Author Topic: kenpom 4 factors  (Read 1665 times)

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Offline mcmwcat

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kenpom 4 factors
« on: February 21, 2011, 01:52:56 PM »
i'm having an issue w/ FTR.  this factor seems to be dependent on TO% and OR%.

higher TO% -> less FGA -> higher FTR

higher OR% -> more FGA -> lower FTR

shouldn't the 4 factors be independent?  shouldn't the FTR factor be more like FTA%?


edit:  not thinking here.  of course it's still independent.  whether or not you get an extra possession from an OR or lose one from a TO you still have a chance to shoot FT vs FG.


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« Last Edit: February 22, 2011, 08:25:58 AM by mcmwcat »

Offline kougar24

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Re: kenpom 4 factors
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2011, 02:07:45 PM »
Nice save.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: kenpom 4 factors
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2011, 07:50:42 PM »
i'm having an issue w/ FTR.  this factor seems to be dependent on TO% and OR%.

higher TO% -> less FGA -> higher FTR

higher OR% -> more FGA -> lower FTR

shouldn't the 4 factors be independent?  shouldn't the FTR factor be more like FTA%?

edit:  not thinking here.  of course it's still independent.  whether or not you get an extra possession from an OR or lose one from a TO you still have a chance to shoot FT vs FG.

IMO they are all good independent measures, but no doubt they have some dependence on each other. All of the scenarios you mention could be true, and I'd say one reason our FT rate is lower this year is b/c we have a higher TO% than last year. It makes sense that a wasted possession would mean a wasted opportunity to get a FTA or a FGA and thus also an OR.

And I'm not sure what you meant by "shouldn't the FTR factor be more like FTA%?" b/c essentially that is what it is.

Offline mcmwcat

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Re: kenpom 4 factors
« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2011, 10:35:29 PM »
i'm having an issue w/ FTR.  this factor seems to be dependent on TO% and OR%.

higher TO% -> less FGA -> higher FTR

higher OR% -> more FGA -> lower FTR

shouldn't the 4 factors be independent?  shouldn't the FTR factor be more like FTA%?

edit:  not thinking here.  of course it's still independent.  whether or not you get an extra possession from an OR or lose one from a TO you still have a chance to shoot FT vs FG.

IMO they are all good independent measures, but no doubt they have some dependence on each other. All of the scenarios you mention could be true, and I'd say one reason our FT rate is lower this year is b/c we have a higher TO% than last year. It makes sense that a wasted possession would mean a wasted opportunity to get a FTA or a FGA and thus also an OR.

And I'm not sure what you meant by "shouldn't the FTR factor be more like FTA%?" b/c essentially that is what it is.

FTA% would be FTA/possessions.  FTR is FTA/FGA.  anyway i already declared my dumb-assery in my edit.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: kenpom 4 factors
« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2011, 10:42:42 PM »
OR% is not OR/possessions. Just sayin'.

Offline mcmwcat

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Re: kenpom 4 factors
« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2011, 08:22:53 AM »
OR% is not OR/possessions. Just sayin'.

yeah.  but oppy's for OR happen only after a FGM(iss).  oppy's for FT happen every possession. 

i still like FTR because you can only have FTA or FGA if you don't TO.

yes i've come full circle.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2011, 08:29:34 AM by mcmwcat »

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: kenpom 4 factors
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2011, 08:27:25 AM »
OR% is not OR/possessions. Just sayin'.

yeah.  but oppy's for OR happen only after a FGM.  oppy's for FT happen every possession. 

i still like FTR because you can only have FTA or FGA if you don't TO.

yes i've come full circle.

 :cheers: