Remember, though, 2/3 of the BCS ranking is based on the votes in the human polls, and typically speaking, human polls are not kind in week 14 to teams that are idle. Make sure you factor that in there.
The thing that I was looking at is there is little possible room for movement above Michigan in a meaningful way in the Harris and Coaches polls. Active teams next week outside of six or seven spots ahead of them most likely aren't in a position to lose. However, there are teams immediately below Michigan with an opportunity to gain traction in the polls due to the potential for big wins over inferior opponents (TCU) or big wins over meaningful teams (Baylor). The fact that Michigan is sandwiched between teams that will most likely fall into their immediate range (Michigan State/Wisconsin, Georgia), coupled with teams that will most likely rise into their range (TCU, Baylor) means that it will be hard to predict their vote tallies.
KSU was inactive last week, had no immediate movement around them, and just by having a bye week, they lost sixteen votes in the Harris poll and gained ten votes in the coaches poll. You have to account for that variation.
