QB rotation stunting Sams growth

[Rage Against the McKee]

bury their heads in the sand on 99 yard TD bombs

When did this happen? Of you are referring to the 90 yard bomb, people aren't crediting Waters because Lockett was a million miles open. Of the 5 long TD passes Waters has thrown the last two weeks 4 of them were to receivers so open that a severe under throw wouldn't have made a difference, literally HS QBs could have completed them. 3 were dur to amazing routes, 1 due to a DB falling down. The pass to Thompson was 2 seconds late and 7 yards under thrown. He did have a really nice pass to Lockett, the second TD against OU I believe.

The dropped snap and then blind prayer to Thompson against OU was hilarious, and amazing catch by tripleF'inT

I knew this would be brought up, but Waters had a few nice touch passes. If you're going to discredit waters for great receiver play, you have to do the same with Sams.

I wish I had the chance. I would like to think that if Sams and Waters were yielding the same results everyone would credit the receivers for being amazing. There were many many many pro-lifers that pointed out how unfair it was that Sams got most of his attempts the two weeks when Lockett and Thompson were out. I don't mean to completely discredit Waters deep passing ability. I just want to make it clear that it shouldn't be used as a weakness of Sams, since he hasn't been given anywhere close to the chances that Waters did. Against OSU Sams completed long passes to Gronk and Torrel.

Gronk's pass was like 10 yards max. YAC got the other 50.

YAC got about 50 yards of Water's bomb to Lockett as well. Who cares?

Sams ability to deliver it deep is in question. Figured a pass that counted as 50 but was really 10 would be RELEVANT.

It really was 60. Sams' ability to run sucked the safeties up and made Gronk wide open for an easy touchdown pass.

[MakeItRain]

bury their heads in the sand on 99 yard TD bombs

When did this happen? Of you are referring to the 90 yard bomb, people aren't crediting Waters because Lockett was a million miles open. Of the 5 long TD passes Waters has thrown the last two weeks 4 of them were to receivers so open that a severe under throw wouldn't have made a difference, literally HS QBs could have completed them. 3 were dur to amazing routes, 1 due to a DB falling down. The pass to Thompson was 2 seconds late and 7 yards under thrown. He did have a really nice pass to Lockett, the second TD against OU I believe.

The dropped snap and then blind prayer to Thompson against OU was hilarious, and amazing catch by tripleF'inT

I knew this would be brought up, but Waters had a few nice touch passes. If you're going to discredit waters for great receiver play, you have to do the same with Sams.

I wish I had the chance. I would like to think that if Sams and Waters were yielding the same results everyone would credit the receivers for being amazing. There were many many many pro-lifers that pointed out how unfair it was that Sams got most of his attempts the two weeks when Lockett and Thompson were out. I don't mean to completely discredit Waters deep passing ability. I just want to make it clear that it shouldn't be used as a weakness of Sams, since he hasn't been given anywhere close to the chances that Waters did. Against OSU Sams completed long passes to Gronk and Torrel.

Gronk's pass was like 10 yards max. YAC got the other 50.

YAC got about 50 yards of Water's bomb to Lockett as well. Who cares?

Sams ability to deliver it deep is in question. Figured a pass that counted as 50 but was really 10 would be RELEVANT.

My post you quoted was about why we don't have the data to evaluate Sams as a deep passer, so no your observation about YAC isn't relevant at all. You have the IQ and logical reasoning of a fruit bat.

[SwiftCat]

also i think it's funny that after the osu and bu games people wanted to jump all over sams for not pulling out the wins but the same people aren't doing it with waters. can't have it only one way. also, ou at home was the easiest of the three and by far our least competitive.

Yes. Very similar situations.

[ManBearTurkey]

My main criticism of Snyder throughout his tenure is given the option he over thinks everything. It is why he is a legend when games are only 6 days apart but that is also the reason we are dog crap in bowl games. He has a month to think about everything and in the end just screws it up. And why his record after a bye against anyone other than KU or non-con scrubs is 3-6.

That is the problem with two QBs. It allows him to over think it and screw it up.

He didn't have that luxury in 2011, so he just focused on how to win with Klein and stayed committed to it. The same should have been done for a far more physically talented QB in Sams.

The 2011 season it was standard to fall behind by two scores. Snyder would have subbed in go-big-or-go home waters in that situation only to lose the game in a semi-shootout and fans would be saying, "hot damn did you see that one long BOMB?! Tough loss, but we're K-State, just glad we are going to a bowl game."

[UCHADBRO]

My main criticism of Snyder throughout his tenure is given the option he over thinks everything. It is why he is a legend when games are only 6 days apart but that is also the reason we are dog crap in bowl games. He has a month to think about everything and in the end just screws it up. And why his record after a bye against anyone other than KU or non-con scrubs is 3-6.

That is the problem with two QBs. It allows him to over think it and screw it up.

He didn't have that luxury in 2011, so he just focused on how to win with Klein and stayed committed to it. The same should have been done for a far more physically talented QB in Sams.

The 2011 season it was standard to fall behind by two scores. Snyder would have subbed in go-big-or-go home waters in that situation only to lose the game in a semi-shootout and fans would be saying, "hot damn did you see that one long BOMB?! Tough loss, but we're K-State, just glad we are going to a bowl game."

This ^
Money

[CNS]

I assumed the reason we lost our bowl games lately is that we overachieve by Bill getting every little last drop of production out of the team to the point that we earn a high ranking that gets us playing teams above our head. 

[CNS]

Also, we may be dog crap in bowls because bill probably spends the entire month practicing the gray shirts for next year or something.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I assumed the reason we lost our bowl games lately is that we overachieve by Bill getting every little last drop of production out of the team to the point that we earn a high ranking that gets us playing teams above our head. 

Yeah, but he consistently beat teams above our head throughout the regular season those years.

[MakeItRain]

I assumed the reason we lost our bowl games lately is that we overachieve by Bill getting every little last drop of production out of the team to the point that we earn a high ranking that gets us playing teams above our head. 

Oregon and Arkansas were very good teams, Syracuse was complete dogshit, both times we lost to them.

[kso_FAN]

I was starting to think that maybe everyone, myself included, was maybe overreacting with this whole H3O business and harping on the 3 and outs and short drives Jake puts together. I mean, how often does that really happen? So, over lunch I looked up the play by play of our conference games. Throwing out drives where Sams plays at least one play, as well as drives at the end of each half that don't result in points, Waters has run the offense for 45 drives. Of those 45, 24 have been 4 plays or less and resulted in 0 points. JFC, that is awful. He's H3O 53% of the time. That's way worse that I thought it would be. Keep in mind that this is a very lenient metric that considers 5 plays and a punt or 5 plays and a butt fumble as positive outcomes.

Here is my updated Big 12 drive chart:

[SwiftCat]

I was starting to think that maybe everyone, myself included, was maybe overreacting with this whole H3O business and harping on the 3 and outs and short drives Jake puts together. I mean, how often does that really happen? So, over lunch I looked up the play by play of our conference games. Throwing out drives where Sams plays at least one play, as well as drives at the end of each half that don't result in points, Waters has run the offense for 45 drives. Of those 45, 24 have been 4 plays or less and resulted in 0 points. JFC, that is awful. He's H3O 53% of the time. That's way worse that I thought it would be. Keep in mind that this is a very lenient metric that considers 5 plays and a punt or 5 plays and a butt fumble as positive outcomes.

Good post. Thanks for looking it up.

 I would be curious how often Sams has had two plays, and then faced a 3rd and 7+ and Waters comes in.

[star seed 7]

holy crap, look at those punt and 3 and out numbers.  that jake sure is consistent.

[kso_FAN]

I would be curious how often Sams has had two plays, and then faced a 3rd and 7+ and Waters comes in.

There have been four 3 and out drives where both quarterbacks played. There have been 4 longer drives where both QBs played that resulted in punts.

[ManBearTurkey]

Also, we may be dog crap in bowls because bill probably spends the entire month practicing the gray shirts for next year or something.

I hope that is true and he keeps doing it.

I put zero relevance into winning bowl games. They hold zero competitive meaning IMO. The idea of them is crazy. Taking a whole month off and thinking a team will come back where they left off is stupid. They only serve as a a early winter vacation before my mid-winter vacations.

[Cartierfor3]

Only 5 drives with both of them in all of Big XII play??????????????

[puniraptor]

Is it possible that sams traded starting rights for something in their household since they are roomates?

like daniel really hates cleaning the bathroom and traded his starting quarterback rights for jake being lifetime bathroom cleaner?

[MakeItRain]

I was starting to think that maybe everyone, myself included, was maybe overreacting with this whole H3O business and harping on the 3 and outs and short drives Jake puts together. I mean, how often does that really happen? So, over lunch I looked up the play by play of our conference games. Throwing out drives where Sams plays at least one play, as well as drives at the end of each half that don't result in points, Waters has run the offense for 45 drives. Of those 45, 24 have been 4 plays or less and resulted in 0 points. JFC, that is awful. He's H3O 53% of the time. That's way worse that I thought it would be. Keep in mind that this is a very lenient metric that considers 5 plays and a punt or 5 plays and a butt fumble as positive outcomes.

Here is my updated Big 12 drive chart:

That 3 and out stat, yikes.

Also I wonder if Snyder fell in love with this ball security fallacy with CK. One of the thing that made him great was his ball security, but he was a freakish anomaly in this regard. Is the coaching staff chasing rainbows, during the DoD we didn't sweat ball security because we had explosive QBs who made plays and scored a hell of a lot more than they turned it over.

Alabama and KU are tied at 34th in the nation in TO margin
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/29

[kso_FAN]

Only 5 drives with both of them in all of Big XII play??????????????

5 drives where their play was roughly equal in terms of yards AND plays.

I believe I explained it in the original blog, I gave Sams credit for drives where he had the majority of yards/plays (there are 10) and the same for Waters (he also had 10). Then there were 22 Sams only drives and 46 Waters only drives.

[Cartierfor3]

Only 5 drives with both of them in all of Big XII play??????????????

5 drives where their play was roughly equal in terms of yards AND plays.

I believe I explained it in the original blog, I gave Sams credit for drives where he had the majority of yards/plays (there are 10) and the same for Waters (he also had 10). Then there were 22 Sams only drives and 46 Waters only drives.

Thanks. I should've known that probs.

[kso_FAN]

Also I wonder if Snyder fell in love with this ball security fallacy with CK. One of the thing that made him great was his ball security, but he was a freakish anomaly in this regard. Is the coaching staff chasing rainbows, during the DoD we didn't sweat ball security because we had explosive QBs who made plays and scored a hell of a lot more than they turned it over.

Alabama and KU are tied at 34th in the nation in TO margin
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/29

I think this is a valid point, but again I go back to fumbles and luck. His JR season Klein fumbled the ball 13 times, but we only lost 2 of those fumbles.

[catzacker]

I was starting to think that maybe everyone, myself included, was maybe overreacting with this whole H3O business and harping on the 3 and outs and short drives Jake puts together. I mean, how often does that really happen? So, over lunch I looked up the play by play of our conference games. Throwing out drives where Sams plays at least one play, as well as drives at the end of each half that don't result in points, Waters has run the offense for 45 drives. Of those 45, 24 have been 4 plays or less and resulted in 0 points. JFC, that is awful. He's H3O 53% of the time. That's way worse that I thought it would be. Keep in mind that this is a very lenient metric that considers 5 plays and a punt or 5 plays and a butt fumble as positive outcomes.

Here is my updated Big 12 drive chart:

That 3 and out stat, yikes.

Also I wonder if Snyder fell in love with this ball security fallacy with CK. One of the thing that made him great was his ball security, but he was a freakish anomaly in this regard. Is the coaching staff chasing rainbows, during the DoD we didn't sweat ball security because we had explosive QBs who made plays and scored a hell of a lot more than they turned it over.

Alabama and KU are tied at 34th in the nation in TO margin
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/29

I believe he might value it (and TOP) more now because of the opposing offenses and his defense.  There was one TT back then, now there’s like 8.  And his defense wasn’t built to stop that kind of offense back then either (see Purdue). 

[kso_FAN]

I'd also add that Snyder's emphasis on turnovers the 2nd time around is probably based on the fact that its much more difficult to have a dominant defense like we did during the DOD. Compare below what those defenses looked like compared to the offenses:

[Emo EMAW]

I'd also add that Snyder's emphasis on turnovers the 2nd time around is probably based on the fact that its much more difficult to have a dominant defense like we did during the DOD. Compare below what those defenses looked like compared to the offenses:

You ever thought of getting into XY scatter charts as opposed to tables?

[kso_FAN]

I'd also add that Snyder's emphasis on turnovers the 2nd time around is probably based on the fact that its much more difficult to have a dominant defense like we did during the DOD. Compare below what those defenses looked like compared to the offenses:

You ever thought of getting into XY scatter charts as opposed to tables?

Yeah, those would be better for stuff like that, i'm just lazy enough to not take the extra step.

[star seed 7]