Author Topic: Status/Twitter/Whatever steve dave Wants To Talk About Thread  (Read 1453029 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 37225
    • View Profile
Re: Status/Twitter/Whatever steve dave Wants To Talk About Thread
« Reply #8225 on: June 26, 2024, 01:38:58 PM »
The problem with using the tailgate tent's list to determine HFA, like some on twitter think you should do, is that for the most part, using point spread doesn't favor the best teams very well. K-State is on that list because we are chronically underrated by Vegas, but schools like Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, and USC are always heavy favorites at home, and frankly they play a lot of schools that are significantly worse. It's tough to have a better result for +/- spread when K-State is always a single digit favorite, no matter who when we play, when those other teams are frequently a four touchdown favorite.

The list factors in performance vs spread at home vs away, though. It's not looking at how much we are beating the spread so much as how our performance vs the spread in home games compares to road games. So that would account for at most of that. I think it's possible that some coaches aren't good at preparing teams for road games and that probably affects the list to some degree.

Offline ChiComCat

  • Chawbacon
  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 17693
    • View Profile
Re: Status/Twitter/Whatever steve dave Wants To Talk About Thread
« Reply #8226 on: June 26, 2024, 01:45:42 PM »
The problem with using the tailgate tent's list to determine HFA, like some on twitter think you should do, is that for the most part, using point spread doesn't favor the best teams very well. K-State is on that list because we are chronically underrated by Vegas, but schools like Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, and USC are always heavy favorites at home, and frankly they play a lot of schools that are significantly worse. It's tough to have a better result for +/- spread when K-State is always a single digit favorite, no matter who when we play, when those other teams are frequently a four touchdown favorite.

The list factors in performance vs spread at home vs away, though. It's not looking at how much we are beating the spread so much as how our performance vs the spread in home games compares to road games. So that would account for at most of that. I think it's possible that some coaches aren't good at preparing teams for road games and that probably affects the list to some degree.
Sure but outperforming the spread home vs away shows which teams Vegas misevaluates, not necessarily home-field advantage.  The most obvious home-field advantages, Vegas is going to account for more accurately.  It is relevant information, to be sure, but still incomplete information.

I mostly think the goal is to sell video games, not necessarily accuracy. They're going to give a lot of the bigger fanbases better advantages because it's good for business.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 37225
    • View Profile
Re: Status/Twitter/Whatever steve dave Wants To Talk About Thread
« Reply #8227 on: June 26, 2024, 02:07:53 PM »
Well, I don't think that Vegas is overvaluing Texas A&M so much that they should be no. 1 despite barely finishing above .500 at home in conference play most years.

Offline Spracne

  • Point Plank'r
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *
  • Posts: 22101
  • Scholar/Gentleman, But Super Earthy/Organic
    • View Profile
Re: Status/Twitter/Whatever steve dave Wants To Talk About Thread
« Reply #8228 on: June 26, 2024, 08:02:22 PM »
I'm sure from the field you can see the fake army section and yell leaders grabbing their balls

This was one of Mike Leach's best disses. (RIP, Coach)

Offline Stevesie60

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 17234
    • View Profile
Re: Status/Twitter/Whatever steve dave Wants To Talk About Thread
« Reply #8229 on: June 27, 2024, 03:30:24 PM »
The problem with using the tailgate tent's list to determine HFA, like some on twitter think you should do, is that for the most part, using point spread doesn't favor the best teams very well. K-State is on that list because we are chronically underrated by Vegas, but schools like Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, and USC are always heavy favorites at home, and frankly they play a lot of schools that are significantly worse. It's tough to have a better result for +/- spread when K-State is always a single digit favorite, no matter who when we play, when those other teams are frequently a four touchdown favorite.

The list factors in performance vs spread at home vs away, though. It's not looking at how much we are beating the spread so much as how our performance vs the spread in home games compares to road games. So that would account for at most of that. I think it's possible that some coaches aren't good at preparing teams for road games and that probably affects the list to some degree.

Yeah, shut the eff up MakeItRain.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 37225
    • View Profile
Re: Status/Twitter/Whatever steve dave Wants To Talk About Thread
« Reply #8230 on: June 27, 2024, 03:33:19 PM »
I just know that I'll be pissed off if we ever schedule a road game at Western Kentucky.