Oh boy! Finally a ranking system that takes into account potential as well results (in the term of wins and losses) AND adjusts for strength of schedule and tempo adjusted!
Behold the Chingon Real Power (ChiRP) Rankings (yes rankings, a rank here is a ranking earned!)
Ranking | Team | Off Power | Def Power | Power Surplus | Power win % |
1 | Wisconsin | 40.7. | 11.8. | 28.9. | 1.0. |
2 | Stanford | 41.0. | 13.7. | 27.3. | 0.974. |
3 | Alabama | 38.0. | 10.9. | 27.1. | 0.971. |
4 | Florida | 37.5. | 14.1. | 23.4. | 0.909. |
5 | LSU | 36.3. | 13.2. | 23.1. | 0.905. |
6 | Georgia Tech | 46.9. | 24.5. | 22.4. | 0.894. |
7 | South Florida | 40.3. | 18.6. | 21.7. | 0.882. |
8 | Oklahoma State | 46.4. | 27.6. | 18.8. | 0.833. |
9 | Michigan | 32.9. | 14.7. | 18.1. | 0.822. |
10 | Virginia Tech | 30.5. | 13.4. | 17.2. | 0.806. |
11 | Oregon | 46.7. | 25.1. | 21.6. | 0.797. |
12 | Illinois | 30.2. | 14.1. | 16.1. | 0.788. |
13 | Cincinnati | 44.1. | 23.3. | 20.7. | 0.782. |
14 | Nebraska | 38.0. | 22.4. | 15.6. | 0.780. |
15 | Baylor | 44.1. | 29.1. | 15.1. | 0.772. |
16 | Oklahoma | 33.3. | 19.2. | 14.1. | 0.756. |
17 | Boise State | 32.6. | 19.7. | 12.9. | 0.736. |
18 | South Carolina | 37.3. | 24.7. | 12.6. | 0.731. |
19 | Texas Tech | 37.0. | 25.4. | 11.6. | 0.714. |
20 | Temple | 28.6. | 12.6. | 16.0. | 0.704. |
21 | TCU | 39.4. | 24.3. | 15.1. | 0.689. |
22 | Texas A&M | 33.7. | 18.7. | 15.0. | 0.687. |
23 | Texas | 27.9. | 19.1. | 8.85. | 0.669. |
24 | Clemson | 33.7. | 25.1. | 8.60. | 0.665. |
25 | Arkansas | 34.5. | 21.5. | 13.0. | 0.654. |
38 | Kansas State | 18.0. | 15.3. | 2.70. | 0.567. |
49 | Missouri | 33.2. | 23.4. | 9.78. | 0.517. |
63 | Iowa State | 24.2. | 30.3. | -6.14. | 0.420. |
84 | Kansas | 29.2. | 43.6. | -14.4. | 0.200. |
Off Power is the average number of points that team would score against an average team. Def Power is the avg number of points allowed. You can use this ranking system to predict games as well by using the Power win %.
Recall that the prob of team A "winning" is (I put "winning" in quotes because this is really a measure of which team will assert its will when it comes to pace, but closely related to the probability A will beat B as well)
ProbWinA = (%winA - %winA*%winB)/(%winA+%winB-2*%winA*%winB)
ProbWinB = ProbWinA-1
From here the predicted score
PointsA = (ProbWinA*OffPowerA + ProbWinB*DefPowerB)
PointsB = (ProbWinB*OffPowerB + ProbWinA*DefPowerA)