Author Topic: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread  (Read 429485 times)

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Offline OregonSmock

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #250 on: July 26, 2013, 02:28:28 PM »
Translation:  They really don't know, but they'll keep throwing around words like "consensus" and "deniers" to fit a political agenda.


Science has a political agenda, ladies and gentlemen.

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #251 on: July 26, 2013, 02:49:09 PM »

115 scientists, including a Nobel Laureate (that person is a Democrat) told Obama about a year ago that there is no definitive proof that human emissions are responsible for Global "warming" or "Climate Change", Obama now apparently references those scientists with his broad brush political agenda as "flat earthers".   

So yes Beems, politics has now entered science on the Warmist side.

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #252 on: July 26, 2013, 03:20:01 PM »
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23409404



Quote
Professor Rowan Sutton, of Reading University, said computer simulations or models of possible future climate scenarios often show periods of ten years with no warming trend - some even show pauses of 20-25 years.

And Professor Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said observations and models showed that on average there were - or would be - two pauses in warming every century.

I asked why this had not come up in earlier presentations. No one really had an answer, except to say that this "message" about pauses had not been communicated widely.

So where does this leave us, as greenhouse gases emissions keep rising but the temperature does not?

Dr Peter Stott, of the Met Office, pointed out that 12 of the 14 warmest years have occurred since the year 2000 and says that other indicators - like the decline in Arctic sea ice of 12.9% per decade and losses of snow cover and glaciers - still point to a process of manmade warming.

But what about another possibility - that the calculations are wrong?

What if the climate models - which are the very basis for all discussions of what to do about global warming - exaggerate the sensitivity of the climate to rising carbon dioxide?

Dr Stott conceded that the projections showing the most rapid warming now look less likely, given recent observations, but that others remain largely unchanged.

A Met Office briefing document, released at the briefing, says that, even allowing for the temperatures of the last decade, the most likely warming scenario is only reduced by 10% - so "the warming that we might have expected by 2050 would be delayed by only a few years".

Overall, it concludes, the pause "does not materially alter the risks of substantial warming of the Earth by the end of this century."

In other words, global warming is still on.

But until the pause can be properly explained, many people will take a lot of convincing - especially if the pause lasts longer than expected.


Interesting.

Mother nature has put global warming on "pause!" Mother nature is "fighting back!" Eywa has heard you Beems! EYWA HAS HEARRRRD YOU!!! :excited:
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline OregonSmock

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #253 on: July 26, 2013, 03:28:00 PM »
Science has a liberal bias, guys.  In Drudge Report we trust.

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #254 on: July 26, 2013, 03:29:54 PM »
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23409404

Is the met office the one where the "scientists" were caught just a few years ago talking about how to best "hide the decline?" I think it was. I'm pretty sure that was it. Right?
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #255 on: July 26, 2013, 03:54:41 PM »
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23409404



Quote
Professor Rowan Sutton, of Reading University, said computer simulations or models of possible future climate scenarios often show periods of ten years with no warming trend - some even show pauses of 20-25 years.

And Professor Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said observations and models showed that on average there were - or would be - two pauses in warming every century.

I asked why this had not come up in earlier presentations. No one really had an answer, except to say that this "message" about pauses had not been communicated widely.

So where does this leave us, as greenhouse gases emissions keep rising but the temperature does not?

Dr Peter Stott, of the Met Office, pointed out that 12 of the 14 warmest years have occurred since the year 2000 and says that other indicators - like the decline in Arctic sea ice of 12.9% per decade and losses of snow cover and glaciers - still point to a process of manmade warming.

But what about another possibility - that the calculations are wrong?

What if the climate models - which are the very basis for all discussions of what to do about global warming - exaggerate the sensitivity of the climate to rising carbon dioxide?

Dr Stott conceded that the projections showing the most rapid warming now look less likely, given recent observations, but that others remain largely unchanged.

A Met Office briefing document, released at the briefing, says that, even allowing for the temperatures of the last decade, the most likely warming scenario is only reduced by 10% - so "the warming that we might have expected by 2050 would be delayed by only a few years".

Overall, it concludes, the pause "does not materially alter the risks of substantial warming of the Earth by the end of this century."

In other words, global warming is still on.

But until the pause can be properly explained, many people will take a lot of convincing - especially if the pause lasts longer than expected.


Interesting.

More questions than answers.  Maybe they just need more tax dollars for more studies.

Offline WillieWatanabe

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #256 on: July 26, 2013, 03:57:43 PM »


#TEAM BLOGGERS
Sometimes I think of the Book of Job and how God likes to really eff with people.
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Offline OregonSmock

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #257 on: July 26, 2013, 04:50:51 PM »
Incredible scientific research there.  I may seek your expertise on the fundamentals of particle physics as well.

Offline ednksu

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #258 on: July 26, 2013, 06:38:24 PM »
https://www.facebook.com/NASAClimateChange






eff facts when you have rhetoric!!!!
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Offline sys

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #259 on: July 26, 2013, 07:42:34 PM »
that's, like, really suggestive of a tight correlation.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline WillieWatanabe

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #260 on: July 26, 2013, 08:52:18 PM »
I'm glad our mid 1900s carbon emissions were pud.  unlike our current ones.
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Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #261 on: July 26, 2013, 09:26:10 PM »
that's, like, really suggestive of a tight correlation.

Yeah, NASA and the Japanese Meteorology Dept were doing god's work back in the 1880's
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Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #262 on: July 26, 2013, 09:27:30 PM »
LOL, at anyone that doesn't think this debate is 99% political.  One side wants to raise taxes, the other doesn't.
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Offline ednksu

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #263 on: July 26, 2013, 11:30:29 PM »
LOL, at anyone that doesn't think this debate is 99% political.  One side wants to raise taxes, the other doesn't.
and one side doesn't have to breath exclusively through their mouths


see if you can fake it brah
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Offline HeinBallz

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If the models are all wrong
« Reply #264 on: July 27, 2013, 09:28:49 AM »
Good is better than Evil because it's nicer.

Offline HeinBallz

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If the models are all wrong
« Reply #265 on: July 27, 2013, 09:43:13 AM »
Good is better than Evil because it's nicer.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #266 on: July 27, 2013, 09:59:13 AM »
To expand on political motivation

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3NZuh4_A5kw&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D3NZuh4_A5kw#

http://www.desmogblog.com/who-is-rocket-scientist-david-evans

Quote
According to his own resume, Evans has not published a single peer-reviewed research paper on the subject of climate change. Evans published only a single paper in 1987 in his career and it is unrelated to climate change.

Evans has published an article for the Alabama-based Ludwig von Mises Instutute, a right-wing free-market think tank.

I wish dax would post more theories/facts from reputable sources.  What we do know is that HeinzBallz source is completely unreliable.

More on "rocket scientist" Dr. David Evans:

Quote
In US academic and industry parlance, "rocket scientist" means anyone who has completed a PhD in one of the hard sciences at one of the top US institutions. The term arose for people who *could* do rocket science, not those who literally build rockets.Thus the term "rocket scientist" means someone with a PhD in physics, electrical engineering, or mathematics (or perhaps a couple of other closely related disciplines), from MIT, Stanford, Caltech, and maybe a few other institutions.

I did a PhD in electrical engineering at Stanford in the 1980s. Electrical engineering is your basic high tech degree, because most high technology spawned from electrical information technology. I specialized in signal processing, maths, and statistics.
The definition provided by Evans would appear to be at odds with the conventional use of the term 'rocket scientist' which according to various sources is "One specializing in the science or study of rockets and their design." For example, here's an entry on Answers.com about Hermann Oberth a famous Rocket Scientist who published a book about rocket travel into outer space in 1932 and is considered one of 3 founding fathers of modern rocketry and astronautics.

Evans also claims to be "building a word processor for Windows." DeSmogBlog contacted Microsoft Corp. and they have confirmed that he does not work for Microsoft Corporation.


I would find a more reputable source.

Offline OregonSmock

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #267 on: July 27, 2013, 02:41:02 PM »
It's really sad that so many people are willing to completely dismiss the scientific consensus in favor of some right wing blogger who works for Big Oil.  We deserve extinction at this point.

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #268 on: July 27, 2013, 03:35:41 PM »
It's really sad that so many people are willing to completely dismiss the scientific consensus in favor of some right wing blogger who works for Big Oil.  We deserve extinction at this point.

Exhibit A for the political argument.  What a rough ridin' Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!). Please stop breathing, youare suffocating us with your CO2
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Offline HeinBallz

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If the models are all wrong
« Reply #269 on: July 27, 2013, 06:25:59 PM »
To expand on political motivation

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3NZuh4_A5kw&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D3NZuh4_A5kw#

http://www.desmogblog.com/who-is-rocket-scientist-david-evans

Quote
According to his own resume, Evans has not published a single peer-reviewed research paper on the subject of climate change. Evans published only a single paper in 1987 in his career and it is unrelated to climate change.

Evans has published an article for the Alabama-based Ludwig von Mises Instutute, a right-wing free-market think tank.

I wish dax would post more theories/facts from reputable sources.  What we do know is that HeinzBallz source is completely unreliable.

More on "rocket scientist" Dr. David Evans:

Quote
In US academic and industry parlance, "rocket scientist" means anyone who has completed a PhD in one of the hard sciences at one of the top US institutions. The term arose for people who *could* do rocket science, not those who literally build rockets.Thus the term "rocket scientist" means someone with a PhD in physics, electrical engineering, or mathematics (or perhaps a couple of other closely related disciplines), from MIT, Stanford, Caltech, and maybe a few other institutions.

I did a PhD in electrical engineering at Stanford in the 1980s. Electrical engineering is your basic high tech degree, because most high technology spawned from electrical information technology. I specialized in signal processing, maths, and statistics.
The definition provided by Evans would appear to be at odds with the conventional use of the term 'rocket scientist' which according to various sources is "One specializing in the science or study of rockets and their design." For example, here's an entry on Answers.com about Hermann Oberth a famous Rocket Scientist who published a book about rocket travel into outer space in 1932 and is considered one of 3 founding fathers of modern rocketry and astronautics.

Evans also claims to be "building a word processor for Windows." DeSmogBlog contacted Microsoft Corp. and they have confirmed that he does not work for Microsoft Corporation.


I would find a more reputable source.

:DNR:

Anyone who refers to Ludwig Von Mises as right winged doesn't know what they're talking about. Bet they would also say Ayn Rand was a commie. 
Good is better than Evil because it's nicer.

Offline Goldbrick

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #270 on: July 27, 2013, 07:02:38 PM »
Doesn't matter whether its real or not. There has been no legitimate (read: non-insane) solution or trade-off suggested for what we should do to combat any of it.

And since the 'solutions' typically involve far leftist drivel its pretty easy to see the politics involved isn't solely on the right.

Consensus is also utterly meaningless in science. Scientific history is simply a list of former things that once had 'consensus' until they were found not to be so. Given how deeply complex this issue is, and how incredibly incompetent so many of the leading advocates have been, there is plenty of reason to simply do nothing and wait.

My money says we won't be sorry should we choose to do nothing.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #271 on: July 27, 2013, 07:18:06 PM »
To expand on political motivation

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3NZuh4_A5kw&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D3NZuh4_A5kw#

http://www.desmogblog.com/who-is-rocket-scientist-david-evans

Quote
According to his own resume, Evans has not published a single peer-reviewed research paper on the subject of climate change. Evans published only a single paper in 1987 in his career and it is unrelated to climate change.

Evans has published an article for the Alabama-based Ludwig von Mises Instutute, a right-wing free-market think tank.

I wish dax would post more theories/facts from reputable sources.  What we do know is that HeinzBallz source is completely unreliable.

More on "rocket scientist" Dr. David Evans:

Quote
In US academic and industry parlance, "rocket scientist" means anyone who has completed a PhD in one of the hard sciences at one of the top US institutions. The term arose for people who *could* do rocket science, not those who literally build rockets.Thus the term "rocket scientist" means someone with a PhD in physics, electrical engineering, or mathematics (or perhaps a couple of other closely related disciplines), from MIT, Stanford, Caltech, and maybe a few other institutions.

I did a PhD in electrical engineering at Stanford in the 1980s. Electrical engineering is your basic high tech degree, because most high technology spawned from electrical information technology. I specialized in signal processing, maths, and statistics.
The definition provided by Evans would appear to be at odds with the conventional use of the term 'rocket scientist' which according to various sources is "One specializing in the science or study of rockets and their design." For example, here's an entry on Answers.com about Hermann Oberth a famous Rocket Scientist who published a book about rocket travel into outer space in 1932 and is considered one of 3 founding fathers of modern rocketry and astronautics.

Evans also claims to be "building a word processor for Windows." DeSmogBlog contacted Microsoft Corp. and they have confirmed that he does not work for Microsoft Corporation.


I would find a more reputable source.

:DNR:

Anyone who refers to Ludwig Von Mises as right winged doesn't know what they're talking about. Bet they would also say Ayn Rand was a commie.

Ludwig Von Mises and Ayn Rand have quite a bit in common.  Which was the bloggers point.   

But feel free to take the word of a self-described "rocket scientist" who is a charlatan.  I mean if you believe what he is saying, I'm not sure how you view that particular individual as anything better than a self-important opportunist.  He has misrepresented himself, he continued to do so after being confronted.  If that is who you offer up as an expert with an important critique then maybe you should find some better evidence.

Offline HeinBallz

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If the models are all wrong
« Reply #272 on: July 27, 2013, 08:31:13 PM »

Ludwig Von Mises and Ayn Rand have quite a bit in common.  Which was the bloggers point.   

Mises was an anarcho capitalist; Ayn Rand believed in extremely limited government.    Therefore, if anarcho capitalism is right wing, then the tea party are nothing but a bunch of pinko's. 

Good is better than Evil because it's nicer.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #273 on: July 27, 2013, 08:37:38 PM »

Ludwig Von Mises and Ayn Rand have quite a bit in common.  Which was the bloggers point.   

Mises was an anarcho capitalist; Ayn Rand believed in extremely limited government.    Therefore, if anarcho capitalism is right wing, then the tea party are nothing but a bunch of pinko's.

You are terrible at logic.  Your first sentence matches what I said your second sentence was a non-sequitor.  I can see why you like reading random self-proclaimed experts.

Offline HeinBallz

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If the models are all wrong
« Reply #274 on: July 27, 2013, 09:07:22 PM »

Ludwig Von Mises and Ayn Rand have quite a bit in common.  Which was the bloggers point.   

Mises was an anarcho capitalist; Ayn Rand believed in extremely limited government.    Therefore, if anarcho capitalism is right wing, then the tea party are nothing but a bunch of pinko's.

You are terrible at logic.  Your first sentence matches what I said your second sentence was a non-sequitor.  I can see why you like reading random self-proclaimed experts.

I don't think you know what a non-sequitur is, nor do you know what anarcho capitalism is.  Perhaps you could form some more run on sentences to attack my intellect though.
Good is better than Evil because it's nicer.