 9 or 10 of the games it'll be serviceable enough to claw out a victory if other aspects break right. 

As for leadership, my guess is it'll be Gipson and Chet (I realize he's not a player, but he's still young, plays in practice with them and is actually a leader) rallying the freshmen if Shane doesn't snap out of his funk.  If Shane gets hot, his enthusiasm will return even if they're not winning regularly.  He seems like that kind of guy.  If it stays together it'll be because of Lowery (oscar teams were better with him on staff) and Chester and maybe ABIII (I don't really know much about him), not oscar.  oscar does not motivate.  He's incapable, but these other guys might.  They'll sell the freshmen on the future and likely really sell the JT infusion.  Something to look forward to through the tough times.  The only time oscar completely lost an Illinois team was when the writing was on the wall.  Everyone knew he was getting fired.  That's not the case here.  They can sell building for the future and it's not a lie the players would have to be dumb to believe if they have any self-respect and pride.  Will will never be a leader.  Not even oscar would push that imo.  No fans will just be spun into the us vs. the world, go it alone, nobody believes in us, chip on shoulder cry.

It's not that I believe it will happen, but I can see them getting 8 or 9 wins.  I could also see them getting blown out by the Zags and GW and Ole Miss and then just having a real crap show abortion of a season.

I figured as much, but didn't want to assume.  Given the level of competition faced so far, and what is in store I don't see how it could possibly improve.

I agree on Chet.  I disagree on ABIII, he seems like a cheese dick.  I just have a feeling at some point Shane is going to punk out on this team.  I don't know if Gip can really rally the troops given that he will be part of the "old guard", but I could imagine a scenario where Foster and JT emerge as leaders.

TT, TCU = 3-4 (4)

WVU, OU, UT = 2-4 (3)

ISU, oSu, BU = 0-2 (1)

KU = 0

I still am not sure how any of that translates in to more than 8 wins.  I mean even being realistically optimistic you have to sweep a min. of 3 teams in the league to start realistically piecing together 8 wins.  That would logically require us to:

1. defend our home court
2. take this show on the road

[michigancat]

oscar used zone against GT and probably Charlotte, I think.

[kso_FAN]

It all depends on the upset. I was curious so I went back and checked the last few seasons and compared the average pace of kenpom's Top 20 to the average pace for all of college basketball. Each year the average pace of the top 20 was nearly the same as all of college basketball, so there is no indicator that playing faster means you are better. If you try to slow down a team that already plays slow (like Florida), then it doesn't help you much.

[Kat Kid]

oscar used zone against GT and probably Charlotte, I think.

Good counterpoint.  I thought so too.  I definitely remember him trying to control pace with the trap and soft full court press for most of the year and I think that will be a staple until oSu/ISU/KU/Baylor destroy us by beating it down the court.

[Kat Kid]

It all depends on the upset. I was curious so I went back and checked the last few seasons and compared the average pace of kenpom's Top 20 to the average pace for all of college basketball. Each year the average pace of the top 20 was nearly the same as all of college basketball, so there is no indicator that playing faster means you are better. If you try to slow down a team that already plays slow (like Florida), then it doesn't help you much.

see:  Town, George

[Mr Bread]

It all depends on the upset. I was curious so I went back and checked the last few seasons and compared the average pace of kenpom's Top 20 to the average pace for all of college basketball. Each year the average pace of the top 20 was nearly the same as all of college basketball, so there is no indicator that playing faster means you are better. If you try to slow down a team that already plays slow (like Florida), then it doesn't help you much.

Yeah, slowing down Wisconsin is not a recipe for success.

[Mr Bread]

oscar used zone against GT and probably Charlotte, I think.

Much?  That's gonna hurt on the boards. 

[Kat Kid]

oscar used zone against GT and probably Charlotte, I think.

Much?  That's gonna hurt on the boards.

Bro, do you even kenpom?  We can't DREB.

                            OFF              DEF      D1 AVG
Off. Reb. %:   35.4 (79)     33.5 (226)    31.9

[ksupamplemousse]

This is what K-State basketball has been reduced to, oscar trying to find the best scenario to produce outliers for both teams in any given game, because we're worse than most of the teams we'll play this year.

[michigancat]

It all depends on the upset. I was curious so I went back and checked the last few seasons and compared the average pace of kenpom's Top 20 to the average pace for all of college basketball. Each year the average pace of the top 20 was nearly the same as all of college basketball, so there is no indicator that playing faster means you are better. If you try to slow down a team that already plays slow (like Florida), then it doesn't help you much.

on kenpom's game plans, he has pace's correlation to OEFF and DEFF, and a quick glance at the correlations of a couple of elite coaches (Izzo and Self) shows that pace has basically no effect on their efficiency. So as an underdog it'd probably be best to play at the pace you're most comfortable with.

I guess if you plan on sucking and your best idea for not sucking is to shoot with 5 left on the shot clock every time, that may be what you're most comfortable with. But I don't think that's a very good plan.

[kso_FAN]

oscar used zone against GT and probably Charlotte, I think.

Much?  That's gonna hurt on the boards.

Bro, do you even kenpom?  We can't DREB.

                            OFF              DEF      D1 AVG
Off. Reb. %:   35.4 (79)     33.5 (226)    31.9

We can live with that dboarding, but we can't live with that oboarding.

[Kat Kid]

oscar used zone against GT and probably Charlotte, I think.

Much?  That's gonna hurt on the boards.

Bro, do you even kenpom?  We can't DREB.

                            OFF              DEF      D1 AVG
Off. Reb. %:   35.4 (79)     33.5 (226)    31.9

We can live with that dboarding, but we can't live with that oboarding.

You think the DREB gets better?  I don't.

[kso_FAN]

oscar used zone against GT and probably Charlotte, I think.

Much?  That's gonna hurt on the boards.

Bro, do you even kenpom?  We can't DREB.

                            OFF              DEF      D1 AVG
Off. Reb. %:   35.4 (79)     33.5 (226)    31.9

We can live with that dboarding, but we can't live with that oboarding.

You think the DREB gets better?  I don't.

Probably not, I'm just saying we weren't good at dboarding last year, but we were really good at oboarding, so it was a net benefit. I'm not saying that will be repeated this year, no.

[Kat Kid]

I understand.  I think the problems will get worse at DREB more than they get better at OREB.

[kso_FAN]

I understand.  I think the problems will get worse at DREB more than they get better at OREB.

Agreed.

[ksupamplemousse]

It all depends on the upset. I was curious so I went back and checked the last few seasons and compared the average pace of kenpom's Top 20 to the average pace for all of college basketball. Each year the average pace of the top 20 was nearly the same as all of college basketball, so there is no indicator that playing faster means you are better. If you try to slow down a team that already plays slow (like Florida), then it doesn't help you much.

on kenpom's game plans, he has pace's correlation to OEFF and DEFF, and a quick glance at the correlations of a couple of elite coaches (Izzo and Self) shows that pace has basically no effect on their efficiency. So as an underdog it'd probably be best to play at the pace you're most comfortable with.

I guess if you plan on sucking and your best idea for not sucking is to shoot with 5 left on the shot clock every time, that may be what you're most comfortable with. But I don't think that's a very good plan.

If the other team starts off cold, then they would have fewer chances to get back on track. Also, if we start out hot, then there are less chances for us to play like we usually do. Probably won't play out well over time, but for any given game it could be a decent strategy.

[Mr Bread]

I figured as much, but didn't want to assume.  Given the level of competition faced so far, and what is in store I don't see how it could possibly improve.

I agree on Chet.  I disagree on ABIII, he seems like a cheese dick.  I just have a feeling at some point Shane is going to punk out on this team.  I don't know if Gip can really rally the troops given that he will be part of the "old guard", but I could imagine a scenario where Foster and JT emerge as leaders.

TT, TCU = 3-4 (4)

WVU, OU, UT = 2-4 (3)

ISU, oSu, BU = 0-2 (1)

KU = 0

I still am not sure how any of that translates in to more than 8 wins.  I mean even being realistically optimistic you have to sweep a min. of 3 teams in the league to start realistically piecing together 8 wins.  That would logically require us to:

1. defend our home court
2. take this show on the road

When I said the post defense would get better I meant relative to the beginning of the season.  More experience in the system, more experience playing together, etc.  That garbage.  Not like they would allow fewer points to KU or OSU than they did UNC.  Maybe fewer to TCU and TT in January and February tho.  A lot of Georgetown's points in the paint were their guards.  More experience and the addition of JT could go a long way to preventing some of that. 

8 or 9 wins is my best case scenario.  They're going to have to catch some breaks.  Like say they play ISU the night they finally can't hit crap from three.  Very beatable.  TT and TCU are shitty.  Not particularly impressed with Baylor's guards yet and none of their bigs are Sean May or Jared Sullinger type back to the backet offensive beasts.  As physically gifted as they are, they can disappear at times.  Beatable at Bramlage mabes.  KU plays like they played against UTEP or Villanova and they can be beat.  For eff's sake TCU beat them last year, it happens.  OSU is mortal.  They almost let a shitty Purdue team come back on them.  UT will really struggle on the road imo.  I don't have faith in them.  WV and OU are wildcards, but they are likely at best bubble teams.  WV was crap last year.  Better now?  Sure, but not night and day. 

The thing I see is that this isn't exactly a murderer's row in the Big 12.  Capable of delivering a series of rapings to the cats if things don't break right?  Absolutely, but not overwhelming talent or even coaching in several cases.  Chances are quite good that I'll look like a total fuckface for having said any of this, but it's where I'm at at the moment. 

[CNS]

14-18 going into a shitty Wednesday Big12 tourny game.

[Mr Bread]

oscar used zone against GT and probably Charlotte, I think.

Much?  That's gonna hurt on the boards.

Bro, do you even kenpom?  We can't DREB.

                            OFF              DEF      D1 AVG
Off. Reb. %:   35.4 (79)     33.5 (226)    31.9

If he uses more zone going forward, then it's going to make the DREB numbers even shittier than they are now.  I mean if you are already shitty at it, going zone is probably not a good solution.  Like hey that first shot they took was harder cause zone, but then they got the ball right back cause OREB.  Damn.  When you're already not comfortbale with zone, seems like another decent reason not to commit to it.  I would guess he'll buckle down on the man to man and the boxing out and hope the post defense and DREB get better some way some how. 

oscar only ever really trotted out the press and zone when he was getting blown out.  I don't ever recall a situation he used it to do anything other than stop the bleeding.  Things can change, but I doubt that does. 

[Kat Kid]

oscar used zone against GT and probably Charlotte, I think.

Much?  That's gonna hurt on the boards.

Bro, do you even kenpom?  We can't DREB.

                            OFF              DEF      D1 AVG
Off. Reb. %:   35.4 (79)     33.5 (226)    31.9

If he uses more zone going forward, then it's going to make the DREB numbers even shittier than they are now.  I mean if you are already shitty at it, going zone is probably not a good solution.  Like hey that first shot they took was harder cause zone, but then they got the ball right back cause OREB.  Damn.  When you're already not comfortbale with zone, seems like another decent reason not to commit to it.  I would guess he'll buckle down on the man to man and the boxing out and hope the post defense and DREB get better some way some how. 

oscar only ever really trotted out the press and zone when he was getting blown out.  I don't ever recall a situation he used it to do anything other than stop the bleeding.  Things can change, but I doubt that does.

What if I blew your mind and told you that this is going to happen a bunch of times this year?

As for the DREB.  Yeah the zone hurts it, but it already sucks as is so why not try to find a strength and work toward that?  We are long at the guard spots, but undersized and short on depth inside.  It could create a potentially tough zone.  As I said, something will have to give on D between:

1) lack of rebounding
2) lack of guard quickness
3) lack of size/D inside

Obviously there are some moving parts here. 

Frankball:  Step up the Pressure

If we try to pressure the ball and deny the post we have no guard quickness and absolutely no one to protect the rim.

Adv:  + TO, +DREB
Disad:  -DEFF, -DFTR

Bruceketball:  Man up, no double, switch or go under screens, no/slow help

Points/foul troubs in the paint, wide open threes for teams that can string together 3 passes in a row or have a guy who can pull up off a screen.  Yet to see a wing that has emerged to replace McGruder's rebs.

Adv:  +FG% D (hopefully), -Pace, +DREB
Disad: -TO, -DFTR

Zones:

Hold down foul troubs, force teams in to contested jump shots, slow down game in conjunction w/ 2/3rds court trap and hope to force a TO or two with different junky looks.

ADV: -Pace, +DEFF, +FTR, +FG % D (hopefully)
Disad:  -DREB, -TO, if we turn ball over at current rate on O not worth bothering with

[Dr Rick Daris]

I figured as much, but didn't want to assume.  Given the level of competition faced so far, and what is in store I don't see how it could possibly improve.

I agree on Chet.  I disagree on ABIII, he seems like a cheese dick.  I just have a feeling at some point Shane is going to punk out on this team.  I don't know if Gip can really rally the troops given that he will be part of the "old guard", but I could imagine a scenario where Foster and JT emerge as leaders.

TT, TCU = 3-4 (4)

WVU, OU, UT = 2-4 (3)

ISU, oSu, BU = 0-2 (1)

KU = 0

I still am not sure how any of that translates in to more than 8 wins.  I mean even being realistically optimistic you have to sweep a min. of 3 teams in the league to start realistically piecing together 8 wins.  That would logically require us to:

1. defend our home court
2. take this show on the road

i agree with all this and will answer your question as to whether or not gip can do it. he can't.

[CNS]

I think if Foster had a coach that was good at toughening up players, that he would be good at getting boards like Rod did.  Will see if that develops or not. 

[TownieCat]

I think if Foster had a coach that was good at toughening up players, that he would be good at getting boards like Rod did.  Will see if that develops or not.

Marcus/Rodney comparisons don't make a lot of sense to me. Very different physical characteristics and skill sets.

Marcus' game is closer to Jake's than Rodney's IMO