Author Topic: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread  (Read 436037 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53291
    • View Profile
The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3925 on: January 30, 2019, 10:03:20 PM »
The mining of most of the heavy metals used in ICs is also horrific but I don't see you on a campaign to stop using computers. You seem to only have a stick in your ass about the one technology that can help reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.
Because there’s better ways than electric cars.   

I'm ALL ears...

Don’t worry Trey, while your still fapping it out over electric cars, the Chinese will control the fuel cell vehicle market.

Great, I love fuel cells - what we talking about here? Hydrogen? Methanol? Solid oxide? Give me some specs, man.

This isn’t the Scientific American forum, take your smartest guy in the room act down the hall.

Offline chum1

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 21917
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3926 on: January 30, 2019, 10:16:54 PM »
spracne, dax is to perceived hypocrisy as you are to puns.  a man cannot turn from whence the siren song summons him

I think superficial yet not actual hypocrisy is the basis of his entire theory of morality.

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53291
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3927 on: January 30, 2019, 10:22:48 PM »
spracne, dax is to perceived hypocrisy as you are to puns.  a man cannot turn from whence the siren song summons him

I think superficial yet not actual hypocrisy is the basis of his entire theory of morality.

Morality ain’t got nothing to do with it.

Offline treysolid

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3483
  • complacent and self-involved
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3928 on: January 30, 2019, 10:24:25 PM »
The mining of most of the heavy metals used in ICs is also horrific but I don't see you on a campaign to stop using computers. You seem to only have a stick in your ass about the one technology that can help reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.
Because there’s better ways than electric cars.   

I'm ALL ears...

Don’t worry Trey, while your still fapping it out over electric cars, the Chinese will control the fuel cell vehicle market.

Great, I love fuel cells - what we talking about here? Hydrogen? Methanol? Solid oxide? Give me some specs, man.

This isn’t the Scientific American forum, take your smartest guy in the room act down the hall.

If you lack a fundamental understanding of the base technology, then you're going to be immediately out of your depth when it comes to predicting market forces. Fuel cell prototypes for cars are overwhelmingly hydrogen-based. And as of right now, 95% of the world production of hydrogen comes from fossil fuels. So...not as clean as you think. Plus, consumer sentiment for riding around in a land-based version of the Hindenburg is going to be quite the obstacle to mass adoption.

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53291
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3929 on: January 30, 2019, 10:31:42 PM »
The mining of most of the heavy metals used in ICs is also horrific but I don't see you on a campaign to stop using computers. You seem to only have a stick in your ass about the one technology that can help reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.
Because there’s better ways than electric cars.   

I'm ALL ears...

Don’t worry Trey, while your still fapping it out over electric cars, the Chinese will control the fuel cell vehicle market.

Great, I love fuel cells - what we talking about here? Hydrogen? Methanol? Solid oxide? Give me some specs, man.

This isn’t the Scientific American forum, take your smartest guy in the room act down the hall.

If you lack a fundamental understanding of the base technology, then you're going to be immediately out of your depth when it comes to predicting market forces. Fuel cell prototypes for cars are overwhelmingly hydrogen-based. And as of right now, 95% of the world production of hydrogen comes from fossil fuels. So...not as clean as you think. Plus, consumer sentiment for riding around in a land-based version of the Hindenburg is going to be quite the obstacle to mass adoption.

1.  I don’t need to get down into the weeds to read about and comprehend market forces

2.  Never said anything about how clean or not clean FC’s were

3.  If FCV are indeed as dangerous as you claim why are some the biggest liability claim targets on our planet pursuing them?  Why in the world are municipalities hauling around people by the bus load in fuel cell vehicles?   

Offline treysolid

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3483
  • complacent and self-involved
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3930 on: January 30, 2019, 10:55:21 PM »
The mining of most of the heavy metals used in ICs is also horrific but I don't see you on a campaign to stop using computers. You seem to only have a stick in your ass about the one technology that can help reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.
Because there’s better ways than electric cars.   

I'm ALL ears...

Don’t worry Trey, while your still fapping it out over electric cars, the Chinese will control the fuel cell vehicle market.

Great, I love fuel cells - what we talking about here? Hydrogen? Methanol? Solid oxide? Give me some specs, man.

This isn’t the Scientific American forum, take your smartest guy in the room act down the hall.

If you lack a fundamental understanding of the base technology, then you're going to be immediately out of your depth when it comes to predicting market forces. Fuel cell prototypes for cars are overwhelmingly hydrogen-based. And as of right now, 95% of the world production of hydrogen comes from fossil fuels. So...not as clean as you think. Plus, consumer sentiment for riding around in a land-based version of the Hindenburg is going to be quite the obstacle to mass adoption.

1.  I don’t need to get down into the weeds to read about and comprehend market forces
I suppose that a poor comprehension still counts as a comprehension of sorts
2.  Never said anything about how clean or not clean FC’s were
Remember when you were railing against electric cars because of how terrible lithium mining is for the environment... and then proceeded to claim that fuel cells were better...
3.  If FCV are indeed as dangerous as you claim why are some the biggest liability claim targets on our planet pursuing them?  Why in the world are municipalities hauling around people by the bus load in fuel cell vehicles?
Hydrogen has the same stigma as nuclear fission. It doesn't matter if the plant will never melt down, people don't want to live near it, because what if? You're correct that there are fuel cell buses used for public transport in the States, but there's less than 70 in the entire country ( :lol:) People probably aren't even aware that they might be riding in a hydrogen-powered bus and even if they are, they're more willing to take the risk of a 15 minute ride to work as opposed to having a vehicle full of hydrogen sitting in their garage night after night while they sleep

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53291
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3931 on: January 31, 2019, 11:49:07 AM »
The mining of most of the heavy metals used in ICs is also horrific but I don't see you on a campaign to stop using computers. You seem to only have a stick in your ass about the one technology that can help reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.
Because there’s better ways than electric cars.   

I'm ALL ears...

Don’t worry Trey, while your still fapping it out over electric cars, the Chinese will control the fuel cell vehicle market.

Great, I love fuel cells - what we talking about here? Hydrogen? Methanol? Solid oxide? Give me some specs, man.

This isn’t the Scientific American forum, take your smartest guy in the room act down the hall.

If you lack a fundamental understanding of the base technology, then you're going to be immediately out of your depth when it comes to predicting market forces. Fuel cell prototypes for cars are overwhelmingly hydrogen-based. And as of right now, 95% of the world production of hydrogen comes from fossil fuels. So...not as clean as you think. Plus, consumer sentiment for riding around in a land-based version of the Hindenburg is going to be quite the obstacle to mass adoption.

1.  I don’t need to get down into the weeds to read about and comprehend market forces
I suppose that a poor comprehension still counts as a comprehension of sorts
2.  Never said anything about how clean or not clean FC’s were
Remember when you were railing against electric cars because of how terrible lithium mining is for the environment... and then proceeded to claim that fuel cells were better...
3.  If FCV are indeed as dangerous as you claim why are some the biggest liability claim targets on our planet pursuing them?  Why in the world are municipalities hauling around people by the bus load in fuel cell vehicles?
Hydrogen has the same stigma as nuclear fission. It doesn't matter if the plant will never melt down, people don't want to live near it, because what if? You're correct that there are fuel cell buses used for public transport in the States, but there's less than 70 in the entire country ( :lol:) People probably aren't even aware that they might be riding in a hydrogen-powered bus and even if they are, they're more willing to take the risk of a 15 minute ride to work as opposed to having a vehicle full of hydrogen sitting in their garage night after night while they sleep

Thanks for that series of straw men Trey, none of which has nothing to do with the discussion at hand.  Unless you're going to try and tell us the manufacturing of batteries doesn't pollute etc. etc.

Here's a little pro-tip friend, a major world wide automobile manufacturer, who, out of all automobile companies that have existed on this planet has probably made the most right calls in their entire existence . . . is going very deep with FUEL CELL Vehicles, in fact, some of their engineers equate electric cars with the steam locomotive, perfect for the short term, but not at all the long play. 

Now, you can continue your silly little smartest guy in the room charade and keep harping about all the "bombs" that will be going down the road, but I doubt said huge automobile company is going to spend billions to send people out on the streets in bombs, with said company just crossing their fingers and hoping the dumb ol public, various oversight agencies and all the lawyers out in that public don't figure that out.

Now lets talk about distribution.   Pro-Top 2:  Very smart massive automobile company is working with commercial truck builders on FC's for commercial trucks.    I know you're not the brightest person, but one can only imagine the joy many of the hated by greenies trucking companies would have if they could get long range, powerful, fuel cell vehicles and be able to hit the roads cranking a lot less emissions.   Now, if that application comes to pass, the distribution problem will be resolved, almost over night.   Thus endeth Pro Tip 2.

Pro Tip 3:  The manufacturing process of fuel cells is rapidly evolving to the point that precious metal needs in that process are being eliminated in factors calculated in tens of percentage points at a time.    Not to mention engineering evolving to the point that FC's will essentially be mere bolt on's to existing models/chassis and much easier to implement into mass assembly processes and requiring less re-tooling of plants.   End of Pro Tip 3.





« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 11:54:22 AM by sonofdaxjones »

Offline CHONGS

  • Master of the Atom
  • Administrator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 19427
    • View Profile
    • goEMAW.com
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3932 on: January 31, 2019, 12:17:07 PM »
Quote
Here's a little pro-tip friend, a major world wide automobile manufacturer, who, out of all automobile companies that have existed on this planet has probably made the most right calls in their entire existence . . . is going very deep with FUEL CELL Vehicles, in fact, some of their engineers equate electric cars with the steam locomotive, perfect for the short term, but not at all the long play. 
Why are you being coy about who this is?  Is this some super secret insider info only dax has heard about?

Offline CHONGS

  • Master of the Atom
  • Administrator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 19427
    • View Profile
    • goEMAW.com
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3933 on: January 31, 2019, 12:19:56 PM »
OMG are you talking about Hyundai Motor Group? :lol:

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53291
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3934 on: January 31, 2019, 12:22:43 PM »
Toyota, you may have heard of them.

Why would you laugh about Hyundai though, they generated $91 billion dollars in revenue last year.   FFS Chin.




Offline CHONGS

  • Master of the Atom
  • Administrator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 19427
    • View Profile
    • goEMAW.com
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3935 on: January 31, 2019, 12:31:06 PM »
Oh dax....

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53291
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3936 on: January 31, 2019, 12:32:18 PM »

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53291
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3937 on: January 31, 2019, 12:32:43 PM »
For SysWhack-A-Doo

https://cafcp.org/

Offline CHONGS

  • Master of the Atom
  • Administrator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 19427
    • View Profile
    • goEMAW.com
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3938 on: January 31, 2019, 12:34:40 PM »
:lol:

Online sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40522
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Online star seed 7

  • hyperactive on the :lol:
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 64033
  • good dog
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3940 on: January 31, 2019, 12:41:09 PM »
Sys just got savagely owned I think
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline treysolid

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3483
  • complacent and self-involved
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3941 on: January 31, 2019, 12:51:51 PM »
I don't think you know what the definition of a straw-man argument is. All of my points are valid. Hydrogen fuel cells still have many obstacles to climb before they are commercially-viable.

A) The stigma of having an extremely explosive substance powering vehicles. Already stated.
B) How is the hydrogen made? A FC that uses hydrogen made from coal gasification (the most common method currently) is way less clean that an electric motor powered by renewable energy. I'm not implying that every EV uses clean energy, but it's feasible - unlike hydrogen generation, which doesn't even have the option of using renewable power right now because water hydrolysis is super inefficient (currently).
C) How are you going to transport the hydrogen? Pipes? Who's going to build all that infrastructure? Tanker trucks? There's not a great, safe way to transport this fuel on a national scale, which gives EVs a huge leg up because we already have a pre-existing electrical grid.
D) There's also the fact that EVs are ~100% efficient (battery to electric motor) while HFCs (hydrogen to electric motor) are only 40-60% efficient.

If Toyota can figure out solutions to all of this, good on them. And you'll be seeing me driving around in my hydrogen car in 2035. But I'm pretty skeptical for right now.

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53291
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3942 on: January 31, 2019, 06:26:43 PM »
Thanks for all of your Captain Obvious talking points Trey.   Anyone with the slightest semblance of knowledge on the topic already knows all of what you just said.


I appreciate how you've dismissed all the inherent issues with EV's, and the fact that EV's power systems still require copious amounts of resources in order to produce and are a long, long way from being able to do anything beyond boutique level lifting on a broad scale.    Not to mention the inherent issues of time to recharge etc. etc.  Which renders EV unfeasible for many transportation industries. 

FCV/NCV will be trickle down from commercial grade into the main stream, IMO.




Offline treysolid

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3483
  • complacent and self-involved
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3943 on: January 31, 2019, 10:41:38 PM »
Thanks for all of your Captain Obvious talking points Trey.   Anyone with the slightest semblance of knowledge on the topic already knows all of what you just said.


I appreciate how you've dismissed all the inherent issues with EV's, and the fact that EV's power systems still require copious amounts of resources in order to produce and are a long, long way from being able to do anything beyond boutique level lifting on a broad scale.    Not to mention the inherent issues of time to recharge etc. etc.  Which renders EV unfeasible for many transportation industries. 

FCV/NCV will be trickle down from commercial grade into the main stream, IMO.

Yeah, I'm sure you knew all that crap.  :jerk:

I haven't dismissed ANY of the disadvantages of Li-ion EVs, I simply haven't addressed them and I don't think they outweigh the positives for long-term implementation. Yes, Lithium mining is resource intensive (particularly water-intensive), but that burden can be partially offset due to the fact that Lithium batteries are recyclable. Also, let's not act like coal gasification isn't incredibly resource intensive as well, considering that coal is only 5% hydrogen and you also need a considerable amount of water for the extraction process. Lithium mining also has a much smaller carbon footprint (1 ton carbon dioxide for every ton of lithium carbonate) compared to coal mining and gasification (4 tons of carbon dioxide for every ton of coal). And I would argue that Lithium mining has a drastically smaller human cost associated with it as well.

Recharge time is definitely a huge obstacle for widespread implementation of Li-ion EVs for long distance transport. Nobody wants to wait an hour for every 250-350 miles (or so) that they drive. I personally think that this is a relatively minor problem since the vast majority of driving is performed in this range. Long-haul trucking will require further innovation, but this is a problem that is well-understood by the battery industry. I would say that the main challenges moving forward with Li-ion tech is improving battery safety, increasing storage density and efficiency (solid-state batteries can help here), and decreasing charge time (hopefully by incorporating supercapacitor-type technology). Thankfully, there's a ton of innovation in the field right now.

From a personal standpoint, I'm a huge fan of EVs because I believe that the increased load from having our daily commutes powered by electricity is pretty much the only thing that will be able to force utilities to overhaul and upgrade the electrical grid. Even if EV technology is surpassed by something else in the future (perhaps even hydrogen fuel cells), the improvements made to the grid in the next 10-15 years are going to make us much safer and more energy secure (fewer blackouts, etc).

Offline Spracne

  • Point Plank'r
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *
  • Posts: 21427
  • Scholar/Gentleman, But Super Earthy/Organic
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3944 on: January 31, 2019, 11:54:18 PM »
Is the answer to do away with doors? Anecdotal, I know, but when my office door is open compared to when my door is closed, there is nearly a 0:1 gasification ratio in my environment.

Offline puniraptor

  • Tastemaker
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 21336
  • nostalgic reason
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3945 on: February 01, 2019, 03:34:53 AM »
The true future is wireless electricity. BEV and FCV are just placeholders

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53291
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3946 on: February 01, 2019, 07:12:46 AM »
Thanks for all of your Captain Obvious talking points Trey.   Anyone with the slightest semblance of knowledge on the topic already knows all of what you just said.


I appreciate how you've dismissed all the inherent issues with EV's, and the fact that EV's power systems still require copious amounts of resources in order to produce and are a long, long way from being able to do anything beyond boutique level lifting on a broad scale.    Not to mention the inherent issues of time to recharge etc. etc.  Which renders EV unfeasible for many transportation industries. 

FCV/NCV will be trickle down from commercial grade into the main stream, IMO.

Yeah, I'm sure you knew all that crap.  :jerk:

I haven't dismissed ANY of the disadvantages of Li-ion EVs, I simply haven't addressed them and I don't think they outweigh the positives for long-term implementation. Yes, Lithium mining is resource intensive (particularly water-intensive), but that burden can be partially offset due to the fact that Lithium batteries are recyclable. Also, let's not act like coal gasification isn't incredibly resource intensive as well, considering that coal is only 5% hydrogen and you also need a considerable amount of water for the extraction process. Lithium mining also has a much smaller carbon footprint (1 ton carbon dioxide for every ton of lithium carbonate) compared to coal mining and gasification (4 tons of carbon dioxide for every ton of coal). And I would argue that Lithium mining has a drastically smaller human cost associated with it as well.

Recharge time is definitely a huge obstacle for widespread implementation of Li-ion EVs for long distance transport. Nobody wants to wait an hour for every 250-350 miles (or so) that they drive. I personally think that this is a relatively minor problem since the vast majority of driving is performed in this range. Long-haul trucking will require further innovation, but this is a problem that is well-understood by the battery industry. I would say that the main challenges moving forward with Li-ion tech is improving battery safety, increasing storage density and efficiency (solid-state batteries can help here), and decreasing charge time (hopefully by incorporating supercapacitor-type technology). Thankfully, there's a ton of innovation in the field right now.

From a personal standpoint, I'm a huge fan of EVs because I believe that the increased load from having our daily commutes powered by electricity is pretty much the only thing that will be able to force utilities to overhaul and upgrade the electrical grid. Even if EV technology is surpassed by something else in the future (perhaps even hydrogen fuel cells), the improvements made to the grid in the next 10-15 years are going to make us much safer and more energy secure (fewer blackouts, etc).

It is highly doubtful that massive improvements to the power grid will occur in the next 10-15 years.  This is why back up power systems companies are flourishing.  Right now we have one of the largest public utilities in the country in or about to be in bankruptcy because they didn’t properly maintain their grid.

Offline steve dave

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 85333
  • Romantic Fist Attachment
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3947 on: February 01, 2019, 07:38:19 AM »

Offline treysolid

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3483
  • complacent and self-involved
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3948 on: February 01, 2019, 09:06:25 AM »
It is highly doubtful that massive improvements to the power grid will occur in the next 10-15 years.  This is why back up power systems companies are flourishing.  Right now we have one of the largest public utilities in the country in or about to be in bankruptcy because they didn’t properly maintain their grid.

These two statements appear incongruent. You're essentially stating that you believe that utilities would rather go bankrupt than make the necessary investments in their infrastructure?

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53291
    • View Profile
Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3949 on: February 01, 2019, 10:20:27 AM »
It is highly doubtful that massive improvements to the power grid will occur in the next 10-15 years.  This is why back up power systems companies are flourishing.  Right now we have one of the largest public utilities in the country in or about to be in bankruptcy because they didn’t properly maintain their grid.

These two statements appear incongruent. You're essentially stating that you believe that utilities would rather go bankrupt than make the necessary investments in their infrastructure?

PG&E is likely going to file bankruptcy (if they haven't already) because they failed to properly maintain their power grid, which in turn caused numerous wildfires in which they were found liable for . . . if one of the largest power companies in the United States has done such a poor job of maintaining their grid, then you can only imagine what it's like elsewhere.     On most grids a singular ice storm or hurricane would render them non-workable for weeks, if not months in some circumstances.   We're talking decades and billions upon billions of dollars to remedy that situation.   That's not a system you want to go all in on with the backbone of your transportation systems.   Not to mention the fact that EV's are no where near being able to haul the proverbial freight if you will on the commercial side.    FYI Germany is converting 15 trains to FC power.