Safeties vs. TD and Expected Value

[Kat Kid]

DATA SOURCE: http://www.bcftoys.com/data/

My quick math and tweets:

receive free kick and get to own 35 brings EV of 2 + 2 for safety -(-1.6) stolen opponent possession (assuming touchback) = 5.6 points

7-1.6 for opponent starting position (assuming touchback) =5.4 points

Is it possible it is even better for good offenses like georgia? 5.6 > 5.4 ! georgia 9-0 nebraska

[Stevesie60]

I've never understood safeties. 2 points and the ball seems like a ridiculous award for such a rare accomplishment. I think it should be treated like a touchback, the team on defense gets the ball at the 20.

[SkinnyBenny]

I've never understood safeties. 2 points and the ball seems like a ridiculous award for such a rare accomplishment. I think it should be treated like a touchback, the team on defense gets the ball at the 20.

Bigtime disagree here, Jakesie. Love the bizarre play being rewarded with the bizarre 2 points and the ball. It's a great quirk. Plus, it allows for rampant speculation about whether Georgia should've tried a little harder to not bobble it out the back of the end zone or if they did right by fracking up and then ultimately capitalizing even more.

[Kat Kid]

I've never understood safeties. 2 points and the ball seems like a ridiculous award for such a rare accomplishment. I think it should be treated like a touchback, the team on defense gets the ball at the 20.

Bigtime disagree here, Jakesie. Love the bizarre play being rewarded with the bizarre 2 points and the ball. It's a great quirk. Plus, it allows for rampant speculation about whether Georgia should've tried a little harder to not bobble it out the back of the end zone or if they did right by fracking up and then ultimately capitalizing even more.

I didn't speculate, I did some math.

[Cire]

Perfect rule IMO

[MixBerryCrunch]

I think a safety should result in the two points and then a loss of down and the ball placed on the 1 yard line. It's almost not worth the safety if it's third and ten from the one. You give up an almost certain chance for at least 3 points for 2 points and an average chance at more.

[Sandstone Outcropping]

Perfect rule IMO