Author Topic: Safeties vs. TD and Expected Value  (Read 1400 times)

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Offline Kat Kid

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Safeties vs. TD and Expected Value
« on: January 01, 2013, 12:48:54 PM »
DATA SOURCE: http://www.bcftoys.com/data/

My quick math and tweets:
Quote
receive free kick and get to own 35 brings EV of 2 + 2 for safety -(-1.6) stolen opponent possession (assuming touchback) = 5.6 points

7-1.6 for opponent starting position (assuming touchback) =5.4 points

Is it possible it is even better for good offenses like georgia? 5.6 > 5.4 ! georgia 9-0 nebraska


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Offline Stevesie60

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Re: Safeties vs. TD and Expected Value
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2013, 07:47:24 PM »
I've never understood safeties. 2 points and the ball seems like a ridiculous award for such a rare accomplishment. I think it should be treated like a touchback, the team on defense gets the ball at the 20.

Offline SkinnyBenny

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Safeties vs. TD and Expected Value
« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2013, 07:51:26 PM »
I've never understood safeties. 2 points and the ball seems like a ridiculous award for such a rare accomplishment. I think it should be treated like a touchback, the team on defense gets the ball at the 20.

Bigtime disagree here, Jakesie. Love the bizarre play being rewarded with the bizarre 2 points and the ball. It's a great quirk. Plus, it allows for rampant speculation about whether Georgia should've tried a little harder to not bobble it out the back of the end zone or if they did right by fracking up and then ultimately capitalizing even more.
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Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Safeties vs. TD and Expected Value
« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2013, 07:59:01 PM »
I've never understood safeties. 2 points and the ball seems like a ridiculous award for such a rare accomplishment. I think it should be treated like a touchback, the team on defense gets the ball at the 20.

Bigtime disagree here, Jakesie. Love the bizarre play being rewarded with the bizarre 2 points and the ball. It's a great quirk. Plus, it allows for rampant speculation about whether Georgia should've tried a little harder to not bobble it out the back of the end zone or if they did right by fracking up and then ultimately capitalizing even more.

I didn't speculate, I did some math.

Offline Cire

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Re: Safeties vs. TD and Expected Value
« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2013, 08:08:15 PM »
Perfect rule IMO

Offline MixBerryCrunch

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Re: Safeties vs. TD and Expected Value
« Reply #5 on: January 01, 2013, 09:51:49 PM »
I think a safety should result in the two points and then a loss of down and the ball placed on the 1 yard line. It's almost not worth the safety if it's third and ten from the one. You give up an almost certain chance for at least 3 points for 2 points and an average chance at more.
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Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: Safeties vs. TD and Expected Value
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2013, 09:44:22 AM »