i can't believe that losing to isu has the same probability of losing to cu. it's not a coin flip.
it doesn't, of course. but it wouldn't have been anywhere near zero. and not all that different. cu's kenpom was .8285 (60th), isu's was .7531 (76th). two teams far more similar in quality than in perception, so the risk/reward selection was obvious.
it's just a shame we couldn't have played a&m or mu instead of either of them.