Fire up the angry emails

[EllToPay]

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/preview2010/insider/news/story?id=5737465&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fncb%2fpreview2010%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d5737465

ps, someone pls copy/paste

[WillieWatanabe]

What a surprise Gasaway hates us

[TheMadCatter]

The AP preseason men's college basketball poll was released today, so wipe that silly World Series out of your mind this instant. College hoops begins now. It's time to debate who's already being overrated and which teams are being overlooked.

Welcome to the first edition of "Poll Position," a series that debates the merits of the most recent polls. Each week I'll shine a bright light on the errors committed by otherwise well-meaning writers (AP poll) and understandably preoccupied coaches (ESPN/USA Today) who rate these teams. And in my mind, they've already goofed.

I'll be blunt: Who did Kansas State charm this summer? No. 3 in the country? I can see No. 3 in the Big 12 -- maybe -- and Jacob Pullen can play for my team any day of the week. But shouldn't the third-best college team in the United States do more than simply hack and be hacked?

I'm open to persuasion, and certainly K-State will have a fantastic opportunity to change my mind right away. By Thanksgiving the Wildcats will have played Virginia Tech, Gonzaga and either Duke or Marquette. But right now I'm seeing an offense that couldn't hold onto the rock or make 3s against Big 12 defenses last season. It just doesn't say "No. 3 in the nation" to me.


Of course college basketball is blessed with a near-perfect mechanism for exposing and correcting these errors once and for all -- a little thing called March Madness. But March is a long way away, and even the NCAA tournament offers its own set of problems. Would Villanova have been as overrated as it was last season if it hadn't made the 2009 Final Four? For a team that had gone 4-6 over its last 10 games to receive a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament was, uh, benevolent of the selection committee.

The Cats needed overtime to escape 15-seed Robert Morris in the first round of the tournament. In its next game, Saint Mary's bounced Nova without too much trouble. The West Coast Conference isn't anywhere near as tough as the Big East, of course, but Omar Samhan and the Gaels did outscore the WCC by 0.14 points per possession. Nova, on the other hand, outscored the Big East by just 0.08 points per trip. Forget seeds. If you were re-armed with this kind of granular per-possession knowledge, SMC beating the Cats 75-68 on a neutral floor was hardly a shock.

I'll use several means of evaluating teams this season, and my eyes and common sense will always come first. But additionally I'll look at how well a team does on each possession it plays. Did it score? Did it allow its opponent to score? Looking at possessions gives us way more information than merely tallying up wins and losses. For one thing, there are simply a lot more possessions than there are games.

Look at it this way: Last season, not many people were talking about Baylor. Scott Drew's program isn't what you'd call a traditional power and, anyway, the Big 12 was already well represented in the national discussion by Kansas and Kansas State. But when I looked at the Bears' possessions in conference play, here's what I saw: 1,229 points scored in 1,081 possessions; in other words, on each trip down the floor during their conference season, Baylor on average scored 1.14 points.

That level of offensive efficiency is outstanding. True, Baylor's defense wasn't as good as its offense, but it was better than it had ever been before under Drew. And looking at the Bears on a possession-by-possession basis, I saw a team that outscored the Big 12 by 0.10 points per trip. That's nowhere near as impressive as what the aforementioned Kansas team was simultaneously recording in the same league, of course (+0.18), but it's still a fair indication of a team with the potential to go deep into the NCAA tournament.

Which, of course, is exactly what Baylor did, reaching the Elite Eight before falling to the eventual national champion Duke Blue Devils 78-71. Then again you might remember that the Jayhawks, so dominant over the course of 1,105 Big 12 possessions, weren't so fortunate. (One word: Farokhmanesh.) Keeping tabs on teams on a per-possession basis doesn't allow us to peer infallibly into the future. It's just one additional form of information. And it's more accurate than the highly opinionated polls.

Tracking on-court reality helps me correct for distortions that will, inevitably, arise in the rankings. By "distortions" I mean extraneous yet undeniably powerful factors like media coverage, reputation, geography, the star player's affability and the head coach's ability to provide good copy.

Calling upon that on-court reality, you can make the case that Baylor was underrated for the balance of last season and Kansas State was overrated. Baylor outscored the Big 12 by 0.10 points per possession, entered the NCAA tournament ranked No. 21 in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll, and was given a No. 3 seed. Kansas State outscored the Big 12 by 0.08 points per possession, entered the NCAA tournament ranked No. 7 in the coaches' poll and was given a No. 2 seed.

Both teams reached the Elite Eight. My own read is that the Bears and Wildcats were more or less equivalent. (Both were really good.) But they weren't treated that way in the polls.

This year K-State's near the top of the polls again. Is Frank Martin's group really the third-best team in the country behind only Duke and Michigan State? I'll be offering my best answer to that question and many others like it all the way to March. Meantime, if you're planning on tuning into a Kansas State game, be ready for free throws.

A lot of free throws.

[CatsNShocks]

FINALLY!

Some bulletin board material for Frank.

[Poster formerly known as jthutch]

We just need to make free throws.

[jtksu]

Missing free throws is going to cost us some games this year!!! 

[ChiComCat]

I'm just spit-balling here, but maybe we were higher ranked because we beat them on a neutral court and on their home court? 

Don't really give a crap if someone calls us overrated.  It may be true.  But to imply Baylor was better than us is pretty rough ridin' Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) when we beat them twice AND we went as deep at they did.

[sys]

But to imply Baylor was better than us is pretty rough ridin' Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) when we beat them twice AND we went as deep at they did.

i have no interest in promoting baylor.  but points/possession over the conference season is a better way to assess which team was better than is using the win/loss record of two teams that were separated by 9 points over 80 minutes of bball.


who went farther in the tournament is beyond Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!).

[ChiComCat]

But to imply Baylor was better than us is pretty rough ridin' Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) when we beat them twice AND we went as deep at they did.

i have no interest in promoting baylor.  but points/possession over the conference season is a better way to assess which team was better than is using the win/loss record of two teams that were separated by 9 points over 80 minutes of bball.


who went farther in the tournament is beyond Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!).

pssst: Tournament run was so we could still take shots at KU, not for any actual value

[jtksu]

So, pts/possession is a better barometers of a team's ability than 2 head to head match-ups?  That's just rough ridin' stupid.

[sys]

So, pts/possession is a better barometers of a team's ability than 2 head to head match-ups?  That's just rough ridin' stupid.

this is why you're a Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!), btw.

[jtksu]

It's a good thing they don't decide games based on these stats or we would have lost to Baylor.  Twice!

[pike]

Baylor was not better than us

[skycat]

But to imply Baylor was better than us is pretty rough ridin' Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) when we beat them twice AND we went as deep at they did.

i have no interest in promoting baylor.  but points/possession over the conference season is a better way to assess which team was better than is using the win/loss record of two teams that were separated by 9 points over 80 minutes of bball.

Both ways are incomplete. You also have to look at defensive stats. Baylor's offense was better than ours, but our defense was better. I think the author is right that the two teams were pretty evenly matched. (I don't remember him implying that Baylor was better than us, only that their offense was better.)

[Poster formerly known as jthutch]

Yeah, I think you need to look at more than points per possesion.  If you look I think the Cats would have more shot attempts (and free throws) than most teams meaning there offense is not as efficient but they play better defense than most.  Getting more shot attempts is never a bad thing, we just need to make more of them.  So team wise I would say we are the better "team" offensive efficiency is fine if you are only taking 30 shots a game I'm going to beat you with 50 shots per game because I take the ball away from you 15 times a game and only give you one shot per possesion while my team is collecting 20 offensive rebounds a game.

But I do think Baylor and KSU are pretty evenly matched.  And he didn't say Baylor was better than KSU just that they are underrated and that K-State is over-rated and I don't really care as long as we win games.

[sys]

jfc, guys.

[mcmwcat]

Both teams reached the Elite Eight. My own read is that the Bears and Wildcats were more or less equivalent. (Both were really good.) But they weren't treated that way in the polls.

MORE OR LESS EQUIVALENT??!!!111!!?



GET HIM FELLERS!!11!!1111!

[gato montes]

Why is this even a topic? Did you look who wrote it.