TL;DR: Nino plays too much, JO and DJamer not enough.
I have been a bit puzzled about oscar's rotations and starting lineups, so I thought I would take a bit of time to look at them more in-depth. I went through and took a look at the starters for every game, starting with a season overview, going in-depth on some of the notable non-con games so far. This thing got long, but if you stick through it I think you will see that there is ample evidence to suggest that our post minutes are being badly mishandled.
Season Starts and Bench Minutes
position name games played-games started
PG- Angel (11-11)
G- Will (12-12)
G- Rod (12-12)
F- Nino (11-10)
F- Gip/JO (6 starts each)
*G/F- Shane (10-3 picking up the missed starts from Nino/Angel)
Comment
A few things here. The guard slots basically have been unchanged and there is nothing to really report there outside of the fact that Tay has zero starts thus far and Southwell has 3. Both are slight surprises to me. The second thing that really stands out (which I will expound upon later) is what is happening with the bigs. Gipson and JO have 6 starts a piece while Nino has been a fixture at the four. The strange thing is that minutes wise Gipson is the most played big (20.9mpg), followed by Nino (16mpg) and JO/Diaz/DJamer all close together. My guess is oscar views Nino as his "energy" guy and wants him on the floor to start the game, then hopes that JO/Diaz/DJamer can come in and provide some size right as the back up bigs are coming in or the starting oppo bigs may be tiring/have picked up a foul.
Bench minutes
*6th man
*Shane 19mpg
Tay 17 mpg
Omari 10 mpg
Bigs
JO 13 mpg
DJamer 13 mpg
Diaz 11 mpg
Comment
When looking at the entire season, it would appear that oscar thinks roughly equally of JO/DJamer/Diaz and likes Gip and Nino the best of the 5. But looking at the most recent lineups that isn't exactly the case. The early evidence was mixed, with Nino getting starts, very little of Gip, small but growing minutes for DJamer (who had some really nice games early) and Diaz and JO roughly equal, but with JO getting starts. I was pretty furious at the time, but I have to admit oscar has shown some progress, although I might wonder why it took him so long to figure some basic facts out (like Diaz is much worse than JO) and I don't think I am going to ever win on this Nino thing. But I offer the following evidence that at least the Diaz problem it is getting better, while other problems have emerged [ starters in bold, minutes in () ]:
Michigan:
Nino (12)
JO (16)
DJamer (18)
Diaz (13)
Gip (11)
Terrible minute distribution.
George Washington:
Nino (16)
Gip (31)
JO (16)
DJamer (12)
Diaz (5)
Much better and getting close to my ideal distribution of minutes.
Gonzaga:
Nino (6, got injured)
Gip (19)
Diaz (20)
DJamer (18)
JO (10)
This was the most indefensible use of resources on the season and a oscar hater's delight. Olynyk completely destroyed the post players and JO might've been an effective response if he'd been used from the start. But they all sucked, the whole group combined for 10 points and 12 rebounds so I'm not sure that oscar really could've done much as he was grasping and Rodney's 4 points had more to do with our loss as the bigs.
Texas Southern:
Gip (26)
Shane (36)
JO (10)
Diaz (6)
DJamer (6)
I went back and forth on whether to include Shane's minutes as part of the bigs here. oscar clearly values Shane's guard skills over his practically non-existent. He basically played Nino's minutes, then also played his normal minutes at the 3. This was also the best game of his career so it is an outlier both in opportunity and production. I mean Shane even rebounded! I kind of get what Nino brings (Energy/Rebounding) but at the four what does Shane bring?..... mobility away from the basket? Passing? Energy?. This will be the only time you will hear me associate Shane with "energy" evenly indirectly but I am having a hard time making a connection between he and Nino other than "size." oscar does not like having two non-Nino bigs in to start the game. I am not sure why that is, and I could be forcing a connection, but the evidence says that he will not start Gip and JO/Diaz/DJamer alongside each other under any circumstance (although Diaz/JO started both the exhibitions). There is ample evidence for this and it continues with Florida.
Florida:
Gip (18)
Shane (24)
JO (18)
Nino (17)
DJamer (3)
JO was dominant for large stretches, Gip and Nino played solid if unremarkable minutes against two very good posts in Patric Young and Erick Murphy. Shane did Shane things and Diaz and DJamer were absent. Shane was again slotted in the "Nino role" even though Nino was available and played significant minutes. A combination of Shane's career night against Texas Southern and Nino's injury probably conspired to give Shane the nod. Compared with where we started at the beginning of the year, (roughly even minutes for Diaz/JO) and where we were in our darkest days against Michigan (roughly even minutes for every big) and Gonzaga (20 minutes for Diaz) I believe the rotations are beginning to take shape and they are encouraging. But oscar philosophically seems wedded to an undersized tweener getting significant minutes starting in the post and with this lineup this is indefensible. It is a complete misallocation of resources in service of I'm not really sure. Given the constraint, I think oscar is doing about as best he can, but why does he feel the need to tie a hand behind his own back?
This leads us to the logical contortions that oscar went through last night:
Starters vs. UMKC
PG- Shane Southwell
G- Will Spradling
G- Rodney McGruder
F- Thomas Gipson (24)
F- Nino Williams (32)
Bench
JO (12)
Diaz (3)
DJamer (4)
Brucecuses- Playing Shane a better passer (the worst non-big ballhandler) at the point is better than playing Will, Tay is not suited out, Angel DNP, Michael Orris sucks, I can't play two bigs at the same time.
Perhaps the most lollable lineup of the year was in for a few minutes last night too:
G- Omari
G- Sprads
F- Shane
F- DJamer
C- Diaz
Conclusions:
There are 3 main problems that I want to highlight. They are obviously interrelated. The minutes must be filled and it is a zero-sum proposition, someone must take from the pool while someone else must go without. Minutes are precious things and they should be scarce for the weak and plentiful for the strong. Basketball is a cruel world. oscar has spent many of these precious minutes this year poorly in my opinion and while those minutes can not be recovered, they can be spent differently going forward.
The JO Problem
JO showed against Florida what makes him so dangerous, which makes his spotty opportunities this year even more frustrating. If the premise is that oscar has given Diaz so many minutes because he is trying to develop him (any arguments that he is good enough to be on the court in the proportions that he has been thus far will be immediately dismissed) then JO is as damning a counter as exists. The problem is two fold though because the development of Diaz has been terrible too. Diaz is still so lost he cannot set a screen on offense or correctly position himself or protect the rim on defense.
JO is capable of being an enormous asset even if his offense is substandard, but he is playing 2 more mpg than Adrian Diaz and 3 fewer than Nino Williams and 7 fewer than Thomas Gipson. I don't understand it. Even if you think starts are irrelevant, the minutes make no sense. JO has some responsibility for the many times he has played poorly, but oscar has mismanaged the allocation of minutes so as to further limit JO's development.
The Nino Problem
I do not begrudge oscar his Nino love. Every coach has a weakness. There are always players that coaches will play with almost no regard to their worth. But this is love affair is without any sense of proportion or restraint. It is one thing to have a side piece, it is another to bring your lover to the dinner table. Nino does not get to the line, he does not shoot well, he cannot protect the rim, he does not handle or pass the ball particularly well. He is an average rebounder, he hustles, he can set a screen and he plays decent defense. The fact that he has started every game he has been healthy and played more minutes than JO is completely insane. I do not get it. But the worst part is that oscar seems to want to slot in Shane when JO is unavailable. Shane has gotten better, Shane offers some things, but Shane and Nino are in no way interchangeable. That much became clear when Shane played some point last night. oscar seems committed to playing smaller come hell or high water, and even when both show up he will still only throw one post out there. I don't understand it.
The DJamer Problem
I think DJamer is better than Nino. I have reasons to believe this, both statistical and with my own eyes, but it is really that simple. He rebounds better. He can finish better. He plays better post defense. He gets to the line more. He is not as fast, he can not play players away from the hoop as well as Nino and he will not get as many floor burns, but I don't get what I'm missing. If you just swapped roles DJamer for Nino, I'd be so much happier. It would still be a travesty for JO, but at least DJamer would be producing. Someone needs to stage an intervention with oscar.
