I wonder where Kietz gets his information that the percentages to win are higher when you foul up 3? (They are talking about OSU not fouling.)
He goes through the math using assumptions.
Foul, you put a 80% shooter on the line, 30% chance of 0-board, kick to 40% 3 point shooter...~10% chance of losing...vs...
Don't foul, 40% chance 3-point shooter makes it, then 50% chance you lose in OT....20%
At least that's how he did it when I heard him blabbing on the air about it last week.