http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8790421/making-picks-bcs-other-new-year-bowl-games-ncfOregon Ducks versus Kansas State Wildcats
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 3)
Oregon is favored by 9 points
Oregon and Kansas State are championship-caliber organizations that get our business on a regular basis. The Ducks are talented enough to deserve the favorite's mantle and well-coached enough to blunt one of the Wildcats' regular advantages. Only seven teams have vanquished Chip Kelly, but it is striking just how well this underdog matches up in its attempt to become the eighth.
Oregon's offense doesn't have many weaknesses, but the ones it does have are as follows: a propensity for fumbling, a tendency to allow tackles for loss, a habit of accruing penalties and an inability to hit long pass plays. Kansas State seems perfectly suited to exploit what few edges Oregon makes available, as the Wildcats cause and collect fumbles, rack up tackles behind the line, accumulate virtually no penalties themselves, and deny cheap scores on long plays.
This Oregon defense is the best Kelly has had, but the Ducks do consistently allow long, methodical multiplay rushing drives and rely quite heavily on their NCAA-leading number of takeaways. Kansas State is perfectly suited to craft the kind of possessions Oregon permits, and the Wildcats boast sublime ball security.
Until last year, the knock on Oregon was that it couldn't beat a physical, downhill team, couldn't win a big game away from Autzen and couldn't conquer the postseason. Wins over Stanford on the Farm and Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl slew those demons, but it's still worth noting that a Fiesta date with Collin Klein and the Wildcats profiles much like Kelly's past defeats.
We won't deny that the favorite is the better team in a vacuum, but the Wildcats match up quite well and field the nation's best special teams to boot. Giving this many points is a generous bonus in a toss-up game between two of the nation's best that we think could be lower-scoring than most project.
The pick: Kansas State 31, Oregon 28