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Author Topic: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV  (Read 5254 times)

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Online 'taterblast

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Re: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV
« Reply #25 on: December 13, 2015, 02:47:55 PM »
Quote from: MakeItRain on December 13, 2015, 02:42:50 PM
Quote from: catastrophe on December 12, 2015, 08:12:18 PM
I'd be pretty confident about a Tourney berth if we played in the Pac 12 or SEC,but the Big 12 looks brutal this year. :frown:

We wouldn't be in a different boat in any of those conferences because we will have a whole bunch of road games where we looked like we did the last two. The Georgia game is our road ceiling, the A&M game is how we'll normally look on the road, and we'll have a couple of games where we'll get absolutely housed on the road and one of those games will be against a school like Baylor, UT, OSU, or Tech.

absolutely this. was hoping to see something better yesterday. at least we didn't fold completely, i guess, but it felt too much like last year.
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV
« Reply #26 on: December 13, 2015, 03:10:49 PM »
I firmly believe we can beat teams like TCU, OSU, and Tech if we play like we did yesterday. Granted, aTm is probably not better than 5th/6th in the Big 12, but the top of our league is good. aTm will be a tournament team.

Getting at least 3 road wins in the league will be key, then go no worse than 7-2 at home; 10-8 will probably get us in.
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Offline Trim

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Re: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV
« Reply #27 on: December 13, 2015, 03:29:25 PM »
Royals euphoria has almost completely wore off.  :frown:
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Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV
« Reply #28 on: December 13, 2015, 03:39:25 PM »
Quote from: royals&ksu_FAN on December 13, 2015, 03:10:49 PM
I firmly believe we can beat teams like TCU, OSU, and Tech if we play like we did yesterday. Granted, aTm is probably not better than 5th/6th in the Big 12, but the top of our league is good. aTm will be a tournament team.

Getting at least 3 road wins in the league will be key, then go no worse than 7-2 at home; 10-8 will probably get us in.

Yeah you're right about all of this. Playing like we did yesterday will result in one possession road games against those teams similar to us. I don't think there is any way in hell we go 7-2 at home though.
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Offline sys

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Re: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV
« Reply #29 on: December 13, 2015, 04:03:45 PM »
Quote from: Trim on December 13, 2015, 03:29:25 PM
Royals euphoria has almost completely wore off.  :frown:

not for me.   :)
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Offline sys

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Re: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV
« Reply #30 on: December 13, 2015, 04:07:05 PM »
Quote from: royals&ksu_FAN on December 13, 2015, 03:10:49 PM
aTm will be a tournament team.

if they perform as kenpom expects, they'd be a bubble team, but not one that'd get in most years.
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Offline Canary

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Re: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV
« Reply #31 on: December 13, 2015, 05:58:39 PM »
I still think they have a fairly solid season. I'm not giving up.
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV
« Reply #32 on: December 13, 2015, 06:54:21 PM »
Quote from: sys on December 13, 2015, 04:07:05 PM
Quote from: royals&ksu_FAN on December 13, 2015, 03:10:49 PM
aTm will be a tournament team.

if they perform as kenpom expects, they'd be a bubble team, but not one that'd get in most years.

The kenpom % win vs his adjustments is interesting. They are projected to only lose 2 more games based just on the percentages, but kenpom has them losing 7 in his adjusted numbers. To be fair, 8 of those are between 52-55% winning.
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Offline sys

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Re: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV
« Reply #33 on: December 13, 2015, 09:10:03 PM »
they need to make sure to get some of their wins against florida, vandy and kentucky.  it looks like they also have chances for good wins against baylor and isu (lots of big 12 teams on their schedule, interestingly).  but just one game each with florida and uk.  six chances plus maybe a sec tourney game or two.  amazingly, they have five of those six at home.
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Offline sys

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Re: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV
« Reply #34 on: December 13, 2015, 09:16:02 PM »
south carolina is even more extreme.  they still haven't played anyone, unless you count tulsa.  and in the sec, they only play uk, uf and vandy once each.  and all of those at home.  amazing.

over the entire season, just three chances for good wins.  kenpom projects them at 24-7 and with that schedule, they better not do much worse than that if they want to have any chance of getting in.
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Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV
« Reply #35 on: December 13, 2015, 09:33:42 PM »
Quote from: sys on December 13, 2015, 09:16:02 PM
south carolina is even more extreme.  they still haven't played anyone, unless you count tulsa.  and in the sec, they only play uk, uf and vandy once each.  and all of those at home.  amazing.

over the entire season, just three chances for good wins.  kenpom projects them at 24-7 and with that schedule, they better not do much worse than that if they want to have any chance of getting in.

CBS College Basketball podcast had the same conversation, they're going 28-3 : excited:
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Offline Mixed-Nutz

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Re: Not quite Reed-y for the road win; aTm ADV
« Reply #36 on: December 13, 2015, 11:49:09 PM »
Quote from: sys on December 13, 2015, 09:16:02 PM
south carolina is even more extreme.  they still haven't played anyone, unless you count tulsa.  and in the sec, they only play uk, uf and vandy once each.  and all of those at home.  amazing.

over the entire season, just three chances for good wins.  kenpom projects them at 24-7 and with that schedule, they better not do much worse than that if they want to have any chance of getting in.

USCjr. schedule is just the worst. The SEC scheduling is joke in general. Needs to be a fixed.
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