New To Investing Thread

[steve dave]

and SOME technical analysis nerds will tell you if we break below that trend to hold onto your asses

[steve dave]

Me: I’m going bull mode now.

You guys: Why now steve dave?

Me: Because I’m incredibly bearish and that’s traditionally been as concrete of a bull signal as you can find.

Let’s buy fellas and girl fellas


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[Kat Kid]

Me: I’m going bull mode now.

You guys: Why now steve dave?

Me: Because I’m incredibly bearish and that’s traditionally been as concrete of a bull signal as you can find.

Let’s buy fellas and girl fellas


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When you posted that Carter Braxton Worth crap I got horned up to buy.

[cfbandyman]

Yes, now has been such a good time to just grab a ton of things

[bucket]

https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1573375529197391872

[sys]

finally hit on a couple of limit orders.  as always when the markets fall, i find myself wishing i held more in cash.

[catastrophe]

I suck so bad at timing the market. At least it’s all the confirmation I need to not quit my day job.

[Kat Kid]

I was buyin’!

[DaBigTrain]

I bought some $META today

[ben ji]

I haven't checked my ira's in like 4 months (check them at least weekly when my stonks are going up).

I have like 20% of my regular IRA in Bonds. Should I sell half and stock up on some sweet sweet equities? Maybe 25% of my bonds to equities for now?

My first investing experience was in like 2010 and stonks had gone down bad but they have only gone up since then.

Usually I rebalance around Thanksgiving every year but is it worth biting the bit and doing it sooner?

[steve dave]

I’ve got some bad news about how your bonds have most likely been doing..,,


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[catastrophe]

But it the bonds only went down 10% and stocks went down 20%, I could see an argument!

[Kat Kid]

I’m being serious here, but why do you have 20% in bonds? Just seems like a lot of money left on the table.

Listen, I have been doing dumb trades myself and not just being in an index fund so I am not close to being perfectly allocated myself but I just don’t see much point in bonds even as a cash equivalent these days.

If you are out on the risk curve with me you can use the s&p 500 as cash or like Berkshire or a solid dividend producer. But again, there are probably people smarter than me that might be ready to buy bonds now.

If you have already accepted the conceit that you are going to “time” the market by “re-allocating” then you might consider lowering your exposure to bonds though as your time horizon is probably far enough out that it should not even be 20%.

[IPA4Me]

Don't fish for the bottom. Just wait for the market approach pre-pandemic levels. Long way down to S&P 500 at 3200.

If you bought this run-up, GTFO until the Fed pivots. They're looking for CPE at 2%. You're going to see some bear market rallies along the way but there will be an overall decline until the Fed achieves its goal of 2%.



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[IPA4Me]

Obviously, there is no guarantee that we stop at 3200. I've seen projections below that. It all depends on how high the Fed drives rates to suppress inflation. Yes, there's going to be pain. Many will lose their jobs. The low unemployment is a partial driver here. High housing costs are driving bigly. Once unemployment starts going up, we'll see housing market make a big move downward (people can't pay their mortgage when unemployed). That will drop CPE.

We're already starting to see some supply side easing as container shipping rates are dropping. Haven't seen much chatter on port backlogs in a while. I presume we're flowing again. Chip makes are reporting lower demand as well as increased inventories. That will help ease things.

Used car inventory is also increasing. Auction prices have dropped significantly. They've dropped so far that a lot of banks and dealers are not meeting minimum - no sale. You'll see a big write-off in the coming months. 2023 should be a good year to buy a used car.

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[wetwillie]

Don’t agree on housing prices.  The supply side is still out of whack and is going to make it very difficult for a big move down to happen imo.

[IPA4Me]

Then expect extreme pain from Fed. They want CPE at 2%.

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[IPA4Me]

https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1580536672885780480?t=USolQWQ-GtjMXheY9oFJCQ&s=19


Came in hotter again.

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[IPA4Me]

Oh. New 2022 low premarket.



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[Justwin]

Then expect extreme pain from Fed. They want CPE at 2%.

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What do you mean when you say CPE? Are you referring to the CPI or PCE?

[IPA4Me]

Then expect extreme pain from Fed. They want CPE at 2%.

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What do you mean when you say CPE? Are you referring to the CPI or PCE?

Not confused. Typo.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/01/28/the-fed-uses-one-inflation-gauge-as-its-north-star-heres-why.html

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[bucket]

In your face, IPA! We're back, baby! 

[yoga-like_abana]

2023 should be a good year to buy a used car.

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Definitely agree with this part

[IPA4Me]

In your face, IPA! We're back, baby! 

Welcome to the bear rally. Pain awaits you.

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[IPA4Me]

Then expect extreme pain from Fed. They want CPE at 2%.

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What do you mean when you say CPE? Are you referring to the CPI or PCE?

Not confused. Typo.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/01/28/the-fed-uses-one-inflation-gauge-as-its-north-star-heres-why.html

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Follow up. Remember these words as we watch today's bear rally. We're still going the wrong way on inflation. Expect rate hike of 75 (most likely) or 100 (not off the table) bps.

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