Last week there were five teams with a legitimate shot at making the BCS title game. Three of those teams -- Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Oregon -- lost this weekend.
This week there are again five teams with realistic chances of playing for the national championship, including two teams that are new to the mix. Here are my latest BCS bowl projections, and the next teams in line for each of the 10 bids.
Allstate BCS National Championship Game
When: Jan. 9, 2012, 8:30 p.m. EST on ESPN
Current prediction: LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Next up for BCS No. 1 and No. 2 spots: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech
Barring a repeat of this weekend's chaos, the five teams listed above are the only ones that are on the radar.
If both LSU and Alabama win this coming weekend, against Arkansas and Auburn, respectively, then a Tigers-Crimson Tide rematch in the title game will begin to look very likely. That's because even if LSU loses the SEC title game to Georgia, it might not fall out of the top two in the BCS standings. And Alabama will be able to sit at home during conference championship weekend with little to no risk of dropping in the polls.
If the Razorbacks win this Friday, however, that is a different story.
The likely result under this scenario would be for Alabama to win the tiebreaker and the SEC West, and for Arkansas to move ahead of LSU in the BCS standings. For voters who don't want to see a repeat of Bama's 24-point thrashing of Arkansas from earlier this season, Oklahoma State might again begin to look like a viable option.
For Virginia Tech to have any chance of playing for the national championship, the Hokies will need Oklahoma State to lose and chaos to take place in the SEC. Things like Auburn beating Alabama and Georgia winning the SEC championship game would have to happen.
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Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio
When: Jan. 2, 2012, 5 p.m. EST on ESPN
Current prediction: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon Ducks
Next up for Wisconsin's spot (Big Ten): Michigan State, Penn State
Next up for Oregon's spot (Pac-12): Arizona State, Utah, UCLA, Stanford
I'm sticking with my prediction that Wisconsin will beat Penn State this weekend and Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game.
Stanford is only still nominally alive in the Pac-12 title hunt (the Cardinal need Oregon State to beat Oregon in Autzen), but a trio of Pac-12 South teams are still in the mix to win the division. If UCLA beats USC then the Bruins will get the championship game berth, but in the more likely scenario that the Trojans get the win, then both Utah and Arizona State will still be alive. The Utes need a win and losses by both UCLA and ASU, while the Sun Devils will take the division title if the Bruins lose but Utah wins, because of a detailed tiebreaker scenario.
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Icon SMI
Boise could still land in a BCS bowl.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
When: Jan. 5, 2012, 8:30 p.m. EST on ESPN
Current prediction: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Stanford Cardinal
Next up for Oklahoma State's spot (Big 12): Oklahoma, Kansas State
Next up for Stanford's spot (at-large): Michigan, Houston, Boise State
The only way Kansas State makes it to the Fiesta is if Oklahoma State lands in the BCS title game. Otherwise, it'll come down to the Cowboys and the Sooners.
Stanford is my current pick to land in the at-large spot here, but Michigan could also be an attractive option (and Houston could theoretically be in the mix). One other scenario to consider if Oklahoma lands here by beating Oklahoma State in Stillwater in two weeks is that the Fiesta may want to pick Boise State as an at-large team to create a rematch of the Sooners and Broncos' epic showdown from five years ago. If OU lands in the Fiesta, the bowl will need to do something to interest Sooners fans who were hoping instead for a BCS title game appearance, and pitting them against Boise just might do it.
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Allstate Sugar Bowl
When: Jan. 3, 2012, 8:30 p.m. EST on ESPN
Current prediction: Michigan Wolverines vs. Houston Cougars
Next up for Michigan's spot (SEC): Kansas State, Georgia, Arkansas, LSU
Next up for Houston's spot (at-large): TCU, West Virginia
There's an important note that goes along with this pick, which is that Michigan will need to make it into the top 14 in order to be chosen as an at-large team. But I'm guessing that a win next weekend over Ohio State will be enough to move the Wolverines up. If not, or if the Buckeyes win, Kansas State could become an option here.
The reason why the Sugar could end up picking two at-large teams is that an all-SEC BCS championship game matchup would use up the conference's two BCS bids. Houston is on track to be the second at-large pick here, because the Cougars will be the highest-ranked non-AQ conference champion if they win out. Remember, because the Big East champ is not going to be ranked in the top 16, the highest-ranked non-AQ conference champion (the team has to have won its league; that's why Boise State won't be in the mix) that ends up in the top 16 will get an automatic BCS bid.
It's very unlikely that the Sugar would take the Big East champ over the BCS buster, but if the bowl is deciding between West Virginia and TCU, for example, the Mountaineers could be the pick.
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Discover Orange Bowl
When: Jan. 4, 2012, 8 p.m. EST on ESPN
Current prediction: Virginia Tech Hokies vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Next up for Virginia Tech's spot (ACC): Clemson, Virginia
Next up for West Virginia's spot (Big East): Cincinnati, Rutgers, Louisville, Pittsburgh, TCU
I've changed both of my picks for this bowl following Clemson's and Cincinnati's losses this weekend. The Big East race is even more of a mess following this week's results, but I'm going with West Virginia at the moment. As described above, there's a chance that the Sugar might want to take the Mountaineers if they wind up as Big East champs, meaning that TCU could face the ACC champ in the Orange.
Speaking of the ACC, Virginia is still alive for a BCS bowl appearance. The Cavaliers can punch their ticket to the ACC championship game with a home win against Virginia Tech on Saturday.
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