Mainstream Economics Thread

[IPA4Me]

That's not how a recession is defined.

Edit... SD snuck in a post.

That is the correct definition.

[cfbandyman]

It was discussed on this blog when it was occurring

Not specific to this topic/thread, but I love when dax does this.  There is almost no topic, political or otherwise, that has not been "discussed" on this blog, even if that discussion is just one person posting something about something and being ignored.

If I cared to look back IIRC he bitched the entire time that it was the "slowest growth" or "weakest growth" economy OAT under Biden, even though it was pretty solid to kicking ass most of it.

And yeah, discussed being him shouting into the ether

[sonofdaxjones]

It was discussed on this blog when it was occurring

Not specific to this topic/thread, but I love when dax does this.  There is almost no topic, political or otherwise, that has not been "discussed" on this blog, even if that discussion is just one person posting something about something and being ignored.

It essentially points to the prolific use of illicit mind altering drugs by #blueanongE - They can't remember anything

[sonofdaxjones]

It was discussed on this blog when it was occurring

Not specific to this topic/thread, but I love when dax does this.  There is almost no topic, political or otherwise, that has not been "discussed" on this blog, even if that discussion is just one person posting something about something and being ignored.

If I cared to look back IIRC he bitched the entire time that it was the "slowest growth" or "weakest growth" economy OAT under Biden, even though it was pretty solid to kicking ass most of it.

And yeah, discussed being him shouting into the ether

The biggest talking point is that all the "growth" was either revised down after the fact, or was fueled by massive government spending.

Which #blueanongE steadfastly refuses to awknowledge.

Not to mention the prolific loss of full time private sector jobs in non government subsidized spaces.

[sonofdaxjones]

According to Elon Musk

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Insert video of a special news conference called by Joe Biden's handlers where they sent Joe out to read from note cards to tell us that "experts" say that we were not in a recession here

[steve dave]

Also the experts did say that dipshit. Is your old ass reading from a zero hedge post?


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[sonofdaxjones]

Also the experts did say that dipshit. Is your old ass reading from a zero hedge post?


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Yes, the experts did say that we were not in a recession, because they know a recession when they see it

The other components such as jobs were ultimately revised down, and the job market was buoyed exclusively by government hiring or government subsidized hiring. Facts that you refuse to recognize like a big fat giant derp.  Consumer spending was credit availability spending (as home refi rejection rates currently approach 50%)

[star seed 7]

Dax is an alternative expert

[Dugout DickStone]

Bloodbath

[steve dave]

Bloodbath

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[Justwin]

My takeaway from all of this is that we were not at any point during the Biden administration in a recession. Even if jobs numbers were revised down, we were at or below 4.0% unemployment for all of 2022. That kind of unemployment is incompatible with a recession. It doesn't matter if it was fueled by government spending or if growth was fueled by easy credit for consumers, it's not a recession.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Yeah, what we are currently experiencing feels a lot more like a recession.

[sonofdaxjones]

Economics by feel . . . Deep insight from #blueanongE

It’s not a recession until we say so . . .


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[sonofdaxjones]

My takeaway from all of this is that we were not at any point during the Biden administration in a recession. Even if jobs numbers were revised down, we were at or below 4.0% unemployment for all of 2022. That kind of unemployment is incompatible with a recession. It doesn't matter if it was fueled by government spending or if growth was fueled by easy credit for consumers, it's not a recession.

Excellent part time employment numbers in non government subsidized sectors. This is true


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[sonofdaxjones]

I wonder what was driving credit card debit

https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc


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[LickNeckey]

Yeah, what we are currently experiencing feels a lot more like a recession.

we have yet to begin

[sonofdaxjones]

“Conventional delinquencies remain near historical lows, but FHA and VA delinquencies are increasing at a faster pace. By the end of the fourth quarter, the spread between the FHA and conventional delinquency rates reached 841 basis points, while the VA and conventional spread was 208 basis points.”

Added Walsh, “Government loans are also rolling to later stages of delinquency. Compared to one year ago, the seriously delinquent rate rose seventy basis points for FHA loans and fifty-seven basis points for VA loans, but only two basis points for conventional loans.”

https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2025/02/06/mortgage-delinquencies-increase-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2024

FHA is now back in 2004 to 2008 territory

The last traditional business fiscal year of Joe Biden's term we saw a new all time record personal credit card debt level, and government backed mortgages in delinquency climbed into 2004 to 2008 territory.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Economics by feel . . . Deep insight from #blueanongE

It’s not a recession until we say so . . .


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You have to give it some time to determine if you are actually in one.

[LickNeckey]

The impending recession is obviously Biden's fault.

[wetwillie]

The impending recession is obviously Biden's fault.

Auto pen = auto recession

[sonofdaxjones]

I won't even get into what they did to roll the debt implosion forward.

We disavow the crap sandwich we left behind . . . Shrooms Yellen and #blueanon/#blueanongE

Can anyone address why personal credit card debt expanded to record levels under Pedo Pete?

Insert the thousands of articles that read something like "Americans increasingly turn to credit to pay for basics" . . . here

[sonofdaxjones]

Economics by feel . . . Deep insight from #blueanongE

It’s not a recession until we say so . . .


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You have to give it some time to determine if you are actually in one.

We won't be in one if they send Don Trump out with some notecards that say we're not in one . . . that's how it works these days

[Justwin]

Economics by feel . . . Deep insight from #blueanongE

It’s not a recession until we say so . . .


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You have to give it some time to determine if you are actually in one.

We won't be in one if they send Don Trump out with some notecards that say we're not in one . . . that's how it works these days

You do know that neither the president nor the Treasury Secretary have anything to do with determining whether or not we're in a recession.

[sonofdaxjones]

Economics by feel . . . Deep insight from #blueanongE

It’s not a recession until we say so . . .


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You have to give it some time to determine if you are actually in one.

We won't be in one if they send Don Trump out with some notecards that say we're not in one . . . that's how it works these days

You do know that neither the president nor the Treasury Secretary have anything to do with determining whether or not we're in a recession.

Yes, I do know that, it's the people that "know a recession when they see it" who do that.

[Justwin]

Economics by feel . . . Deep insight from #blueanongE

It’s not a recession until we say so . . .


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You have to give it some time to determine if you are actually in one.

We won't be in one if they send Don Trump out with some notecards that say we're not in one . . . that's how it works these days

You do know that neither the president nor the Treasury Secretary have anything to do with determining whether or not we're in a recession.

Yes, I do know that, it's the people that "know a recession when they see it" who do that.

Then why don't you just take the NBER's word on whether or not we're in a recession and leave it at that?