if waters was a freshman

[kso_FAN]

cmon surely you got my point. i know they were good offensive outputs in those games but it wasnt very consistent (to me)

Of course I do. We got one really great quarter against OU and it wasn't enough to win. It was one factor in that game (along with some bad special teams and poor defense, especially on 3rd down.

My point is this; I'm trying to look at this season with a big picture view, and the numbers over 12 games can't be that skewed one way or the other. They are either good or they aren't, and everything points to this being a pretty damn good offense that had dreadful turnover problems. That was coupled with an average defense and pretty good special teams.

And that's why this team is 7-5 and not better.

[Rage Against the McKee]

[It's not about turnovers. It's about field position and having more positive outcomes offensively than negative outcomes and we have not done that.

I understand your other points, but the impact of turnovers was just as dramatic as any other factor in winning and losing this season, not only that they happened, but when they happened with both QBs.

A turnover giving up good field position is no worse than a 3 and out giving up good field position. If the turnover happens after a couple of first downs are gained, I would say the turnover is actually much better. At least the offense keeps the defense off the field for a few minutes in that scenario.

My overall point is that no team consistently turns the ball over. Some teams are better at protecting the ball than others, and we admittedly have not been good. Good teams do not consistently run 3 or 4 plays and then punt like we do, though. The turnovers could be overcome if the offense were capable of staying on the field and consistently scoring points.

[steve dave]

agree with FAN on needing to look at the statistics and not be biased by personal views re. any one player. stats are stats. FAN could learn a lot from himself here.

[kso_FAN]

A couple of really good offensive metrics from a great ADV football site.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2013

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff

Both of these have criteria for drive efficiency and explosiveness. I'll leave it to you guys to read the charts yourselves, but I find it to be pretty good stuff.

[kslim]

[kso_FAN]

agree with FAN on needing to look at the statistics and not be biased by personal views re. any one player. stats are stats. FAN could learn a lot from himself here.

I've been talking about K-State's offense here.

[yoga-like_abana]

I just don't feel like Waters is a great fit for the offense Snyder tries to run and his year or age has nothing to do with it.
He'd probably be pretty good somewhere else

[steve dave]

agree with FAN on needing to look at the statistics and not be biased by personal views re. any one player. stats are stats. FAN could learn a lot from himself here.

I've been talking about K-State's offense here.

I know.

[kso_FAN]

A turnover giving up good field position is no worse than a 3 and out giving up good field position. If the turnover happens after a couple of first downs are gained, I would say the turnover is actually much better. At least the offense keeps the defense off the field for a few minutes in that scenario.

My overall point is that no team consistently turns the ball over. Some teams are better at protecting the ball than others, and we admittedly have not been good. Good teams do not consistently run 3 or 4 plays and then punt like we do, though. The turnovers could be overcome if the offense were capable of staying on the field and consistently scoring points.

The TO outlier game this year is Baylor, and it fits the scenario for advocating TOP. TO% was 1.3% and we were in it because of dominating TOP, but a TO was still one of K-State's key stats of the game (QB snaps were nearly equal, FWIW)

Our other 4 losses were also our worst TO% games, all 3.8% or worse (OSU was 7.6%). 

I think TOP is important for Snyder teams, but I think TOs are too. I think that numbers demonstrate that well this season.

[Rage Against the McKee]

A turnover giving up good field position is no worse than a 3 and out giving up good field position. If the turnover happens after a couple of first downs are gained, I would say the turnover is actually much better. At least the offense keeps the defense off the field for a few minutes in that scenario.

My overall point is that no team consistently turns the ball over. Some teams are better at protecting the ball than others, and we admittedly have not been good. Good teams do not consistently run 3 or 4 plays and then punt like we do, though. The turnovers could be overcome if the offense were capable of staying on the field and consistently scoring points.

The TO outlier game this year is Baylor, and it fits the scenario for advocating TOP. TO% was 1.3% and we were in it because of dominating TOP, but a TO was still one of K-State's key stats of the game (QB snaps were nearly equal, FWIW)

Our other 4 losses were also our worst TO% games, all 3.8% or worse (OSU was 7.6%). 

I think TOP is important for Snyder teams, but I think TOs are too. I think that numbers demonstrate that well this season.

We didn't lose to NDSU because Jake Waters had interceptions before halftime and at the end of the game that resulted in 0 NDSU points. We lost because of all the drives we had that resulted in 0 points and a punt. I get that turnovers matter and agree that they are very important. Let's not act like they are the sole reason this team is losing close games, though. The lack of consistency on offense is the problem. The turnovers only make it worse.

[kso_FAN]

A turnover giving up good field position is no worse than a 3 and out giving up good field position. If the turnover happens after a couple of first downs are gained, I would say the turnover is actually much better. At least the offense keeps the defense off the field for a few minutes in that scenario.

My overall point is that no team consistently turns the ball over. Some teams are better at protecting the ball than others, and we admittedly have not been good. Good teams do not consistently run 3 or 4 plays and then punt like we do, though. The turnovers could be overcome if the offense were capable of staying on the field and consistently scoring points.

The TO outlier game this year is Baylor, and it fits the scenario for advocating TOP. TO% was 1.3% and we were in it because of dominating TOP, but a TO was still one of K-State's key stats of the game (QB snaps were nearly equal, FWIW)

Our other 4 losses were also our worst TO% games, all 3.8% or worse (OSU was 7.6%). 

I think TOP is important for Snyder teams, but I think TOs are too. I think that numbers demonstrate that well this season.

We didn't lose to NDSU because Jake Waters had interceptions before halftime and at the end of the game that resulted in 0 NDSU points. We lost because of all the drives we had that resulted in 0 points and a punt. I get that turnovers matter and agree that they are very important. Let's not act like they are the sole reason this team is losing close games, though. The lack of consistency on offense is the problem. The turnovers only make it worse.

NDSU was a terrible offensive performance, one of the worst of the season. The QB was a big reason for that, so was the offensive line getting dominated.

[ksupamplemousse]

Regardless of the QB, the offense this year was effective and efficient, averaging 6.3 yards per play and .52 points per play (both of which are Top 20 in the country). The schedule wasn't murder's row, but that was still against four Top 40 defenses.

The biggest problem was the offense turned the ball over too much; the Cats turned it over 3.14% of the time on offense. Both QBs had issues here; Waters finished by throwing INTs on 3.9% of his attempts. Sams threw INTs on 7.7% of his attempts. Waters fumbled on 3.8% of his carries and Sams fumbled on 2.0% of his carries.

FWIW, K-State is still in the Top 25 in TOP nationally.

What about 3 and outs?  Or drives that resulted in TDs?  Serious questions btw.

Yeah. When most of our offense comes from big plays, with next to nothing in between, those advanced stats are going to make us look a lot better than we really are. There has been no consistency in our offense all year, except for when Sams is taking the snaps, and it has cost us games.

It's not about turnovers. It's about field position and having more positive outcomes offensively than negative outcomes and we have not done that.

Remember when _FENCE made this?  The Punt and 3 and Out numbers are simply terrifying:

I went and looked up Waters' drives in Big 12 play prior to the KU game and more than half of Waters' drives were 4 plays or less for 0 points. It's just dumbfounding how bad he is when he's not throwing deep touchdown passes. If we could move the football at a reasonable level and still consistently put points on the board when we aren't hitting big plays, I would want Waters to be the starter and I'd want Sams to move to WR. Most of his drives are just unacceptably bad, though. He shouldn't be playing.

^^This. Quick strikes are fine when you can strike quickly on a fairly consistent basis, and when you are still able to move the ball some on non-scoring drives. Waters doesn't seem to be able to get this offense to do either of those things on a quarter to quarter, week to week basis. Their roles should be reversed next year (assuming Sams makes decent strides in the off-season), with Sams taking the vast majority of the snaps and Waters being the change of pace QB who can come in and take some shots down the field. I would be very happy with that scenario.

[TheFormerKCCat]

back to the topic...if he was a freshman, I'd understand why he holds the ball in the pocket so painfully long. The biggest favor the coaches can teach Waters this bonus practice season and next spring is to get rid of the damn ball!

Maybe we need to adjust our WR routes (I'm admittedly low route-running IQ here)?  Is everybody running double moves or long routes that take forever to develop or tell if a WR is open? If so, give Waters more short routes to throw to (I know, I know, he'll just sail the ball over their heads or skip 'em in the dirt, right?).

Waters is just frustrating to me. If he were a freshman, I'd have more patience. He's a Junior.

I hope that Daniel really shines in practice over the next few weeks AND that we get a team that is susceptible to the run. I don't mind him sharing a little time with Waters, but the situation the past couple of weeks has been a bummer. I'm firmly team #LIFE.

[pissclams]

i think they both did pretty good this season, not really concerned with the future of the KATQB position

i hope we get better LB and WR play next season though 

our o-line got better as the season progressed, not sure about what to expect from next year?  a big mac and fries? 

[DQ12]

i think they both did pretty good this season, not really concerned with the future of the KATQB position

i hope we get better LB and WR play next season though 

our o-line got better as the season progressed, not sure about what to expect from next year?  a big mac and fries?

i think our LBs are supposed to be better next season.  think our OL is gonna be worse though.  what does this mean?

 

[pissclams]

good news is that LBs are going to be studs

more good news just arriving on my desk - so is o-line 

 

[michigancat]

If Waters were a freshman I'd be cool with him getting about 30% of the snaps to change things up and help his development.

[DQ12]

who's your source re. the oline clams?  because mine is a pretty legendary cat footballer.  hint: he represented the cats in the 2006 texas bowl at OL.  hint 2: he wore number 69.  hint 3: he's from Conway Springs.  yep, that's right, it's caleb handy.

my point is that i think one of our sources is sending out disinformation to spread confusion.  if your source has more cred than mine i'll know that caleb is the falsifier.

[ChiComCat]

Here is another interesting hypothetical: What if Sams was a foot taller?

[pissclams]

who's your source re. the oline clams?  because mine is a pretty legendary cat footballer.  hint: he represented the cats in the 2006 texas bowl at OL.  hint 2: he wore number 69.  hint 3: he's from Conway Springs.  yep, that's right, it's caleb handy.

my point is that i think one of our sources is sending out disinformation to spread confusion.  if your source has more cred than mine i'll know that caleb is the falsifier.

true story - and this is no joke on you, i have no source.  the news i was talking about earlier that came across my desk was just a belief in a little thing i like to call, kat football.  go ksu.