Mainstream Economics Thread

[wetwillie]

I don't think a rate cut is going to matter on jobs tbh.  That's not going to make AI replace white collar workers at a slower pace.

[Pete]

I don't think a rate cut is going to matter on jobs tbh.  That's not going to make AI replace white collar workers at a slower pace.

The only thing holding that back is the pace of technological advancement.


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[steve dave]

I don't think a rate cut is going to matter on jobs tbh.  That's not going to make AI replace white collar workers at a slower pace.

Inflation is going to go through the roof no matter what now unfortunately. The primary thing lower rates could do to benefit this country is loosening up the housing market. That and boomers hurrying up and getting shoved into a home/dying.


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[Justwin]

I don't think a rate cut is going to matter on jobs tbh.  That's not going to make AI replace white collar workers at a slower pace.

It will matter on the margin.

[Justwin]

I don't think a rate cut is going to matter on jobs tbh.  That's not going to make AI replace white collar workers at a slower pace.

Inflation is going to go through the roof no matter what now unfortunately. The primary thing lower rates could do to benefit this country is loosening up the housing market. That and boomers hurrying up and getting shoved into a home/dying.


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What is through the roof?

What do you think the inflation rate will be (CPI-U) in the report that comes out in June of 2026?

[wetwillie]

I don't think a rate cut is going to matter on jobs tbh.  That's not going to make AI replace white collar workers at a slower pace.

Inflation is going to go through the roof no matter what now unfortunately. The primary thing lower rates could do to benefit this country is loosening up the housing market. That and boomers hurrying up and getting shoved into a home/dying.


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How are rate cuts going to loosen up the market?  Psychologically trick people into thinking a 600k house at 5% is better than a 550k one at 6%?

[wetwillie]

I don't think a rate cut is going to matter on jobs tbh.  That's not going to make AI replace white collar workers at a slower pace.

Inflation is going to go through the roof no matter what now unfortunately. The primary thing lower rates could do to benefit this country is loosening up the housing market. That and boomers hurrying up and getting shoved into a home/dying.


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What is through the roof?

What do you think the inflation rate will be (CPI-U) in the report that comes out in June of 2026?

4%+

[Stupid Fitz]

I don't think a rate cut is going to matter on jobs tbh.  That's not going to make AI replace white collar workers at a slower pace.

Inflation is going to go through the roof no matter what now unfortunately. The primary thing lower rates could do to benefit this country is loosening up the housing market. That and boomers hurrying up and getting shoved into a home/dying.


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Deporting the only people willing to work in nursing homes will def help one of these things!


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[sonofdaxjones]

StupidFitz thinks only illegal immigrants work in assisted living facilities. 

Every day this dude quadruples down on the derp and then floods this blog with it.

StupidFitz - worried about deporting illegal immigrants since 1/26/25




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[steve dave]

I don't think a rate cut is going to matter on jobs tbh.  That's not going to make AI replace white collar workers at a slower pace.

Inflation is going to go through the roof no matter what now unfortunately. The primary thing lower rates could do to benefit this country is loosening up the housing market. That and boomers hurrying up and getting shoved into a home/dying.


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What is through the roof?

What do you think the inflation rate will be (CPI-U) in the report that comes out in June of 2026?

I'm not as knowledgeable on the rates as you are but I think we could see 7. I'd just say it's going to be a shitload higher than it has (had) to be (just like last print) and fed rates will have no say in it unfortunately. a lot of trump backing off all his nonsense will hopefully not make that reality.

[steve dave]

out of curiosity what do you see?

[steve dave]

https://x.com/AaronBlake/status/1959220460677149099

[Justwin]

out of curiosity what do you see?

By June of 2026 I think inflation will be something like 2.5 - 2.8%. The inflation effects from tariffs are not persistent as long as the tariff rate doesn't change (big assumption!). I think inflation will continue to rise through the end of the year, but I would be surprised to get all the way to 4%. It certainly could happen, though. I would guess it will hit 3.5% at year end. Once we hit 2026, I think inflation will start coming down as tariff effects will start to be in the previous year's data at that point. I think core inflation will be higher than overall inflation for a while as tariffs won't affect energy and food as much as other goods.

One thing that could have an effect to cause inflation to be higher would be for tariff rebates to be sent out. I don't necessarily think it is bad policy in a vacuum. It would help out lower income families, but it would cause some more inflation.

[steve dave]

well, that would be nice (ish)

[steve dave]

https://x.com/NewReaganCaucus/status/1959079701114179771

[steve dave]

you guys want to see how financially dumb MAGAs are?

https://x.com/DC_Draino/status/1958891151584317595

[sonofdaxjones]

I wonder why Black Rock (for example) changed their approach to DEI and ESG this year?  For example - starting this year there's suddenly new options to choose from on voting proxies.  Weird timing.

Really makes you think.

[sonofdaxjones]

Gav bloviating about Intel is  given the massive regulatory overreach that exists in his state which only serves to give even more market advantages to mega corps.

[Dugout DickStone]

you guys want to see how financially dumb MAGAs are?

https://x.com/DC_Draino/status/1958891151584317595

Draino is notorious incel boss

[catastrophe]

I wonder why Black Rock (for example) changed their approach to DEI and ESG this year?  For example - starting this year there's suddenly new options to choose from on voting proxies.  Weird timing.

Really makes you think.

Can you explain what you’re actually talking about? “New options to choose from on voting proxies” does not mean anything.

[sonofdaxjones]

I wonder why Black Rock (for example) changed their approach to DEI and ESG this year?  For example - starting this year there's suddenly new options to choose from on voting proxies.  Weird timing.

Really makes you think.

Can you explain what you’re actually talking about? “New options to choose from on voting proxies” does not mean anything.

The proper phraseology I should have used is that BlackRock is allowing institutional investors to directly vote their proxies via their new voting choice program. Thus reducing BlackRocks voting power. They’ve also scaled back DEI/ESG mentions dramatically.

They’ve also dropped percentile demands on board make up.

Wealth first is back at BlackRock, cat


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[Rage Against the McKee]

He fired a lady from the fed board today.

[steve dave]

Third world ass president

https://x.com/micah_erfan/status/1960138298409779537?s=46


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[LickNeckey]

many people are saying they want a dictator

[LickNeckey]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-trade-deficit-in-goods-widened-sharply-in-july-as-firms-raced-to-avoid-tariffs-fe2898b6

The US trade deficit in goods widened to $103.6 billion in July 2025, a significant 22.1% increase from June.