...OU got blown out by Tech?

[kougar24]

I wouldn't even consider us competition with ISU at this point, projecting to the end of the season. We'll be battling UT (good to see lack of quality wins) and a bunch of teams from other leagues.

[michigancat]

I wouldn't even consider us competition with ISU at this point, projecting to the end of the season. We'll be battling UT (good to see lack of quality wins) and a bunch of teams from other leagues.

Try to think with your head and not with your heart.

[kso_FAN]

I wouldn't even consider us competition with ISU at this point, projecting to the end of the season. We'll be battling UT (good to see lack of quality wins) and a bunch of teams from other leagues.

Try to think with your head and not with your heart.

Yeah, when you think of us and ISU, think of 07 Tech and us. Or 09 aTm/OSU and us. At least at this point, with 6 games there is still a bunch of basketball to be played.

[kougar24]

I wouldn't even consider us competition with ISU at this point, projecting to the end of the season. We'll be battling UT (good to see lack of quality wins) and a bunch of teams from other leagues.

Try to think with your head and not with your heart.

I know, it's hard though. Bobby Knight, Texas Tech...these things keep popping up. And I don't even know if we deserved to go above Tech on paper in '07 anyway. Maybe my heart has too firm a hold on bubble thought.

[Stevesie60]

Lunardi has us at an 11 seed right now. Obviously, next 3 games will be the determining factor.

[michigancat]

Lunardi has us at an 11 seed right now. Obviously, next 3 games will be the determining factor.

respectfully disagree. 1 win in the three would cement status but 3 losses will definitely not knock us off. The last three are just as important if not more (especially OSU and aTm, which are the only possibilities for "bad" losses). I think 3-3 gets us in no matter what. 2-4 could do it w/ the right combo if wins/losses, but it's much less likely that we'll hit the right combo.

[catzacker]

I think it’s fair to say we’re not battling ISU.  Their RPI is better than ours and projects better than ours.  Their final 6 games they have 3 against teams above them in the standings.  So when you project it out, ISU should finish probably 2 games ahead of KSU (conf position matters because of the games you had to win – or rather the games you didn’t lose - in order to do so)  and with better RPIs and with equal-ish rpi wins.  

We’re battling UT and OSU.  UT only has 2 games against teams ahead of them in the standings, KSU and OSU have 4.  Blah, blah, blah with the a lot of basketball left.  When you project it out, it doesn’t look good for us getting in.  Same for OSU.  

the ou losses are killers.  absolute killers.  I'd throw in the baylor loss at home too.  win 2 of those 3 and we're going to the dance even if we finish 2-4.

[michigancat]

I think it’s fair to say we’re not battling ISU.  Their RPI is better than ours and projects better than ours.  Their final 6 games they have 3 against teams above them in the standings.  So when you project it out, ISU should finish probably 2 games ahead of KSU (conf position matters because of the games you had to win – or rather the games you didn’t lose - in order to do so)  and with better RPIs and with equal-ish rpi wins. 

we're a lot closer than you're trying to let yourself believe. Lunardi has them a 10, and us an 11 (which is really really close). I really don't want to try to decipher your last sentence, but conference finish won't make a difference.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[MakeItRain]

Pretty sure I just addressed this.  As far as our RPI, it makes nary a damn of a difference if OU is 94 or 102 in the RPI.  OUs RPI movement at this point has a scant effect on KSUs RPI.  If you're absolutely sure that the committee gives weight to bad losses tell me the true bubble team with no bad losses.  You are a bubble team because you've lost games you shouldn't have.

You're right that it won't affect our RPI, but the committee doesn't look at our RPI - they only use RPI to compare schedules.They look at records vs. top 50, top 100, and 100+, but don't actually look at what our RPI is when determining whether or not we get in. Two 100+ RPI losses will definitely look a lot worse to the committee than zero.

Yes, that was my point too.

And I agree with MIR's point about quality wins, which we don't have a lot of either (right now), so those bad losses to OU are even worse. Especially to lose to them at home.

Here's a quick breakdown of B12 bubble teams (as it stands today):

ISU:
RPI 1-50         2-4   0.333
RPI 51-100       1-1   0.5
RPI 101-150      4-2   0.667
RPI 151-200      5-0   1.0
RPI 200+         6-0   1.0

KSU:
RPI 1-50      4-5   0.444
RPI 51-100    1-0   1.0
RPI 101-150   1-2   0.333
RPI 151-200   5-0   1.0
RPI 200+      6-0   1.0

UT:
Top 25        0-5   0.0
RPI 1-50      2-7   0.222
RPI 51-100    1-1   0.5
RPI 101-150   3-1   0.75
RPI 151-200   5-0   1.0
RPI 200+      5-0   1.0

I bet if you looked at this for all bubble teams from major conferences they'd all have bad losses.  Like I said if you didnt have bad losses you wouldn't be a bubble team.

[catzacker]

I’m merely stating that team A finishing ahead of team B isn’t the factor (ie. The committee doesn’t say “hey they finished ahead of them so they’re in”, however the games that team A won (or rather the games that team B lost) in order to put team A ahead of team B matter.  

Project ISU and KSU’s record and rpi when the conf season ends….ISU is a lock, KSU is on the bubble.  Therefore, we’re not battling ISU.  

[michigancat]

I bet if you looked at this for all bubble teams from major conferences they'd all have bad losses.  Like I said if you didnt have bad losses you wouldn't be a bubble team.

Looking at the last 4 in from Lunardi:

Miami has no bad losses, but they only have one top 50 win:

http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/miami-fl


NC State has one bad loss, but again, only one top 50 win:

http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/north-carolina-state


Minnesota has 2 bad losses, 3 top 50 wins.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/minnesota


Cinicnnati has 2 bad losses, 3 top 50 wins:

http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/cincinnati

so yeah.

I’m merely stating that team A finishing ahead of team B isn’t the factor (ie. The committee doesn’t say “hey they finished ahead of them so they’re in”, however the games that team A won (or rather the games that team B lost) in order to put team A ahead of team B matter. 

Project ISU and KSU’s record and rpi when the conf season ends….ISU is a lock, KSU is on the bubble.  Therefore, we’re not battling ISU. 

Actually if you project record and RPI using kenpom, both are locks. I'm sure using the zacker index we are off the bubble, though.

[catzacker]

what does Ken have us?  I would expect ken to have us going 2-4 w/ an RPI +55.   doesn't seem like  a lock to me. 

[michigancat]

what does Ken have us?  I would expect ken to have us going 2-4 w/ an RPI +55.   doesn't seem like  a lock to me. 

He has us going 3-3, with a better chance of 4-2 than 2-4.

[kso_FAN]

I’m merely stating that team A finishing ahead of team B isn’t the factor (ie. The committee doesn’t say “hey they finished ahead of them so they’re in”, however the games that team A won (or rather the games that team B lost) in order to put team A ahead of team B matter.  

Project ISU and KSU’s record and rpi when the conf season ends….ISU is a lock, KSU is on the bubble.  Therefore, we’re not battling ISU.  

Yeah, ISU has pretty much played their way off the bubble, even without much in the OOC. They project to finish 11-7 (including a loss to us) in the league with and RPI around 40. Do that, and they are safe. So they are at the point that if they simply play to expectations, they are safetly in.

If we play to expectations from here on out we'll likely finish 9-9 with an RPI around 50. That still gives us a good shot, but its much more precarious.

I'd certainly rather be in ISU's position right now. And you've got to give ISU credit, they had their bad games in the OOC, but have taken care of things in the league. Their only loss at home is MU and their worst road loss is at OSU. Plus they've already beat us, KU, and UT at home.

[catzacker]

what does Ken have us?  I would expect ken to have us going 2-4 w/ an RPI +55.   doesn't seem like  a lock to me. 

He has us going 3-3, with a better chance of 4-2 than 2-4.

  

still not battling ISU.  Prolly UT. 

[michigancat]

what does Ken have us?  I would expect ken to have us going 2-4 w/ an RPI +55.   doesn't seem like  a lock to me. 

He has us going 3-3, with a better chance of 4-2 than 2-4.

 

still not battling ISU.  Prolly UT. 

Jesus Christ, who cares. I just put them up there because they are currently the belle of the goEMAW ball, and when you compare us to them the same way the selection committee does, we compare very favorably. OBVIOUSLY they're in better shape, but when you're looking at bracketology and they're one seed higher, there isn't some sort of ridiculous gap between us. That's my only point.

[kso_FAN]

[michigancat]

that's awesome, but can you add 100+ losses w/o too much trouble?

[Stevesie60]

How much will our SOS go up after our next 3?

[MakeItRain]

that's awesome, but can you add 100+ losses w/o too much trouble?

Just add the losses from the other columns and subtract from the total

[kougar24]

Is "Last 12" really a criterion?

[kso_FAN]

Is "Last 12" really a criterion?

Supposedly not, but I don't know. Our friend Jason King outlined his experience in the mock selection last year and said one of the NCAA people said it doesn't/shouldn't matter: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=jn-tourneymock022311