Match-ups (in order of importance).
1) Angel (Tay) vs Johnson (Tharpe). Yes, I'd put this match-up higher than McClemore/Rod. IMHO, point guard play will go a long way toward deciding this game. Angel not only needs to continue creating and forcing turnovers, but tonight he must hit shots at a better clip. Johnson is a good player, but I think KU might be most vulnerable here.
2) Rod vs McClemore. Granted, they likely won't be matched up much of the game; Releford will likely get Rod most of the time while oscar throws several defenders at McClemore. However, the efficiency of scoring for each team starts with their two scoring stars; here the experienced SR vs the lottery pick talent Frosh. I think PG is more important, but this one is a close 2nd.
3) Withey vs Gip/JO. KU will win this battle, but K-State has to compete here. I'd take it if we could get JO/Gip to combine for a double-double and not allow Withey to get 8-10 blocks. Also, crisp movement in the motion and the ability to get Withey away from the rim would help open up the lane for others.
4) Shane/Will vs Releford/Ellis/Young. The final round becomes about the secondary players. K-State could probably throw Nino in here too, but Shane is the small ball 4 that has come on the most. And Shane/Will hitting some perimeter shots could be the difference. I've already said 3PT shots will likely be a huge part of K-State's chances to win and the Cats will need more than just Rod hitting shots. Releford is an efficient scorer and shooter, so whichever Cat defender ends up guarding him (probably Will) needs to do a great job limiting wide open shots.
To win it, K-State needs to win at least 3 of the 4 match-ups. 2 of 4 won't get it done and worse will be a Bramlage blowout.