_FANalysis from KU: Historic Game of Offensive Efficiency

[kso_FAN]

http://goEMAW.com/blog/?p=2389

[SdK]

Thank you _FAN. You are a treasure.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Good stuff, bro. 

We are hitting that time of year where the Scheme Doctor has given opposing DC's entirely too many sets that we've had success in to have to prep for.

 

[MixBerryCrunch]

Oklahoma has a very good defense. The best we'll see all year.

[Perry]

Oklahoma has a very good defense. The best we'll see all year.

Texas seems to have a better line, though.

Love getting a weekly dose of HFBIQ from _Fan, thanks for doing these 

[ManBearPig]

Wow. we really are blessed to have _Fan around.

[ednksu]

"KU also did a good job of holding onto the ball to keep it away from K-State."
~ I don't see how you can make this claim at all.  5 TOs in multiple ways, in multiple phases of the game is not taking care of the ball.


"More significant is that K-State did not score a non-offensive touchdown on the afternoon and only had possession of the football for 23 minutes."
~you correctly explain the offensive output by negating the usual big play outlier talking point, I wish you had added something like that here.  We had one special teams play which should have been a TD and a few very good defensive plays which resulted in shot fields.  I kinda feel like your position here negates the good day we had on special teams and defense in favor of highlighting offense stats. 



Fan as always, very well done, very thought provoking.  I look forward to reading it again in K-Stated.

[SdK]

Fan as always, very well done, very thought provoking.  I look forward to reading it again in K-Stated.

 

[kso_FAN]

"KU also did a good job of holding onto the ball to keep it away from K-State."
~ I don't see how you can make this claim at all.  5 TOs in multiple ways, in multiple phases of the game is not taking care of the ball.


"More significant is that K-State did not score a non-offensive touchdown on the afternoon and only had possession of the football for 23 minutes."
~you correctly explain the offensive output by negating the usual big play outlier talking point, I wish you had added something like that here.  We had one special teams play which should have been a TD and a few very good defensive plays which resulted in shot fields.  I kinda feel like your position here negates the good day we had on special teams and defense in favor of highlighting offense stats. 



Fan as always, very well done, very thought provoking.  I look forward to reading it again in K-Stated.

Holding on to the ball simply dealt with time of possession, not turnover margin, etc.

Also, by no means did I mean to say that the offensive output wasn't helped by big plays in special teams or on defense. And I readily admit my focus in the majority of my stuff is offense and offensive production.

[ednksu]

Sorry to misinterpret, I've usually seen that with regard to TOs rather than TOP. 

Kinda odd to look at TOP as a marker for KU doing well.  When K-State's offense is humming at the clip you aptly put, its hard to hold onto the ball that long.  I didn't realize the excellent stat of 3 scoring drives in 6 plays.  I knew we had one drive that was 3 plays, I think.  That 3rd quarter was just so awful for KU.  I wonder what was said in those locker rooms to make coming out of the half like that so pivotal.   

[Mixed-Nutz]

Oklahoma has a very good defense. The best we'll see all year.

Texas seems to have a better line, though.

Love getting a weekly dose of HFBIQ from _Fan, thanks for doing these 

Texas Line hasn't played well this year, DTs just don't have the byte yet this year a lot of teams will run all over them. OU has the best defense this year, unless it is truly the year of the CAT.  MOB HARD FELLAS

[ednksu]

Oklahoma has a very good defense. The best we'll see all year.

Texas seems to have a better line, though.

Love getting a weekly dose of HFBIQ from _Fan, thanks for doing these 

Texas Line hasn't played well this year, DTs just don't have the byte yet this year a lot of teams will run all over them. OU has the best defense this year, unless it is truly the year of the CAT.  MOB HARD FELLAS

Some info from a UT poster I know per the WVU game

Texas is falling apart due to consistent multiple failures up the middle. The DTs are being handled one on one right now. With Moore out, none of the DTs are consistently drawing a double team. Because of this it makes it much easier for the offensive guards to get an angle on the MLB and seal him to the inside. The OLBs are getting handled by everyone that blocks them. They aren't stepping up to fill the hole quickly enough and after that, it's off to the races. Wickline and oSu won that matchup easily the week prior and WVU took advantage of it.

Part of this is personnel breakdown but a significant amount of this is on coaching. Here's where I'm going to bag on Manny _iaz, the Texas Defensive coordinator:

Texas blitzed or stunted 26 times vs WVU. Out of those 26 times, the 'Horns lost 7 of the 20 plays, giving up over 10 yards. Here are the yardages of those plays:

30 yards
39 yards TD
17 yards
24 yards
15 yards
22 yards
14 yards

Out of the other 19 blitzes or stunts, Texas only got 3 negative plays. A 3 yard tackle for loss, one holding call, and the forced fumble TD. Texas gave up a grand total of 252 yards of offense and 3 TDs on those 26 plays, for an average 9.7 yards per play.

On plays where the Texas D didn't stunt, WVU only got 208 yards of offense from the 51 plays they ran, for an average of 4.07 yards/play. That's putrid defense in my mind and points to an inability to adjust or Manny's poor scheme, mindless pressure, stunting on run plays and run blitz gaps only to see the run go through the next gap over.


Cliffs': A lot of credit to a disciplined, well-coached WVU team that had to convert four rough ridin' 4th-downs and scored a TD on one of them. Shame on the Texas Defense for poor scheme and worse coaching/conditioning. That wasn't the performance of a REAL defense.

[Trim]

I'll wait for Kellis' take.

[SwiftCat]

Do you happen to have KU's efficiency numbers on hand? They put up yards, but they had a ton of plays to do it.

That really just goes to show how bad KU's defense really is. I didn't think Klein had a particularly good day, but we just absolutely gouged them at the line of scrimmage.

[SwiftCat]

Also, lol to all of the talking heads that say our offense isn't "pretty." I've heard that talking point so much over the last few weeks. Everyone just assumes we are the same offense from last year, while it's very apparent we aren't.

[Mixed-Nutz]

Mike Stoops and Charlie Wies said our offense is incredible and they are like football coaches. 

[slobber]

Awesome.
Curious what our effieciency would have looked like with a td before half and then take off the last drive. I guess that would be about 40 snaps and 64 points. So up until that last drive, the cats would have averaged 1.6 PPP. Did I do that right?

[Rage Against the McKee]

Sorry to misinterpret, I've usually seen that with regard to TOs rather than TOP. 

Kinda odd to look at TOP as a marker for KU doing well.  When K-State's offense is humming at the clip you aptly put, its hard to hold onto the ball that long.  I didn't realize the excellent stat of 3 scoring drives in 6 plays.  I knew we had one drive that was 3 plays, I think.  That 3rd quarter was just so awful for KU.  I wonder what was said in those locker rooms to make coming out of the half like that so pivotal.

TOP is the only thing that kept the game close in the first half, and had KU not committed any of their second half turnovers, they probably would have kept our offense off the field in the second half as well. I thought Weis put together a solid gameplan that his team just couldn't execute.

[8manpick]

Also, lol to all of the talking heads that say our offense isn't "pretty." I've heard that talking point so much over the last few weeks. Everyone just assumes we are the same offense from last year, while it's very apparent we aren't.

This x10000. It comes from media members, opposing message boarders, and a few people here.  I don't get it.  I guess a lot of it is having most of the same skill position guys?

[mocat]

Do you happen to have KU's efficiency numbers on hand? They put up yards, but they had a ton of plays to do it.

KU offense:

Rushing: 49 - 175 (3.6 avg)
Passing: 19 - 32 - 213 (6.7 avg)
Total: 81 - 388 (4.8 avg / 0.20 PPP)

To compare KU's total output to KSU's other opponents this year:

MSU: 77 - 418 (5.4 avg / 0.12 PPP)
UM:   57 - 277 (4.9 avg / 0.23 PPP)
UNT: 68 - 353 (5.2 avg / 0.31 PPP)
OU:  70 - 386 (5.5 avg / 0.27 PPP)

[cvmcat]

K-State = 0.72 PPP
I-State = 0.37 PPP

In order to keep pace with the Cats Saturday, I-State needs to run twice as many plays as we do.  Likely?

Not.

[catzacker]

We do have a good offense.  It's better than last year.  But some things to consider:

 - We have faced one defense this year (OU) and scored 17 points, other than that, we really haven't played anyone with a defense thus far.  We will this saturday.  ISU ranks in the top 30 nationally in Total, Rush, Pass Effeciency and Scoring defense.  Acting like this offense is just going to roll into Ames and drop 30+ on them is stupid.  Christ, Miami doesn't rank in the top 100 nationally in any of those defensive categories. 

 - Further, we haven't faced an offense that is going to put pressure on our offense to score - i.e. force us to pass more which, imo, will lead to less effeciency.    OU's scoring offense is 24th nationally, we still have to face the #1, 2, 5, 6 and 21st ranked scoring offenses. 

In short, it's a long effing road ahead of us. 

[Sandstone Outcropping]

Thank you _FAN. You are a treasure.

[slobber]

We do have a good offense.  It's better than last year.  But some things to consider:

 - We have faced one defense this year (OU) and scored 17 points, other than that, we really haven't played anyone with a defense thus far.  We will this saturday.  ISU ranks in the top 30 nationally in Total, Rush, Pass Effeciency and Scoring defense.  Acting like this offense is just going to roll into Ames and drop 30+ on them is stupid.  Christ, Miami doesn't rank in the top 100 nationally in any of those defensive categories. 

 - Further, we haven't faced an offense that is going to put pressure on our offense to score - i.e. force us to pass more which, imo, will lead to less effeciency.    OU's scoring offense is 24th nationally, we still have to face the #1, 2, 5, 6 and 21st ranked scoring offenses. 

In short, it's a long effing road ahead of us.

This isn't the SEC. The Big 12 has the weakest defenses in the country. Our PPP should go up in conjunction with the number of Big 12 games we play, as it will make the OOC games a smaller part of the sample size.

[kso_FAN]

We do have a good offense.  It's better than last year.  But some things to consider:

 - We have faced one defense this year (OU) and scored 17 points, other than that, we really haven't played anyone with a defense thus far.  We will this saturday.  ISU ranks in the top 30 nationally in Total, Rush, Pass Effeciency and Scoring defense.  Acting like this offense is just going to roll into Ames and drop 30+ on them is stupid.  Christ, Miami doesn't rank in the top 100 nationally in any of those defensive categories. 

 - Further, we haven't faced an offense that is going to put pressure on our offense to score - i.e. force us to pass more which, imo, will lead to less effeciency.    OU's scoring offense is 24th nationally, we still have to face the #1, 2, 5, 6 and 21st ranked scoring offenses. 

In short, it's a long effing road ahead of us. 

Its a fair point to say we haven't played great defenses so far and that we will face better defenses. But its also fair to say a) many of those defense have inflated numbers because of terrible OOC schedules (see Texas Tech) and b) some of our opponents have bad numbers because they played us. With only 5 games in, the numbers are valid enough, but there is still room for some explanation. Honestly, when I look at the rest of our schedule, I don't exactly see a murderer's row of defenses and feel confident our offense will continue to put up points.