8th

[Mr Bread]

Good rebounding isn't really a necessary ingredient for oscar teams to win, at least it was never my perception that it was.  He has been good at getting his guards and wings to crash the boards to make up for less than stellar post rebounding.  It would be my expectation that's what he'll do again. 

Scoring will be an issue.  My guess is they'll slow the pace way down come conference play and hope to limit scoring oppies for the other side and try to win ugly. 

I think this team will improve on defense.  If they get to 8 or 9 wins, it'll be because they get after it defensively, they rebound just enough to get by as a group and they force other teams to play slow and ugly.  A real grind, scrappy as all get out.  The outside shooting will also pick up.  They'll get over 30% which will make a significant difference. 

I don't expect it'll be fun for anyone to watch.  I get the feeling oscar and co. are succeeding at getting this team to buy into having a chip on its shoulder.  Whether he can maintain that if they get their dicks kicked off in the coming weeks is the key between 8 or 9 wins in conference vs. a complete cum bath.  If he loses the upperclassmen by getting humiliated again a la Georgetown in the noncon then he's mumped. 

The real difference at this point is that he's got a guy or guys on his staff that are actually tough.  Chester walked the walk when he played.  That may be the difference.  Jay rough ridin' Price wasn't firing anybody up. 

Mr. Bread, I really enjoy your presence on this board.

I'm going to have to fire up some more Big 10/Breads ADV stats charts for you this year.

  Probably should only do defense and rebounding, I don't think I'd like to see their offensive numbers.  It's very bad.  We are an awful, awful shooting team.  The upshot is that we have gotten good looks with regularity.  The problem is that they are rough ridin' terrible at shooting wide open threes and it isn't a funk.  Several of them just can't do it.  So ugly.   If they were even mediocre at shooting threes, this team would be an NCAA lock imo.  It's going to cost us a lot of games as the schedule toughens up.  I'm feeling very breadzacker about the whole situation. 

[Skipper44]

well, the only win at AFH in 20+ years was a pretty undersized team beating a very talented but very young KU team with a 2-3 zone they only played because they had no depth. 

[Mr Bread]

well, the only win at AFH in 20+ years was a pretty undersized team beating a very talented but very young KU team with a 2-3 zone they only played because they had no depth.

oscar's last season at Illinois (17-15/6-12) he did this:

#5 Ohio State - Assembly Hall - Champaign, IL - ESPN - W 79–74    

#10 Michigan State - Assembly Hall - Champaign, IL - ESPN - W 42–41

1/3 of his conference wins were against top 10 teams.

[kso_FAN]

oscar's last season at Illinois (17-15/6-12) he did this:

#5 Ohio State - Assembly Hall - Champaign, IL - ESPN - W 79–74    

#10 Michigan State - Assembly Hall - Champaign, IL - ESPN - W 42–41

1/3 of his conference wins were against top 10 teams.

Those games are bizarre, mainly because of how different they were in pace and efficiency. One win with nearly 1.2 points per possession and one with .74 ppp. That Michigan State game had to be brutal to watch.

It is amazing how bad the defense got for oscar at the end of that season.

[Mr Bread]

oscar's last season at Illinois (17-15/6-12) he did this:

#5 Ohio State - Assembly Hall - Champaign, IL - ESPN - W 79–74    

#10 Michigan State - Assembly Hall - Champaign, IL - ESPN - W 42–41

1/3 of his conference wins were against top 10 teams.

Those games are bizarre, mainly because of how different they were in pace and efficiency. One win with nearly 1.2 points per possession and one with .74 ppp. That Michigan State game had to be brutal to watch.

It is amazing how bad the defense got for oscar at the end of that season.

Yeah, the Ohio State game Brandon Paul was NBA Jam on fire, throwing up ridiculous shots and they were going in left and right.  Very fun game.  The Michigan State game was why I hated oscar so much.  We won and it felt awful.  Zero joy after that.  This has to end is what I thought. 

The defense got bad because they flat quit on him.  Very FP display there.  Really shameful stuff on the players' part. 

[CNS]

If Jevon is absolutely amazing, we could win 8 games.  If he is the normal frosh who is skilled but slightly out of control, a little sloppy with the ball, not up to strength on defense, or if his natural tempo is drastically different than what our current team plays, then we could easily be a 4-6 win conf team.  Easily.

My gut says he is better than Nigel in every way except three-point shooting.  Faster, stronger, better dribbler, better disher and better driver.  So you basically swap them out and bump up JT's minutes with everybody else staying healthy and I say it's 8-10 to 9-9 lock.  This is all gut here.  I don't know it, I just feel it.  oscar will pull some upsets.  He always does, even in his worst years.  He's already cashed in some of his standard head scratching stinkers.  These things follow a pattern. 

It would be different if I thought he was losing this team, but I don't.  Again just feelings.

I don't know how we rebound or score enough points to have it make a difference.  Unless Shane turns in to Rodney McGruder we are screwed because our bigs our undersized and underskilled and our swings and guards are not good at distribution (besides Shane) or shooting (besides Shane and Foster).

I mean it is possible that Foster and Jevon somehow just relentlessly drive to the rim and will us to a victory, but that seems unlikely.

Good rebounding isn't really a necessary ingredient for oscar teams to win, at least it was never my perception that it was.  He has been good at getting his guards and wings to crash the boards to make up for less than stellar post rebounding.  It would be my expectation that's what he'll do again. 

Scoring will be an issue.  My guess is they'll slow the pace way down come conference play and hope to limit scoring oppies for the other side and try to win ugly. 

I think this team will improve on defense.  If they get to 8 or 9 wins, it'll be because they get after it defensively, they rebound just enough to get by as a group and they force other teams to play slow and ugly.  A real grind, scrappy as all get out.  The outside shooting will also pick up.  They'll get over 30% which will make a significant difference. 

I don't expect it'll be fun for anyone to watch.  I get the feeling oscar and co. are succeeding at getting this team to buy into having a chip on its shoulder.  Whether he can maintain that if they get their dicks kicked off in the coming weeks is the key between 8 or 9 wins in conference vs. a complete cum bath.  If he loses the upperclassmen by getting humiliated again a la Georgetown in the noncon then he's mumped. 

The real difference at this point is that he's got a guy or guys on his staff that are actually tough.  Chester walked the walk when he played.  That may be the difference.  Jay rough ridin' Price wasn't firing anybody up. 

I agree about D being the difference if we are to win more than 4-5 games.  That said, having watched a team that out toughed others for several years and won on grinding D performances, it seems that this team is significantly softer than our teams of late.  They seem less intense.  Also, the rule change will severely effect a team's ability to grind out D wins unless you have crazy good athletes which if we did, we wouldn't be having this convo.  I hope you are right, though.

[Kat Kid]

Mr. Bread-

I really appreciate your posting.  Probably the best course of action for this team is to slow the pace way down as you said and hope for open 3 point looks and pray Will/Shane/Foster can knock them down.  Our offense will suck, but if we can slow down the pace enough it could still keep us within a few possessions assuming solid D. 

The most concerning thing is our post defense.  It sucks.  Nino, Gip and DJamer have never been good post defenders even for their size.  How does oscar feel about zones?  Because I think we will be trying to go in to a soft trap after every made basket to take 10-12 seconds off the clock before the oppos can get in to their offense.  That being said, we will bleed points in the paint and at a certain point the depth chart will burn up our fouls there.  We will probably need to settle on an sagging zone D or be very aggressive in doubling down, denying entry passes.  The problem I don't know if we have quick/smart enough guards to rotate.  If we are content giving up 3 pt attempts then we really should just settle on a zone and work on fighting for long boards because if we are to compete even against the middle of the road big 12 teams we will need to solve those two enormous liabilities on D.

As far as the upsets?  I guess I could see picking off Baylor, UT or even oSu if Smart got in foul troubs or was injured.  But we are not touching KU.  Sorry, Bill Self will not allow it under any circumstance.

As far as the team chemistry/oscar motivational techniques.  I think oscar has already dipped in to the well early on the us against them crap.  The players aren't idiots.  They notice that the fan support thus far has been dismal.  I just don't think that a team as marginal as this one can battle out a schedule like we have under those circumstances.  As far as the personalities of the individual players?

Shane Southwell and Will Spradling are my best guess as to the leaders of the lockerroom.  Emotional toughness is not the first thought that enters my mind.  At some point it may well get to the point that oscar hands the team to the freshman, throws the seniors under the bus and talks about being stabbed in the back by the old regime and its traitorous fruits.  It certainly worked for another infamous Austrian.

Regretfully,
KK

[pissclams]

Mr. Bread-

I really appreciate your posting.  Probably the best course of action for this team is to slow the pace way down as you said and hope for open 3 point looks and pray Will/Shane/Foster can knock them down.  Our offense will suck, but if we can slow down the pace enough it could still keep us within a few possessions assuming solid D. 

The most concerning thing is our post defense.  It sucks.  Nino, Gip and DJamer have never been good post defenders even for their size.  How does oscar feel about zones?  Because I think we will be trying to go in to a soft trap after every made basket to take 10-12 seconds off the clock before the oppos can get in to their offense.  That being said, we will bleed points in the paint and at a certain point the depth chart will burn up our fouls there.  We will probably need to settle on an sagging zone D or be very aggressive in doubling down, denying entry passes.  The problem I don't know if we have quick/smart enough guards to rotate.  If we are content giving up 3 pt attempts then we really should just settle on a zone and work on fighting for long boards because if we are to compete even against the middle of the road big 12 teams we will need to solve those two enormous liabilities on D.

As far as the upsets?  I guess I could see picking off Baylor, UT or even oSu if Smart got in foul troubs or was injured.  But we are not touching KU.  Sorry, Bill Self will not allow it under any circumstance.

As far as the team chemistry/oscar motivational techniques.  I think oscar has already dipped in to the well early on the us against them crap.  The players aren't idiots.  They notice that the fan support thus far has been dismal.  I just don't think that a team as marginal as this one can battle out a schedule like we have under those circumstances.  As far as the personalities of the individual players?

Shane Southwell and Will Spradling are my best guess as to the leaders of the lockerroom.  Emotional toughness is not the first thought that enters my mind.  At some point it may well get to the point that oscar hands the team to the freshman, throws the seniors under the bus and talks about being stabbed in the back by the old regime and its traitorous fruits.  It certainly worked for another infamous Austrian.

Regretfully,
KK

Mr.Bread, you say what?

[CNS]

As far as handing things to the frosh goes, this is the path that will be taken.  It's the only path to be taken.

[puniraptor]

I appreciate all of yins alls honest posting in this HBBIQ thread

[kso_FAN]

As far as handing things to the frosh goes, this is the path that will be taken.  It's the only path to be taken.

Agree. I think Foster, Iwundo, Johnson, and (hopefully) Thomas can handle it. I wish there was a big in this class.

I don't see Hagop as anything other than the Armenian Sulic unless he proves me wrong.

[michigancat]

Is there any evidence that slowing pace increases chances of upsets? I doubt there is.

[Mr Bread]

Mr. Bread-

I really appreciate your posting.  Probably the best course of action for this team is to slow the pace way down as you said and hope for open 3 point looks and pray Will/Shane/Foster can knock them down.  Our offense will suck, but if we can slow down the pace enough it could still keep us within a few possessions assuming solid D. 

The most concerning thing is our post defense.  It sucks.  Nino, Gip and DJamer have never been good post defenders even for their size.  How does oscar feel about zones?  Because I think we will be trying to go in to a soft trap after every made basket to take 10-12 seconds off the clock before the oppos can get in to their offense.  That being said, we will bleed points in the paint and at a certain point the depth chart will burn up our fouls there.  We will probably need to settle on an sagging zone D or be very aggressive in doubling down, denying entry passes.  The problem I don't know if we have quick/smart enough guards to rotate.  If we are content giving up 3 pt attempts then we really should just settle on a zone and work on fighting for long boards because if we are to compete even against the middle of the road big 12 teams we will need to solve those two enormous liabilities on D.

As far as the upsets?  I guess I could see picking off Baylor, UT or even oSu if Smart got in foul troubs or was injured.  But we are not touching KU.  Sorry, Bill Self will not allow it under any circumstance.

As far as the team chemistry/oscar motivational techniques.  I think oscar has already dipped in to the well early on the us against them crap.  The players aren't idiots.  They notice that the fan support thus far has been dismal.  I just don't think that a team as marginal as this one can battle out a schedule like we have under those circumstances.  As far as the personalities of the individual players?

Shane Southwell and Will Spradling are my best guess as to the leaders of the lockerroom.  Emotional toughness is not the first thought that enters my mind.  At some point it may well get to the point that oscar hands the team to the freshman, throws the seniors under the bus and talks about being stabbed in the back by the old regime and its traitorous fruits.  It certainly worked for another infamous Austrian.

Regretfully,
KK

oscar doesn't use zone.  The post defense will continue to be a liability all season, there's no way around it.  It will improve though.  This is as bad at it will be assuming everyone stays healthy from here on out.  The loss of the team's best and most experienced post player isn't something this team can overcome obvs even if Gipson isn't a good rebounder or rim protector.  He's still much better than what they had.  It's not going to be pretty, but in say 9 or 10 of the games it'll be serviceable enough to claw out a victory if other aspects break right. 

As for leadership, my guess is it'll be Gipson and Chet (I realize he's not a player, but he's still young, plays in practice with them and is actually a leader) rallying the freshmen if Shane doesn't snap out of his funk.  If Shane gets hot, his enthusiasm will return even if they're not winning regularly.  He seems like that kind of guy.  If it stays together it'll be because of Lowery (oscar teams were better with him on staff) and Chester and maybe ABIII (I don't really know much about him), not oscar.  oscar does not motivate.  He's incapable, but these other guys might.  They'll sell the freshmen on the future and likely really sell the JT infusion.  Something to look forward to through the tough times.  The only time oscar completely lost an Illinois team was when the writing was on the wall.  Everyone knew he was getting fired.  That's not the case here.  They can sell building for the future and it's not a lie the players would have to be dumb to believe if they have any self-respect and pride.  Will will never be a leader.  Not even oscar would push that imo.  No fans will just be spun into the us vs. the world, go it alone, nobody believes in us, chip on shoulder cry.

It's not that I believe it will happen, but I can see them getting 8 or 9 wins.  I could also see them getting blown out by the Zags and GW and Ole Miss and then just having a real crap show abortion of a season. 

[Mr Bread]

Is there any evidence that slowing pace increases chances of upsets? I doubt there is.

Maybe it does if you're terrible on offense and your oppenent isn't and thus the total number of shots per game (including your opponent's) is reduced.  Less opportunity for you to eff up and less opportunity for them to succeed.  It reduces the margin for error.  So if they're a little off that night and you're a little more on than usual, you might have a shot where as if you were jacking up tons of shots you'd get burried.  I think because math you've increased your odds of a fluke win. 

[CNS]

As far as game plans go, maximizing the oppy for fluke wins really sucks.  I mean, white flag in the air type stuff.

[kso_FAN]

oscar doesn't use zone.  The post defense will continue to be a liability all season, there's no way around it.  It will improve though.  This is as bad at it will be assuming everyone stays healthy from here on out.  The loss of the teams best and most experienced post player isn't something this team can overcome obvs even if Gipson isn't a good rebounder or rim protector.  He's still much better than what they had.  It's not going to be pretty, but in say 9 or 10 of the games it'll be serviceable enough to claw out a victory if other aspects break right. 

As for leadership, my guess is it'll be Gipson and Chet (I realize he's not a player, but he's still young, plays in practice with them and is actually a leader) rallying the freshmen if Shane doesn't snap out of his funk.  If Shane gets hot, his enthusiasm will return even if they're not winning regularly.  He seems like that kind of guy.  If it stays together it'll be because of Lowery (oscar teams were better with him on staff) and Chester and maybe ABIII (I don't really know much about him), not oscar.  oscar does not motivate.  He's incapable, but these other guys might.  They'll sell the freshmen on the future and likely really sell the JT infusion.  Something to look forward to through the tough times.  The only time oscar completely lost an Illinois team was when the writing was on the wall.  Everyone knew he was getting fired.  That's not the case here.  They can sell building for the future and it's not a lie the players would have to be dumb to believe if they have any self-respect and pride.  Will will never be a leader.  Not even oscar would push that imo.  No fans will just be spun into the us vs. the world, go it alone, nobody believes in us, chip on shoulder cry.

It's not that I believe it will happen, but I can see them getting 8 or 9 wins.  I could also see them getting blown out by the Zags and GW and Ole Miss and then just having a real crap show abortion of a season. 

I agree that this is not a situation anything like oscar's last with the Breads and the likelihood of that kind of pathetic quit isn't very high. I don't think Gip or these freshmen will let that happen.

As has been discussed plenty, it all goes to getting some 3s to fall, even at a low-30s clip. Then adequate rebounding and getting the turnover situation under control.

But if GT is any indicator of our defense and turnovers then this will be a long season, but I don't know if that can be said yet. When you get outshot and outboarded by 30% and 15% you are going to get flat blown out by anyone.

[michigancat]

Is there any evidence that slowing pace increases chances of upsets? I doubt there is.

Maybe it does if you're terrible on offense and your oppenent isn't and thus the total number of shots per game (including your opponent's) is reduced.  Less opportunity for you to eff up and less opportunity for them to succeed.  It reduces the margin for error.  So if they're a little off that night and you're a little more on than usual, you might have a shot where as if you were jacking up tons of shots you'd get burried.  I think because math you've increased your odds of a fluke win. 

yeah, I get the logic behind it, but was looking for like, evidence.

[Cartierfor3]

Kat Kid, get your ass in the Royals thread right now. I need you ASAP.

[Mr Bread]

Is there any evidence that slowing pace increases chances of upsets? I doubt there is.

Maybe it does if you're terrible on offense and your oppenent isn't and thus the total number of shots per game (including your opponent's) is reduced.  Less opportunity for you to eff up and less opportunity for them to succeed.  It reduces the margin for error.  So if they're a little off that night and you're a little more on than usual, you might have a shot where as if you were jacking up tons of shots you'd get burried.  I think because math you've increased your odds of a fluke win. 

yeah, I get the logic behind it, but was looking for like, evidence.

Well I don't have any of that. 

[pissclams]

Is there any evidence that slowing pace increases chances of upsets? I doubt there is.

Maybe it does if you're terrible on offense and your oppenent isn't and thus the total number of shots per game (including your opponent's) is reduced.  Less opportunity for you to eff up and less opportunity for them to succeed.  It reduces the margin for error.  So if they're a little off that night and you're a little more on than usual, you might have a shot where as if you were jacking up tons of shots you'd get burried.  I think because math you've increased your odds of a fluke win. 

yeah, I get the logic behind it, but was looking for like, evidence.

i don't agree with the logic behind it

[kso_FAN]

Is there any evidence that slowing pace increases chances of upsets? I doubt there is.

Maybe it does if you're terrible on offense and your oppenent isn't and thus the total number of shots per game (including your opponent's) is reduced.  Less opportunity for you to eff up and less opportunity for them to succeed.  It reduces the margin for error.  So if they're a little off that night and you're a little more on than usual, you might have a shot where as if you were jacking up tons of shots you'd get burried.  I think because math you've increased your odds of a fluke win. 

yeah, I get the logic behind it, but was looking for like, evidence.

I think its a really good question. I emailed Mr. Pomeroy (really), I'll let you know if he responds and what he says.

[michigancat]

ken is amazing at responding to emails.

(I don't agree w/ the logic, either clams, but I understand why people subscribe to it).

[Mr Bread]

You are bad at shooting the ball and your opponent is good at shooting the ball.  It is better for you if everybody shoots less. 

I don't like that crap at all as a fan and I certainly don't know if it works, but somebody say why they don't agree with it working in theory.  tia

[Mr Bread]

Also, for the theory part, it can make teams that are used to playing normal basketball really uncomfortable and can disrupt their rhythm.  Upset odds increasing! 

[Mr Bread]