Author Topic: How much 3 pt shooting is "too much"? The Fools Gold Debate... (Read 4669 times)

michigancat · « **Reply #25 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:54:41 PM »

Quote from: Skipper44 on February 11, 2015, 02:48:35 PM

Quote from: Steffy08
I think Self is just stating what is obvious to most people: relying so heavily on three point shooting is less likely to result in a national championship than a team that pounds it inside more. It would be different if we were talking about a league championship or a seven-game series. But the NCAA tournament is one and done.
By and large, it is easier to find players and develop players that can shoot the 3 than it is to find guys that can score inside. Not only are those guys hard to find they are also the fastest to leave and Cal appears to be able to get 2 or 3 of the maybe 10 in a recruiting class to come to Kentucky. You really have to be a blue blood to think playing inside-out is the best way to win.

this is a great point. Remember our discussion on the best KSU post players in modern history? They pretty much sucked, and in the Martin/Huggs era, only Beasley and maybe CK were reliable back-to-the basket scorers.

Quality post players are both rare, and I think there is growing evidence that post-up shots aren't terribly effective (see hints of it in this Brad Stevens interview I read a while back):

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/qa-coach-brad-stevens-on-his-surprising-celtics-and-the-new-jordan-crawford/

Quote

I mean, you’re near the top of the league in total post-ups.

And [Brandon] Bass is posting up three times as much as he has in the past. At the end of the day, we have to use all of our strengths.

Analytics folks say the post-up, or at least a post-up shot, is a low-efficiency play. But there’s a way to reconcile that, right?

There are two ways to get inside-out: driving or posting.

In other words: The post-up is more a vehicle for passing and other shots, rather than necessarily for a post-up shot itself?

It’s a vehicle for playing inside-out. That’s right.

Skipper44 · « **Reply #26 on:** February 11, 2015, 03:04:23 PM »

If anything, Bill should have Perry shooting more 3s in anticipation of elite 8 game with KY, Ariz, or VA

Shooter Jones · « **Reply #27 on:** February 11, 2015, 03:18:28 PM »

do you think we can hire Brad Stevens when he gets fired by the Celtics?

MakeItRain · « **Reply #28 on:** February 11, 2015, 03:20:50 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 11, 2015, 02:32:23 PM

Quote from: MakeItRain on February 11, 2015, 02:27:27 PM
Quote from: The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep on February 11, 2015, 02:14:19 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grinnell_System

http://www.cbssports.com/general/writer/gregg-doyel/24249089/not-easy-for-grinnell-gunner-to-score-100plus-till-coach-makes-it-so

http://www.cbssports.com/general/writer/gregg-doyel/24249295/you-never-know-who-the-voice-of-grinnell-college-hoops-is-these-days

I went to a Grinnell game last year , I can't say I have anything good to say about the system. I'm all for coaches doing something that gives them an edge whether traditional or not but it doesn't give an edge, its just a gimmick.

Mixed-Nutz · « **Reply #29 on:** February 11, 2015, 03:22:21 PM »

It is about getting good shots and balance makes that easier. If you team is good at shooting 3s and defense are allowing you to shots good 3s noting wrong with taking 100% 3s. It is just not practical.

MIT stat nerds believe the best offense is shots at the rim and 3s, but that isn't alway practical because of the opposing defense and your teams personnel.

michigancat · « **Reply #30 on:** February 11, 2015, 03:28:28 PM »

Quote from: Mixed-Nutz on February 11, 2015, 03:22:21 PM

It is about getting good shots and balance makes that easier. If you team is good at shooting 3s and defense are allowing you to shots good 3s noting wrong with taking 100% 3s. It is just not practical.

MIT stat nerds believe the best offense is shots at the rim and 3s, but that isn't alway practical because of the opposing defense and your teams personnel.

MIT stat nerds = insult

wetwillie · « **Reply #31 on:** February 11, 2015, 06:19:24 PM »

If we played at a 65 possession pace and let Marcus take 65 threes and he made 40% of them we would have 78 points a game. That sounds like more fun than what we have today.

Sandstone Outcropping · « **Reply #32 on:** February 11, 2015, 08:40:12 PM »

Quote from: wetwillie on February 11, 2015, 06:19:24 PM

If we played at a 65 possession pace and let Marcus take 65 threes and he made 40% of them we would have 78 points a game. That sounds like more fun than what we have today.

basketball should be fun to look at.

TownieCat · « **Reply #33 on:** February 20, 2015, 05:05:52 PM »

Our ideal 3PT rate is between 14-20%. Against P5 teams this year we are 6-3 when we're in that range. Below 14% we are 0-4 and above 20% we are 2-5.

3PT shooting percentage doesn't seem to matter.

michigancat · « **Reply #34 on:** February 20, 2015, 05:10:14 PM »

Quote from: TownieCat on February 20, 2015, 05:05:52 PM

Our ideal 3PT rate is between 14-20%. Against P5 teams this year we are 6-3 when we're in that range. Below 14% we are 0-4 and above 20% we are 2-5.

3PT shooting percentage doesn't seem to matter.

not sure what you're calculating there

TownieCat · « **Reply #35 on:** February 20, 2015, 05:20:18 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on February 20, 2015, 05:10:14 PM

Quote from: TownieCat on February 20, 2015, 05:05:52 PM
Our ideal 3PT rate is between 14-20%. Against P5 teams this year we are 6-3 when we're in that range. Below 14% we are 0-4 and above 20% we are 2-5.

3PT shooting percentage doesn't seem to matter.

not sure what you're calculating there

3PT attempts per game, adjusted for pace. I only included the games vs the P5 teams we've played this year.

Chucking up a bunch of 3s with Marcus and Tre sounds fun, but it's likely not the answer. However, I think playing them together to spread the floor could benefit the offense.

Mr Bread · « **Reply #36 on:** February 20, 2015, 05:25:28 PM »

Quote from: TownieCat on February 20, 2015, 05:20:18 PM

Quote from: michigancat on February 20, 2015, 05:10:14 PM
Quote from: TownieCat on February 20, 2015, 05:05:52 PM
Our ideal 3PT rate is between 14-20%. Against P5 teams this year we are 6-3 when we're in that range. Below 14% we are 0-4 and above 20% we are 2-5.

3PT shooting percentage doesn't seem to matter.

not sure what you're calculating there

3PT attempts per game, adjusted for pace. I only included the games vs the P5 teams we've played this year.

Chucking up a bunch of 3s with Marcus and Tre sounds fun, but it's likely not the answer. However, I think playing them together to spread the floor could benefit the offense.

Who were the 6-3 against? And the other ones too. Home-road-neutral? Your data could be very misleading. Correlation does not imply causation. Go further and calculate the likelihood of a true causal relationship. #chum

michigancat · « **Reply #37 on:** February 20, 2015, 05:31:59 PM »

Quote from: TownieCat on February 20, 2015, 05:20:18 PM

Quote from: michigancat on February 20, 2015, 05:10:14 PM
Quote from: TownieCat on February 20, 2015, 05:05:52 PM
Our ideal 3PT rate is between 14-20%. Against P5 teams this year we are 6-3 when we're in that range. Below 14% we are 0-4 and above 20% we are 2-5.

3PT shooting percentage doesn't seem to matter.

not sure what you're calculating there

3PT attempts per game, adjusted for pace. I only included the games vs the P5 teams we've played this year.

Chucking up a bunch of 3s with Marcus and Tre sounds fun, but it's likely not the answer. However, I think playing them together to spread the floor could benefit the offense.

Yeah we were all talking as a ratio (3FGA/2FGA). Looks like you're calculating as a percentage of total shots.

And Bread's right, you've got basically no evidence of an ideal range (based on what you've presented).

CHONGS · « **Reply #38 on:** February 20, 2015, 05:35:14 PM »

I want to be talking about

(3 points attempted)/(total FGs attempted)

or better yet:

(points acquired by making a 3)/(total points)

CHONGS · « **Reply #39 on:** February 20, 2015, 05:37:06 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on February 20, 2015, 05:31:59 PM

Quote from: TownieCat on February 20, 2015, 05:20:18 PM

Quote from: michigancat on February 20, 2015, 05:10:14 PM
Quote from: TownieCat on February 20, 2015, 05:05:52 PM
Our ideal 3PT rate is between 14-20%. Against P5 teams this year we are 6-3 when we're in that range. Below 14% we are 0-4 and above 20% we are 2-5.

3PT shooting percentage doesn't seem to matter.

not sure what you're calculating there

3PT attempts per game, adjusted for pace. I only included the games vs the P5 teams we've played this year.

Chucking up a bunch of 3s with Marcus and Tre sounds fun, but it's likely not the answer. However, I think playing them together to spread the floor could benefit the offense.

Yeah we were all talking as a ratio (3FGA/2FGA). Looks like you're calculating as a percentage of total shots.

And Bread's right, you've got basically no evidence of an ideal range (based on what you've presented).

no we're talking about 3FGA/(3FGA+2FGA)

TownieCat · « **Reply #40 on:** February 20, 2015, 05:42:12 PM »

The 2 wins with a >20% rate were Purdue and OU at home. Of the 3 losses when we fell in the 14-20% range, 2 were against Arizona and Iowa St. I recall playing very well in both of those games, but we just fell short against very good teams.

Obviously there are too many factors in basketball to declare this the cause. But there obviously appears to be a correlation between wins and how many of our possessions end with a 3FGA.

michigancat · « **Reply #41 on:** February 20, 2015, 05:47:02 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on February 20, 2015, 05:37:06 PM

Quote from: michigancat on February 20, 2015, 05:31:59 PM
Quote from: TownieCat on February 20, 2015, 05:20:18 PM

Quote from: michigancat on February 20, 2015, 05:10:14 PM
Quote from: TownieCat on February 20, 2015, 05:05:52 PM
Our ideal 3PT rate is between 14-20%. Against P5 teams this year we are 6-3 when we're in that range. Below 14% we are 0-4 and above 20% we are 2-5.

3PT shooting percentage doesn't seem to matter.

not sure what you're calculating there

3PT attempts per game, adjusted for pace. I only included the games vs the P5 teams we've played this year.

Chucking up a bunch of 3s with Marcus and Tre sounds fun, but it's likely not the answer. However, I think playing them together to spread the floor could benefit the offense.

Yeah we were all talking as a ratio (3FGA/2FGA). Looks like you're calculating as a percentage of total shots.

And Bread's right, you've got basically no evidence of an ideal range (based on what you've presented).
no we're talking about 3FGA/(3FGA+2FGA)

jeez, what am I talking about

michigancat · « **Reply #42 on:** February 20, 2015, 05:48:23 PM »

I mean those numbers were just so insanely low I thought they were being miscalculated or something.

wetwillie · « **Reply #43 on:** February 20, 2015, 06:18:36 PM »

does your 3pt percentage decrease proportionally to each incremental shot after a certain amount of attempts?

kso_FAN · « **Reply #44 on:** February 20, 2015, 06:56:06 PM »

I think we're about right with this team. It's not like oscar wants this low of 3PA%, his teams typically shoot a much higher rate than this year's. We do suck at 2s and defending 2s, but I'm not sure that chucking 35% 3PA would be beneficial to this team.

Mixed-Nutz · « **Reply #45 on:** February 20, 2015, 07:01:11 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 20, 2015, 06:56:06 PM

I think we're about right with this team. It's not like oscar wants this low of 3PA%, his teams typically shoot a much higher rate than this year's. We do suck at 2s and defending 2s, but I'm not sure that chucking 35% 3PA would be beneficial to this team.

One big question is if Nino's long 2s should be 3s.

TownieCat · « **Reply #46 on:** February 20, 2015, 08:30:11 PM »

Quote from: Mixed-Nutz on February 20, 2015, 07:01:11 PM

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 20, 2015, 06:56:06 PM
I think we're about right with this team. It's not like oscar wants this low of 3PA%, his teams typically shoot a much higher rate than this year's. We do suck at 2s and defending 2s, but I'm not sure that chucking 35% 3PA would be beneficial to this team.
One big question is if Nino's long 2s should be 3s.

Since Nino is such an effective long 2FG shooter and has hit 3/6 from 3FG it leads me to believe Nino should attempt more 3s.