The Official Bracketology Thread

[wetwillie]

Outside of losing the rest of our games is there any prayer of us missing the tourney?

probably would have to go 1-5 or worse in our last 5 plus big 12 tourney to not make the tourney. i think 2-3 last 5 reg season gets us in.

This is very disheartening

[kslim]

Getting so excited for this years 4 day bender/march madness man caveathon this year. 

would you rather go watch a good bracket at a great location or watch the cats in wichita (who will not likely make it out of wichita)?

[420seriouscat69]

Great location. I don't think i'm heading to Wichita even if they're there. I did get excited about the Charlotte site. Now that we've done so much to the downstairs, I might even do a staycation and meet up with some buds in the afternoon. 

[kslim]

Great location. I don't think i'm heading to Wichita even if they're there. I did get excited about the Charlotte site. Now that we've done so much to the downstairs, I might even do a staycation and meet up with some buds in the afternoon. 

pittsburgh looks good, i was thinking about that one. especially if we play florida

[ChiComCat]

I have a hard time spending the money and time to travel unless we're a high enough seed to make a splash.  Partly because I don't want to make the effort to watch us lose and partly because it's tough to beat sitting at a sports bar with four games on.

I would possibly do Wichita this year but that's it (barring some magical end of season run).

[420seriouscat69]

Great location. I don't think i'm heading to Wichita even if they're there. I did get excited about the Charlotte site. Now that we've done so much to the downstairs, I might even do a staycation and meet up with some buds in the afternoon. 

pittsburgh looks good, i was thinking about that one. especially if we play florida

I loved my trip there. Got totally lost in the city and had a blast. They also have a huge st pattys day parade around the center where the games are. I would definitely go back there.

[420seriouscat69]

I have a hard time spending the money and time to travel unless we're a high enough seed to make a splash.  Partly because I don't want to make the effort to watch us lose and partly because it's tough to beat sitting at a sports bar with four games on.

I would possibly do Wichita this year but that's it (barring some magical end of season run).

Totally good times as well. I was in LA seeing my buddy last year for the tournament. It was tough there tho. He found a Kansas bar, but it was actually a KU bar, and they wouldn't let us put a TV on K-state. Had to go find somewhere that would play it. Love that city, but not a place for a sports weekend.

[pissclams]

la is the perfect location for march madness
-9am games with breakfast and mimosas
-transplant city, a good sports bar like the parlor on melrose or the beanery will be packed with college fans from every school in the field
-the weather
-the food
-the babes
-games done by 9, time to go out and party

just because your squawk buddy brought you to a squawk bar doesn’t mean it’s not a perfect city for madness

[420seriouscat69]

He just didn't know where to go. He's a cat, just not as big of a sports nut as I am. Good to know moving forward however.

[pissclams]

sounds like something a squawk would say

[I_have_purplewood]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

I have no clue why Palm has a job. He's never that accurate.

He has Houston seeded higher than Bama. Bama has 7/2 on the Q1/Q2 wins. They have a good NonCon SOS (23). Houston is 5/1 on the good wins and has a 271 NonCon SOS. 

Bama 8-5 in 3rd rated Conference
Houston 10-3 in 7th rated Conference

Few others I disagree with, but the Bama/Houston one made me LOL.

You are so correct about him.  The worst.

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

RPI is rough ridin' Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) and should be dumpster fired.

[MakeItRain]

They are de-emphasizing it, they wanted to starting last year. The committee is struggling whether to use predictive formulas or ones that are more of a snapshot of what teams have accomplished, or how they will weigh each model because they're likely to use a combination of both.

[kso_FAN]

They are de-emphasizing it, they wanted to starting last year. The committee is struggling whether to use predictive formulas or ones that are more of a snapshot of what teams have accomplished, or how they will weigh each model because they're likely to use a combination of both.

Yes, but they will still use it to put teams into groups. The tier win system for quality wins, SOS, etc are all still based on the RPI I believe. But they will also have other metrics available on the team sheets from what I understand.

[sys]

they should not use predictive methods, that's completely inappropriate.  teams need to be evaluated purely based on accomplishments.

[michigancat]

they should not use predictive methods, that's completely inappropriate.  teams need to be evaluated purely based on accomplishments.

Aren't most (all?) of the predictive measurements based on accomplishments? Maybe this was your point.

[MakeItRain]

There is a good conversion about this here. I know I pump this podcast a lot but if you care about college basketball beyond K-State, even a little bit, these guys are a must listen. The most informed and the most entertaining, it's my favorite podcast, sports or otherwise.

After the selection commiteee's top-16 reveal on Sunday, Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander give a full rundown not just of the teams picked and those snubbed, but go in depth on the new process and what you need to know about how the NCAA is changing the way it seeds and select teams. It's a long discussion, with some difference in opinion between the guys on what the committee does, but worth it for any fan who will watch again come Selection Sunday.

* Published: 2/11/18 8:39:05 PM

* Episode Download Link (71 MB):

* Episode Feed: CBS Sports Eye On College Basketball Podcast - http://podcasts.cstv.com/feeds/mensbasketball.xml

[sys]

they should not use predictive methods, that's completely inappropriate.  teams need to be evaluated purely based on accomplishments.

Aren't most (all?) of the predictive measurements based on accomplishments? Maybe this was your point.

only if you consider mol/mov an accomplishment.  to me, an athletic contest is winner take all.  for ncaa tournament consideration, a team should get no credit for a close loss, nor an extra credit for a blowout.

[michigancat]

they should not use predictive methods, that's completely inappropriate.  teams need to be evaluated purely based on accomplishments.

Aren't most (all?) of the predictive measurements based on accomplishments? Maybe this was your point.

only if you consider mol/mov an accomplishment.  to me, an athletic contest is winner take all.  for ncaa tournament consideration, a team should get no credit for a close loss, nor an extra credit for a blowout.

yes but the committee is able to differentiate from multiple teams with the same record and few (or zero) common opponents every year. I don't see how ranking quality of wins is any different than factoring MOV, in principal. They are all attempts at being predictive and rely on results from the past to make those predictions.

[sys]

it's different in principal, if less so in practice.  the principal is that the only thing that matters is whether you win or lose the game.  it gets messier when you factor in anything other than record into your perception of the quality of the win or loss, which we all do, whether explicitly or implicitly.  but the principle is not violated, at least among first order interactions.

[michigancat]

it's different in principal, if less so in practice.  the principal is that the only thing that matters is whether you win or lose the game.  it gets messier when you factor in anything other than record into your perception of the quality of the win or loss, which we all do, whether explicitly or implicitly.  but the principle is not violated, at least among first order interactions.

Any method used to evaluate and compare strength of teams other than winning percentage is an attempt to be predictive. (Winning percentage can be, too, but it's the only method truly based solely on accomplishments as you define it.)

[sys]

i'm not explaining myself well.

it is acceptable to use predictive measures to define opponent quality because there is no alternative to using some qualitative criteria to do so, and a predictive measure is more rigorous and less subject to bias than most other possible criteria.

it is not acceptable to use them directly to determine who gets in the tournament, because a predictive measure if a team should have won more or less than they did should never supersede if they actually won or lost the games they played.

[Powercat Posse]

Another team I have no clue why people are in love with is St Mary's.  Palm has them as a 6 seed as of this morning. Lunardi had them a 7 on his Friday projection.    I have them as a weak 10 seed FWIW.

25-4 record
Not a strong Non Con (202 SOS)
Overall SOS 157, because WCC isn't that good beyond them & Zags
Q1 win - at Gonzaga. Q2 wins - at Byu, N.Mexico St.
Only 2 road wins vs Top 150.
2 losses in the Q3 Tier (those are not good)

So to sum up. They have 3 good wins, 2 bad losses, very few quality road wins.  After playing a weaker non con schedule, they will play 14 of 18 games in the WCC against teams between 148-325 in RPI

[Powercat Posse]

Blind Resume. These are Power6 teams but not Big 12.  Both teams are above .500 in their Conference

Team A --
21-7 Record
Non Con SOS 273
Conference SOS 52
Q1 record 3-5
Q2 record 3-2
Road/Nuetral in Q1/Q2 games 3-6
No bad losses

Team B --
19-8 record
Non Con SOS 99
Conference SOS 70
Q1 record 5-7
Q2 record 1-1
Road/Neutral in Q1/Q2 games 3-7
No bad losses


I think these resumes are pretty similar.   Lunardi has them seeded quite differently. He has 1 team 5 seeds higher than the other. 

Michigan a 5. Arkansas a 10


KState Resume for comparison--
19-8 record
Non Con SOS 336
Conference SOS 7
Q1 record 3-6
Q2 record 5-1
Road/Nuetral in Q1/Q2 5-4
1 bad loss, Q3 loss - Tulsa RPI 86

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

Michigan is trash and lunardi is a trash pedlar.