So, because I am who I am, I did what I thought was the math on a lot of this, and it's going to be pretty hard for Michigan to get to #14 on a bye week.
The BCS average to hit #14 fluctuates pretty significantly from week to week, so it's hard to lock down exactly what they'll need. But it's safe to say they'll probably need to hit something around .4800 to get into the Top 14, and I'm kind of low-balling that (in my opinion).
Here's how the BCS is calculated:
*The Harris Poll, Coaches Poll, and Computer Rankings all get a third of a vote in terms of importance
*The Computer Rankings take six different polls, eliminate your highest and lowest values, and use the remaining four values to create a scoring metric where a first place ranking is worth 25 points and a twenty-fifth place ranking is worth one point. You add those values together and divide by one-hundred to get your value.
*The Harris Poll and BCS poll metrics are based on your point total (i.e. votes) divided by the maximum number of votes. Harris has 2,875 and the Coaches poll has 1,475
*At the end, all three of your metrics are added together and the average is your BCS number
I started with the computers because, well, that's where I started. It turns out that Michigan can't move up much in any of them. Right now, their point total is .410, and their max value there is probably .450 after you look at who is ahead of them in all of the polls. Their computer numbers are really going to drag them down, and if Michigan State loses to Wisconsin, it hurts them even more because their loss looks worse to the computers. And if Wisconsin loses that game, it just means Michigan State has either #12 or #13 in the BCS on lock down.
Once you get to the computer values, Michigan will need to gain a decent amount of votes in the Harris and Coaches polls. Because Georgia sits at #12, and they face LSU in the title game, there's a chance they may not get penalized all that much with a loss. And Baylor and TCU sit right behind Michigan, while KSU sits right in front of them. There's a better than average chance, with Michigan's inactivity, that there will be a mish mash of teams in that 14-18 range there that are all stealing votes from one another, especially if TCU and Baylor win convincingly (along with KSU getting to ten wins). Also, the odds of Georgia and the Big Ten champ dropping into that zone increase the odds of a much more even vote distribution in that space, making Michigan's odds of jumping two or three hundred votes pretty difficult. They may jump a spot or two, but it won't be a gigantic vote increase, which is what they need in the calculations.
As far as the Coaches' Poll goes, they'll probably jump a spot if Georgia loses, but if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten title, Michigan State currently sits at #9, and it's highly unlikely that voters will drop Michigan State six or seven spots into a position behind a team they beat earlier this year. So, if Whisky wins, Michigan may gain a few votes, but nowhere near what they actually need to move the BCS meter.
So, basically, Michigan needs nearly all of the games to fall their way, and they need MSU to win the Big Ten title. If Wisconsin wins, it definitely hurts Michigan because they'll vault ahead of them in basically every way, and it will definitely hurt Michigan's computer values. And Baylor, if they can beat Texas, stands a very serious chance of jumping Michigan and getting into the Top 14 because of how good their computer values are (and will be if they beat Texas), and how much movement they can gain in the human polls while Michigan sits at home and waits.
After breaking it down, even if Georgia loses, if Wisconsin and Baylor win next week, there's a better than average chance Michigan doesn't get into the Top 14, and we get an at-large into the Sugar Bowl, even after we get a share of the trophy with OSU and OU.
