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Author Topic: Week 7 Predicto Thread  (Read 2961 times)

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Offline mocat

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Week 7 Predicto Thread
« on: October 11, 2012, 02:13:04 PM »
It's no CHIRP/ORCHID, but I have my own little system.
It does not take into account previous wins/losses.
It does not take into account home/away team.
It does not take into account SOS
It is predominately based on YPP, PPP, and TO%
I only have data for all Big 12 teams, and all teams currently in the Coach's Top 25.
So therefore only Big 12 teams and Top 25 teams playing each other are in this predicto.
Welp here goes! :D

Texas 30
Oklahoma 32

Oklahoma State 42
Kansas 25

West Virginia 33
Texas Tech 37

Baylor 31
TCU 35

Stanford 19
Notre Dame 26

South Carolina 24
LSU 22

Texas A&M 41
Louisiana Tech 33

and finally....

Kansas State 31
Iowa State 21


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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2012, 02:17:33 PM »
My system, where I just casually watch football on Saturday and make uninformed decisions, says the winners are as follows:

Oklahoma, close.

Oklahoma State, blowout.

West Virginia, very close.

Baylor, blowout.

Stanford, close.

South Carolina, close.

Texas A&M, very close.

Kansas State, blowout.

This system takes into account previous wins/losses, home/away team, and SOS. It does not take into account YPP, PPP, or TO%.
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Offline MixBerryCrunch

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2012, 02:18:44 PM »
Quote from: mocat on October 11, 2012, 02:13:04 PM
It's no CHIRP/ORCHID, but I have my own little system.
It does not take into account previous wins/losses.
It does not take into account home/away team.
It does not take into account SOS
It is predominately based on YPP, PPP, and TO%
I only have data for all Big 12 teams, and all teams currently in the Coach's Top 25.
So therefore only Big 12 teams and Top 25 teams playing each other are in this predicto.
Welp here goes! :D

Texas 30
Oklahoma 32

Oklahoma State 42
Kansas 25

West Virginia 33
Texas Tech 37

Baylor 31
TCU 35

Stanford 19
Notre Dame 26

South Carolina 24
LSU 22

Texas A&M 41
Louisiana Tech 33

and finally....

Kansas State 31
Iowa State 21

 :sdeek:
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Offline GoodForAnother

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2012, 02:21:15 PM »
Horns
Cowboys
Raiders
Bears
Trees
Cocks
Whatever Louisiana Tech is
EMAW
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Offline mocat

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2012, 02:21:36 PM »
Quote from: MixBerryCrunch on October 11, 2012, 02:18:44 PM
Quote from: mocat on October 11, 2012, 02:13:04 PM

West Virginia 33
Texas Tech 37

Baylor 31
TCU 35

:sdeek:

1. Guess which Big 12 team has the best Passing Defense numbers right now?

2. Yeah, hard to factor a QB injury into the numbers. Oh well, they'll work themselves out as the season progresses.
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Offline Dr Rick Daris

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2012, 02:24:32 PM »
this mocat system is great!  :emawkid:
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2012, 02:24:45 PM »
How does your system rank the top 25, mocat?
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Offline mocat

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2012, 02:32:52 PM »
Quote from: Nuts Kicked on October 11, 2012, 02:24:45 PM
How does your system rank the top 25, mocat?

1. Alabama
2. Kansas State
3. Notre Dame
4. Florida State
5. Mississippi State
6. South Carolina
7. Florida
8. Rutgers
9. Oregon
10. West Virginia
11. Louisiana Tech
12. Cincinnati
13. LSU
14. Oregon State
15. Texas
16. Louisville
17. Texas A&M
18. Texas Tech
19. TCU
20. USC
21. Boise State
22. Stanford
23. Georgia
24. Iowa State
25. Baylor
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2012, 02:33:54 PM »
Quote from: mocat on October 11, 2012, 02:32:52 PM
Quote from: Nuts Kicked on October 11, 2012, 02:24:45 PM
How does your system rank the top 25, mocat?

1. Alabama
2. Kansas State
3. Notre Dame
4. Florida State
5. Mississippi State
6. South Carolina
7. Florida
8. Rutgers
9. Oregon
10. West Virginia
11. Louisiana Tech
12. Cincinnati
13. LSU
14. Oregon State
15. Texas
16. Louisville
17. Texas A&M
18. Texas Tech
19. TCU
20. USC
21. Boise State
22. Stanford
23. Georgia
24. Iowa State
25. Baylor

Looks good.
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Offline SabiNation

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2012, 02:41:41 PM »
No Oklahoma!   :horrorsurprise:
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Offline mocat

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2012, 02:44:09 PM »
Top 5 mocat Offensive Efficiency Rating

1. West Virginia 1.41
2. Kansas State 1.37
3. Texas 1.33
4. Alabama 1.25
5. Louisiana Tech 1.25

Top 5 mocat Defensive Efficiency Rating
1. Alabama 0.64
2. LSU 0.80
3. Notre Dame 0.83
4. Rutgers 0.85
5. Florida State 0.86
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Offline mocat

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2012, 02:44:49 PM »
Quote from: SabiNation on October 11, 2012, 02:41:41 PM
No Oklahoma!   :horrorsurprise:

They just missed the cut. #26, 0.02 points behind Baylor.
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Offline SabiNation

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2012, 02:46:00 PM »
Quote from: mocat on October 11, 2012, 02:44:49 PM
Quote from: SabiNation on October 11, 2012, 02:41:41 PM
No Oklahoma!   :horrorsurprise:

They just missed the cut. #26, 0.02 points behind Baylor.

Tough break for LandThieves!
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Offline DQ12

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2012, 02:46:10 PM »
STRAIGHT TO THE BOTTOM

 :ksu:
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Offline slobber

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2012, 02:47:17 PM »
47-18
Gonna win 'em all.
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2012, 02:48:10 PM »
Quote from: mocat on October 11, 2012, 02:44:49 PM
Quote from: SabiNation on October 11, 2012, 02:41:41 PM
No Oklahoma!   :horrorsurprise:

They just missed the cut. #26, 0.02 points behind Baylor.

It seems a little strange that #26 is better than #15 on a neutral field. There must not be much separation at the bottom of the rankings. It's hard to criticize a system that nails the top as well as yours does, though.
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Offline kslim

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2012, 02:52:08 PM »
Quote from: mocat on October 11, 2012, 02:44:49 PM
Quote from: SabiNation on October 11, 2012, 02:41:41 PM
No Oklahoma!   :horrorsurprise:

They just missed the cut. #26, 0.02 points behind Baylor.

pretty strong 1 loss fsu i see
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Offline yoga-like_abana

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2012, 03:03:50 PM »
My prediction is that Kleinsdale will run all over those idiots out wandering around, giddyup!
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Offline mocat

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2012, 03:06:06 PM »
Quote from: kslimlb3 on October 11, 2012, 02:52:08 PM
Quote from: mocat on October 11, 2012, 02:44:49 PM
Quote from: SabiNation on October 11, 2012, 02:41:41 PM
No Oklahoma!   :horrorsurprise:

They just missed the cut. #26, 0.02 points behind Baylor.

pretty strong 1 loss fsu i see

Quote from: mocat on October 11, 2012, 02:13:04 PM
It does not take into account previous wins/losses.
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Offline GoodForAnother

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2012, 03:10:02 PM »
Quote from: yoga-like_abana on October 11, 2012, 03:03:50 PM
My prediction is that Kleinsdale will run all over those idiots out wandering around, giddyup!


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Offline mocat

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2012, 03:14:07 PM »
Quote from: Nuts Kicked on October 11, 2012, 02:48:10 PM
Quote from: mocat on October 11, 2012, 02:44:49 PM
Quote from: SabiNation on October 11, 2012, 02:41:41 PM
No Oklahoma!   :horrorsurprise:

They just missed the cut. #26, 0.02 points behind Baylor.

It seems a little strange that #26 is better than #15 on a neutral field. There must not be much separation at the bottom of the rankings. It's hard to criticize a system that nails the top as well as yours does, though.

I agree, and comparing the numbers, they are fairly close. Hence the 2 point victory. It came down to the matchup of

UT OFF 0.65 PPP vs OU DEF 0.25 PPP
vs
OU OFF 0.53 PPP vs UT DEF 0.40 PPP

Basically the mocat system says that though UT has overall a slightly better rating than OU, OU's defensive advantage is greater than UT's offensive advantage when they match up against each other.
The reason UT is ranked higher than OU in the rankings is OU does not take care of the ball quite as well. But this was not a huge factor in a game with limited plays (68 for UT and 69 for OU)
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Offline kstate4life

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2012, 03:16:09 PM »
Quote from: MixBerryCrunch on October 11, 2012, 02:18:44 PM
Quote from: mocat on October 11, 2012, 02:13:04 PM
It's no CHIRP/ORCHID, but I have my own little system.
It does not take into account previous wins/losses.
It does not take into account home/away team.
It does not take into account SOS
It is predominately based on YPP, PPP, and TO%
I only have data for all Big 12 teams, and all teams currently in the Coach's Top 25.
So therefore only Big 12 teams and Top 25 teams playing each other are in this predicto.
Welp here goes! :D

Texas 30
Oklahoma 32

Oklahoma State 42
Kansas 25

West Virginia 33
Texas Tech 37

Baylor 31
TCU 35

Stanford 19
Notre Dame 26

South Carolina 24
LSU 22

Texas A&M 41
Louisiana Tech 33

and finally....

Kansas State 31
Iowa State 21

 :sdeek:

We definitely do NOT want WV to lose to TTech this week... see OU last year.
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Offline doom

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2012, 03:19:56 PM »
Quote from: kstate4life on October 11, 2012, 03:16:09 PM
Quote from: MixBerryCrunch on October 11, 2012, 02:18:44 PM
Quote from: mocat on October 11, 2012, 02:13:04 PM
It's no CHIRP/ORCHID, but I have my own little system.
It does not take into account previous wins/losses.
It does not take into account home/away team.
It does not take into account SOS
It is predominately based on YPP, PPP, and TO%
I only have data for all Big 12 teams, and all teams currently in the Coach's Top 25.
So therefore only Big 12 teams and Top 25 teams playing each other are in this predicto.
Welp here goes! :D

Texas 30
Oklahoma 32

Oklahoma State 42
Kansas 25

West Virginia 33
Texas Tech 37

Baylor 31
TCU 35

Stanford 19
Notre Dame 26

South Carolina 24
LSU 22

Texas A&M 41
Louisiana Tech 33

and finally....

Kansas State 31
Iowa State 21

 :sdeek:

We definitely do NOT want WV to lose to TTech this week... see OU last year.

WVU is no 2011 OU. 
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2012, 03:20:38 PM »
I think we will beat WVU regardless of what happens this week, but I would rather beat them when they are still in the top 5. Tech will be a tough game for them, though.
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Offline mocat

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Re: Week 7 Predicto Thread
« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2012, 03:33:03 PM »
I adjusted the predictor formula to be slightly closer to the rankings formula. It did not affect any outcomes, but the games got a little closer and slightly lower-scoring.

Texas 30
Oklahoma 31

Oklahoma State 40
Kansas 24

West Virginia 32
Texas Tech 35

Baylor 29
TCU 32

Stanford 17
Notre Dame 24

South Carolina 23
LSU 20

Texas A&M 39
Louisiana Tech 32

and finally...

Kansas State 30
Iowa State 19
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