Oh-Bama: playing with the numbers

[OregonSmock]

Why does everyone think that they president has something to do with the success or failure of the economy? 

Because he has spent a couple of trillion dollars to try and prop it up?  Maybe it was a waste of money.

The '09 stimulus was ~$800 billion.  Not even close to $2 trillion.  My guess is that you are confused by Republican mythology, and wrongly believe that Obama also signed TARP into law in October of 2008.  That was actually Bush, and most of TARP has been paid back by the big banks.

If you haven't noticed, we have been spending a $trillion dollars more than we have in every "budget" the last 3 years, not to mention the auto bailout. It's actually much, much, more than $2 trillion.

The last price tag I saw for the auto bailout was $25 billion.  The truth is that federal spending has flattened under Obama.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-reality-behind-obama-and-bushs-spending-binge/2012/05/25/gJQAK8ItpU_blog.html

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

Somebody (Obama) is actually going to try to do something about the deficit and you all freak out about job numbers suddenly. You know the Republican response is to cut taxes and go deeper into debt. Also this proves that government spending is linked to economic performance. Look at Europe, where austerity has been the rule of the day and they are back in recession.

If a deal doesn't get done on taxes, the public is going to blame the Republicans for protecting rich people. The Democrats won the election and have the majority of people on their side.

49% of the country is going to blame Obama for killing even more jobs. Republicans don't want to cut revenue, they just don't want to increase taxes. They do want to increase revenue, just not the same way as Obama.

They don't really want to increase revenue.

Of course they do, but through growth, not taxes. It's been done before.

Not really.  What do you think was supposed to happen after the Bush tax cuts?  It was supposed to broaden the tax base, and instead the middle class has shrunk, the rich have got richer, and we have been through the worst recession since the Great Depression.  The old "Reaganomics" ideas are out-dated and simply don't work for anyone outside of the top income brackets.  You guys beat off to Reagan, but the truth is that Reagan tripled national spending from $900 billion to $2.7 trillion over the course of his presidency, and also raised taxes eleven times (after his initial tax cut was too big).  It isn't the 1980's anymore... get some new ideas.

Regan didn't start raising taxes until the country was regularly adding 300,000 plus jobs a month. Government growth and spending has also been tried and it doesn't work. I'll take Regan's plan over Greece's right now.

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

Why does everyone think that they president has something to do with the success or failure of the economy? 

Because he has spent a couple of trillion dollars to try and prop it up?  Maybe it was a waste of money.

The '09 stimulus was ~$800 billion.  Not even close to $2 trillion.  My guess is that you are confused by Republican mythology, and wrongly believe that Obama also signed TARP into law in October of 2008.  That was actually Bush, and most of TARP has been paid back by the big banks.

If you haven't noticed, we have been spending a $trillion dollars more than we have in every "budget" the last 3 years, not to mention the auto bailout. It's actually much, much, more than $2 trillion.

The last price tag I saw for the auto bailout was $25 billion.  The truth is that federal spending has flattened under Obama.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-reality-behind-obama-and-bushs-spending-binge/2012/05/25/gJQAK8ItpU_blog.html

This is pretty funny. You take the worst of Bush, continue it, and call it an improvement.

[OregonSmock]

Somebody (Obama) is actually going to try to do something about the deficit and you all freak out about job numbers suddenly. You know the Republican response is to cut taxes and go deeper into debt. Also this proves that government spending is linked to economic performance. Look at Europe, where austerity has been the rule of the day and they are back in recession.

If a deal doesn't get done on taxes, the public is going to blame the Republicans for protecting rich people. The Democrats won the election and have the majority of people on their side.

49% of the country is going to blame Obama for killing even more jobs. Republicans don't want to cut revenue, they just don't want to increase taxes. They do want to increase revenue, just not the same way as Obama.

They don't really want to increase revenue.

Of course they do, but through growth, not taxes. It's been done before.

Not really.  What do you think was supposed to happen after the Bush tax cuts?  It was supposed to broaden the tax base, and instead the middle class has shrunk, the rich have got richer, and we have been through the worst recession since the Great Depression.  The old "Reaganomics" ideas are out-dated and simply don't work for anyone outside of the top income brackets.  You guys beat off to Reagan, but the truth is that Reagan tripled national spending from $900 billion to $2.7 trillion over the course of his presidency, and also raised taxes eleven times (after his initial tax cut was too big).  It isn't the 1980's anymore... get some new ideas.

Regan didn't start raising taxes until the country was regularly adding 300,000 plus jobs a month. Government growth and spending has also been tried and it doesn't work. I'll take Regan's plan over Greece's right now.

This is why we can't even have a legit political discussion.  Government spending has been used for decades to stimulate the economy.  It has worked time and time again.  It got us out of the Great Depression.  It fueled our economy during World War II.  It helped get us out of the '09 recession.  This premise that spending doesn't stimulate growth is completely wrong.  Consumer spending is what drives the economy.  Consumer demand is what creates and sustains businesses. 

As for Greece, one of their biggest problems is tax evasion.  They have an archaic tax system that hasn't been computerized until just recently, and they have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in tax revenue due to corruption and simple incompetence. 

[OregonSmock]

Why does everyone think that they president has something to do with the success or failure of the economy? 

Because he has spent a couple of trillion dollars to try and prop it up?  Maybe it was a waste of money.

The '09 stimulus was ~$800 billion.  Not even close to $2 trillion.  My guess is that you are confused by Republican mythology, and wrongly believe that Obama also signed TARP into law in October of 2008.  That was actually Bush, and most of TARP has been paid back by the big banks.

If you haven't noticed, we have been spending a $trillion dollars more than we have in every "budget" the last 3 years, not to mention the auto bailout. It's actually much, much, more than $2 trillion.

The last price tag I saw for the auto bailout was $25 billion.  The truth is that federal spending has flattened under Obama.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-reality-behind-obama-and-bushs-spending-binge/2012/05/25/gJQAK8ItpU_blog.html

This is pretty funny. You take the worst of Bush, continue it, and call it an improvement.

This is how it works.  Budget obligations extend beyond the current year.  We will be paying for the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War well beyond 2012. 

[p1k3]

This is why we can't even have a legit political discussion.  Government spending has been used for decades to stimulate the economy.  It has worked time and time again.  It got us out of the Great Depression.  It fueled our economy during World War II.  It helped get us out of the '09 recession.  This premise that spending doesn't stimulate growth is completely wrong.  Consumer spending is what drives the economy.  Consumer demand is what creates and sustains businesses. 

As for Greece, one of their biggest problems is tax evasion.  They have an archaic tax system that hasn't been computerized until just recently, and they have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in tax revenue due to corruption and simple incompetence.

Pro tip: We're not out of the recession. Once government spending gets 50 million people off food stamps and gets the employment rate below 15% then you may have an argument


And yeah, Greece just isn't taxing themselves enough 

[p1k3]

Greece's debt to GDP is ~150%. Damn that archaic tax system!

[OregonSmock]

This is why we can't even have a legit political discussion.  Government spending has been used for decades to stimulate the economy.  It has worked time and time again.  It got us out of the Great Depression.  It fueled our economy during World War II.  It helped get us out of the '09 recession.  This premise that spending doesn't stimulate growth is completely wrong.  Consumer spending is what drives the economy.  Consumer demand is what creates and sustains businesses. 

As for Greece, one of their biggest problems is tax evasion.  They have an archaic tax system that hasn't been computerized until just recently, and they have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in tax revenue due to corruption and simple incompetence.

Pro tip: We're not out of the recession. Once government spending gets 50 million people off food stamps and gets the employment rate below 15% then you may have an argument


And yeah, Greece just isn't taxing themselves enough 

We are out of the worst of the recession.  Moody's predicts that the economy will add 12 million new jobs over the next four to five years.  Also, the unemployment rate is well below 15%.  I believe the actual number right now is 7.9%.  Republicans and others pretend like the discrepancy between the real unemployment rate and the calculated unemployment rate is some new phenomenon.  The real unemployment rate is always higher than the calculated rate.  When someone gets discouraged and quits looking for work, they drop out of the labor force altogether.  This isn't some new concept that only applies to Obama.

As for Greece, I never once even hinted that I think tax rates are their problem.  An inefficient tax system and an inability to collect their taxes has been a big problem, though.  Corruption in places like Greece is even worse than it is here.  This goes back to my point that we can't even have a legit discussion about these things, because we can't agree to simple facts.  You basically just tried to change the entire premise of my argument in order to somehow win a message board debate.

[OregonSmock]

Greece's debt to GDP is ~150%. Damn that archaic tax system!

Japan's debt to GDP is 229.77%.

[michigancat]

the pit had been surprisingly reasonable until Beams came back.

[p1k3]

This is why we can't even have a legit political discussion.  Government spending has been used for decades to stimulate the economy.  It has worked time and time again.  It got us out of the Great Depression.  It fueled our economy during World War II.  It helped get us out of the '09 recession.  This premise that spending doesn't stimulate growth is completely wrong.  Consumer spending is what drives the economy.  Consumer demand is what creates and sustains businesses. 

As for Greece, one of their biggest problems is tax evasion.  They have an archaic tax system that hasn't been computerized until just recently, and they have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in tax revenue due to corruption and simple incompetence.

Pro tip: We're not out of the recession. Once government spending gets 50 million people off food stamps and gets the employment rate below 15% then you may have an argument


And yeah, Greece just isn't taxing themselves enough 

We are out of the worst of the recession.  Moody's predicts that the economy will add 12 million new jobs over the next four to five years.  Also, the unemployment rate is well below 15%.  I believe the actual number right now is 7.9%.  Republicans and others pretend like the discrepancy between the real unemployment rate and the calculated unemployment rate is some new phenomenon.  The real unemployment rate is always higher than the calculated rate.  When someone gets discouraged and quits looking for work, they drop out of the labor force altogether.  This isn't some new concept that only applies to Obama.

As for Greece, I never once even hinted that I think tax rates are their problem.  An inefficient tax system and an inability to collect their taxes has been a big problem, though.  Corruption in places like Greece is even worse than it is here.  This goes back to my point that we can't even have a legit discussion about these things, because we can't agree to simple facts.  You basically just tried to change the entire premise of my argument in order to somehow win a message board debate.

Yeah I'm aware about the employment rate. The government reports 7.9 because they're lying. Just because people "drop out of the labor force" doesn't mean it's right or good and should go un noticed. Odd you talk about agreeing to facts when you can't even see through the BS your own government is feeding you

Back to Greece. You're arguing that government spending is key to our prosperity, yet the entire continent of Europe has been doing this and they are falling apart, with Greece being the best example. Corruption seems to be a convenient excuse instead of blaming the true underlying problem.

[p1k3]

Greece's debt to GDP is ~150%. Damn that archaic tax system!

Japan's debt to GDP is 229.77%.

What's your point? That's obviously unsustainable, but at least japan has bridges to no where. Not to mention the Yen is worthless. The Nikkei has lost like 80% in 20 years

[Rage Against the McKee]

This is why we can't even have a legit political discussion.  Government spending has been used for decades to stimulate the economy.  It has worked time and time again.  It got us out of the Great Depression.  It fueled our economy during World War II.  It helped get us out of the '09 recession.  This premise that spending doesn't stimulate growth is completely wrong.  Consumer spending is what drives the economy.  Consumer demand is what creates and sustains businesses. 

As for Greece, one of their biggest problems is tax evasion.  They have an archaic tax system that hasn't been computerized until just recently, and they have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in tax revenue due to corruption and simple incompetence.

Pro tip: We're not out of the recession. Once government spending gets 50 million people off food stamps and gets the employment rate below 15% then you may have an argument


And yeah, Greece just isn't taxing themselves enough 

We are out of the worst of the recession.  Moody's predicts that the economy will add 12 million new jobs over the next four to five years.  Also, the unemployment rate is well below 15%.  I believe the actual number right now is 7.9%.  Republicans and others pretend like the discrepancy between the real unemployment rate and the calculated unemployment rate is some new phenomenon.  The real unemployment rate is always higher than the calculated rate.  When someone gets discouraged and quits looking for work, they drop out of the labor force altogether.  This isn't some new concept that only applies to Obama.

As for Greece, I never once even hinted that I think tax rates are their problem.  An inefficient tax system and an inability to collect their taxes has been a big problem, though.  Corruption in places like Greece is even worse than it is here.  This goes back to my point that we can't even have a legit discussion about these things, because we can't agree to simple facts.  You basically just tried to change the entire premise of my argument in order to somehow win a message board debate.

Yeah I'm aware about the employment rate. The government reports 7.9 because they're lying. Just because people "drop out of the labor force" doesn't mean it's right or good and should go un noticed. Odd you talk about agreeing to facts when you can't even see through the BS your own government is feeding you

Back to Greece. You're arguing that government spending is key to our prosperity, yet the entire continent of Europe has been doing this and they are falling apart, with Greece being the best example. Corruption seems to be a convenient excuse instead of blaming the true underlying problem.

I have always viewed the unemployment rate as a measure of just how difficult it is to find work. Under that metric, why count people who aren't looking? It's not like they are going to get a job that I apply for.

[OregonSmock]

This is why we can't even have a legit political discussion.  Government spending has been used for decades to stimulate the economy.  It has worked time and time again.  It got us out of the Great Depression.  It fueled our economy during World War II.  It helped get us out of the '09 recession.  This premise that spending doesn't stimulate growth is completely wrong.  Consumer spending is what drives the economy.  Consumer demand is what creates and sustains businesses. 

As for Greece, one of their biggest problems is tax evasion.  They have an archaic tax system that hasn't been computerized until just recently, and they have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in tax revenue due to corruption and simple incompetence.

Pro tip: We're not out of the recession. Once government spending gets 50 million people off food stamps and gets the employment rate below 15% then you may have an argument


And yeah, Greece just isn't taxing themselves enough 

We are out of the worst of the recession.  Moody's predicts that the economy will add 12 million new jobs over the next four to five years.  Also, the unemployment rate is well below 15%.  I believe the actual number right now is 7.9%.  Republicans and others pretend like the discrepancy between the real unemployment rate and the calculated unemployment rate is some new phenomenon.  The real unemployment rate is always higher than the calculated rate.  When someone gets discouraged and quits looking for work, they drop out of the labor force altogether.  This isn't some new concept that only applies to Obama.

As for Greece, I never once even hinted that I think tax rates are their problem.  An inefficient tax system and an inability to collect their taxes has been a big problem, though.  Corruption in places like Greece is even worse than it is here.  This goes back to my point that we can't even have a legit discussion about these things, because we can't agree to simple facts.  You basically just tried to change the entire premise of my argument in order to somehow win a message board debate.

Yeah I'm aware about the employment rate. The government reports 7.9 because they're lying. Just because people "drop out of the labor force" doesn't mean it's right or good and should go un noticed. Odd you talk about agreeing to facts when you can't even see through the BS your own government is feeding you

Back to Greece. You're arguing that government spending is key to our prosperity, yet the entire continent of Europe has been doing this and they are falling apart, with Greece being the best example. Corruption seems to be a convenient excuse instead of blaming the true underlying problem.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is not "lying."  The unemployment rate is simply (unemployed/unemployed + employed) or (unemployed/labor force).  People can leave the labor force for various reasons, whether it's a mom who wants to stay at home and raise her kids, or a businessman who's ready to retire at the age of 57.  People also get discouraged looking for work and drop out of the labor force.  There is no bias in how the number is calculated.  If you can provide a legitimate argument for how the government distorts this number, I'd be willing to listen, but until then, it's just a bunch of nonsense. 

And again, I have not once in this thread argued that government spending is "the key to our prosperity."  I have pointed to times when government spending has helped stimulate economic growth, but that's it.  Consumer spending and consumer demand are the foundation of any economy. 

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

Somebody (Obama) is actually going to try to do something about the deficit and you all freak out about job numbers suddenly. You know the Republican response is to cut taxes and go deeper into debt. Also this proves that government spending is linked to economic performance. Look at Europe, where austerity has been the rule of the day and they are back in recession.

If a deal doesn't get done on taxes, the public is going to blame the Republicans for protecting rich people. The Democrats won the election and have the majority of people on their side.

49% of the country is going to blame Obama for killing even more jobs. Republicans don't want to cut revenue, they just don't want to increase taxes. They do want to increase revenue, just not the same way as Obama.

They don't really want to increase revenue.

Of course they do, but through growth, not taxes. It's been done before.

Not really.  What do you think was supposed to happen after the Bush tax cuts?  It was supposed to broaden the tax base, and instead the middle class has shrunk, the rich have got richer, and we have been through the worst recession since the Great Depression.  The old "Reaganomics" ideas are out-dated and simply don't work for anyone outside of the top income brackets.  You guys beat off to Reagan, but the truth is that Reagan tripled national spending from $900 billion to $2.7 trillion over the course of his presidency, and also raised taxes eleven times (after his initial tax cut was too big).  It isn't the 1980's anymore... get some new ideas.

Regan didn't start raising taxes until the country was regularly adding 300,000 plus jobs a month. Government growth and spending has also been tried and it doesn't work. I'll take Regan's plan over Greece's right now.

This is why we can't even have a legit political discussion.  Government spending has been used for decades to stimulate the economy.  It has worked time and time again.  It got us out of the Great Depression.  It fueled our economy during World War II.  It helped get us out of the '09 recession.  This premise that spending doesn't stimulate growth is completely wrong.  Consumer spending is what drives the economy.  Consumer demand is what creates and sustains businesses. 

As for Greece, one of their biggest problems is tax evasion.  They have an archaic tax system that hasn't been computerized until just recently, and they have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in tax revenue due to corruption and simple incompetence.

You have no credibility. We are not out of the recession and the economic growth is still slowing every year.

If government spending was the key to economic success, Greece would be a powerhouse.

33% percent of Greeks were on government payrolls before the collapse. The top income tax rate has increased to 45 percent. The top corporate tax rate was 24 percent for the financial period from August 2010 to July 2011, with a lower 20 percent rate approved for the period after that. The overall tax burden amounts to about 30 percent of GDP, and government spending has reached a level exceeding 50 percent of GDP. Chronic budget deficits continue, and public debt far exceeds the size of the economy.

[OregonSmock]

1.  We are out of the worst of the recession.  The housing market has stabilized, the DJIA is a full 4,000-5000 points higher than it was in '09, companies are experiencing record profits, the unemployment rate is down, and we've had 30+ straight months of real job growth. 

2.  The United States is not Greece, and I have never once claimed that spending is the only way to economic prosperity.  Government spending can have a stimulative effect on the economy, and so can tax cuts.  The problem we have right now is that ever since the Bush tax cuts and the economic recession, we've been increasing spending and losing revenue.  We need to decrease spending where we can and raise revenue where we can.  I'm actually pretty confident that Congress will work together and compromise on a debt deal within the coming months.

[sys]

the pit had been surprisingly reasonable until Beams came back.

people get tired of posting to walls.  beems came in hot, but he's not going to last any longer than anyone else has.

[Ghost of Stan Parrish]

Unemployment down another tick this month.  Super annoying that Oh-Bama is still messing with the numbers after the election.  He's already starting his re-election machine up, no doubt.

 

[michigancat]

Unemployment down another tick this month.  Super annoying that Oh-Bama is still messing with the numbers after the election.  He's already starting his re-election machine up, no doubt.

 

yeah, but what about people that left the workforce??? what are the true numbers??? :armscrossed:

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

Unemployment down another tick this month.  Super annoying that Oh-Bama is still messing with the numbers after the election.  He's already starting his re-election machine up, no doubt.

 

yeah, but what about people that left the workforce??? what are the true numbers??? :armscrossed:

Labor Force Participation Rate




Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
2002   66.5   66.8   66.6   66.7   66.7   66.6   66.5   66.6   66.7   66.6   66.4   66.3
2003   66.4   66.4   66.3   66.4   66.4   66.5   66.2   66.1   66.1   66.1   66.1   65.9
2004   66.1   66.0   66.0   65.9   66.0   66.1   66.1   66.0   65.8   65.9   66.0   65.9
2005   65.8   65.9   65.9   66.1   66.1   66.1   66.1   66.2   66.1   66.1   66.0   66.0
2006   66.0   66.1   66.2   66.1   66.1   66.2   66.1   66.2   66.1   66.2   66.3   66.4
2007   66.4   66.3   66.2   65.9   66.0   66.0   66.0   65.8   66.0   65.8   66.0   66.0
2008   66.2   66.0   66.1   65.9   66.1   66.1   66.1   66.1   65.9   66.0   65.8   65.8
2009   65.7   65.8   65.6   65.6   65.7   65.7   65.5   65.4   65.1   65.0   65.0   64.6
2010   64.8   64.9   64.9   65.1   64.9   64.6   64.6   64.7   64.6   64.4   64.5   64.3
2011   64.2   64.2   64.2   64.2   64.2   64.1   64.0   64.1   64.1   64.1   64.0   64.0
2012   63.7   63.9   63.8   63.6   63.8   63.8   63.7   63.5   63.6   63.8   63.6   

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

While looking around the Bureau of Labor statistics, I came across these interesting numbers for comparos.

Month       Year    labor force*     employed*   unemployed*   unemployment rate

November  2012         155,291    143,262    12,029    7.7%

January     2009         154,236    142,187    12,049    7.8%

*in thousands

Only 20,000 fewer people unemployed than 4 years ago. The US population is growing by more than 2 million per year.

http://www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/laus/us/usadj.htm

[Rage Against the McKee]

While looking around the Bureau of Labor statistics, I came across these interesting numbers for comparos.

Month       Year    labor force*     employed*   unemployed*   unemployment rate

November  2012         155,291    143,262    12,029    7.7%

January     2009         154,236    142,187    12,049    7.8%

*in thousands

Only 20,000 fewer people unemployed than 4 years ago. The US population is growing by more than 2 million per year.

http://www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/laus/us/usadj.htm

It is easier to find a job today than it was four years ago. That is the takeaway from this.

[sonofdaxjones]

Labor participation going to to drop into the 50's?

[ednksu]

Lulz at Beems clown suiting his opponents in this thread.  You know when Beems makes you look like a mouth breathing Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) you should just eject.  Maybe a self ban is in order to wipe the slate clean.

[sonofdaxjones]

Double  at those who just ignore things like the labor participation numbers.

For Obamabots that statistical category is a game changer, because it keeps their guy from looking absolutely abysmal.