Author Topic: ChiRP Ranking  (Read 1496 times)

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Offline CHONGS

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ChiRP Ranking
« on: September 28, 2011, 09:56:04 PM »
Oh boy!  Finally a ranking system that takes into account potential as well results (in the term of wins and losses) AND adjusts for strength of schedule and tempo adjusted!

Behold the Chingon Real Power (ChiRP) Rankings (yes rankings, a rank here is a ranking earned!)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
RankingTeamOff PowerDef PowerPower SurplusPower win %
1Wisconsin40.7.11.8.28.9.1.0.
2Stanford41.0.13.7.27.3.0.974.
3Alabama38.0.10.9.27.1.0.971.
4Florida37.5.14.1.23.4.0.909.
5LSU36.3.13.2.23.1.0.905.
6Georgia Tech46.9.24.5.22.4.0.894.
7South Florida40.3.18.6.21.7.0.882.
8Oklahoma State46.4.27.6.18.8.0.833.
9Michigan32.9.14.7.18.1.0.822.
10Virginia Tech30.5.13.4.17.2.0.806.
11Oregon46.7.25.1.21.6.0.797.
12Illinois30.2.14.1.16.1.0.788.
13Cincinnati44.1.23.3.20.7.0.782.
14Nebraska38.0.22.4.15.6.0.780.
15Baylor44.1.29.1.15.1.0.772.
16Oklahoma33.3.19.2.14.1.0.756.
17Boise State32.6.19.7.12.9.0.736.
18South Carolina37.3.24.7.12.6.0.731.
19Texas Tech37.0.25.4.11.6.0.714.
20Temple28.6.12.6.16.0.0.704.
21TCU39.4.24.3.15.1.0.689.
22Texas A&M33.7.18.7.15.0.0.687.
23Texas27.9.19.1.8.85.0.669.
24Clemson33.7.25.1.8.60.0.665.
25Arkansas34.5.21.5.13.0.0.654.
38Kansas State18.0.15.3.2.70.0.567.
49Missouri33.2.23.4.9.78.0.517.
63Iowa State24.2.30.3.-6.14.0.420.
84Kansas29.2.43.6.-14.4.0.200.

Off Power is the average number of points that team would score against an average team.  Def Power is the avg number of points allowed.   You can use this ranking system to predict games as well by using the Power win %. 

Recall that the prob of team A "winning" is (I put "winning" in quotes because this is really a measure of which team will assert its will when it comes to pace, but closely related to the probability A will beat B as well)

ProbWinA =  (%winA - %winA*%winB)/(%winA+%winB-2*%winA*%winB)
ProbWinB = ProbWinA-1


From here the predicted score

PointsA = (ProbWinA*OffPowerA + ProbWinB*DefPowerB)
PointsB = (ProbWinB*OffPowerB + ProbWinA*DefPowerA)


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Offline DQ12

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Re: ChiRP Ranking
« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2011, 10:05:59 PM »
 :lol:

These get better every week.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline wetwillie

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Re: ChiRP Ranking
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2011, 10:30:24 PM »
Really starting to polish the turd, grats.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline Trim

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Re: ChiRP Ranking
« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2011, 10:38:24 PM »

Offline Stevesie60

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Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChiRP Ranking
« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2011, 11:25:10 PM »
Srry guys ranking is legit,  the method to predict scores is not.   Will correct tomorrow.

Offline steve dave

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Re: Re: ChiRP Ranking
« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2011, 06:15:05 AM »
OH eff OFF CHINGON

Offline Cire

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Re: ChiRP Ranking
« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2011, 06:44:28 AM »
wish kenpom did this for fball

Offline Cire

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Re: ChiRP Ranking
« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2011, 06:45:41 AM »
sagarin's got it a coinflip fwiw