Sorry if Luke Lobster, Rock Lukester, or even Luke Lukester.
http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8572232/why-kansas-state-wildcats-deserve-ranked-no-1-ncfAs of this week, four teams have separated themselves from the pack in the race to the BCS championship, and each one has a solid chance to run the table the rest of the way. Debates over strength of schedule, style points, and signature wins will define the final month of the season. The chase for a coveted championship berth may be as hotly contested as ever.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish overpowered Oklahoma last weekend on the road in their biggest statement game to date. The Alabama Crimson Tide and Oregon Ducks have marquee road games this Saturday in which they, too, can make a major statement on the biggest stage.
And then there's the Kansas State Wildcats, perhaps the most overlooked of the four contenders. They are currently ranked No. 2 in the BCS standings, but many experts expect the Wildcats won't be able to hold onto that ranking even if they win out, because Kansas State's biggest games are already in its rearview mirror.
On the other hand, Kansas State has been so strong in all three phases of the game, consistently exceeding expectations and winning with unmatched efficiency. A statistical evaluation of the Kansas State résumé shouldn't keep them out of the championship conversation. In fact, Kansas State may have the best case to be ranked No. 1 of any team in the country. Here are five reasons why.
1. Ruthless offensive efficiency
There's plenty of firepower in the Big 12 and other conferences, but Kansas State has potentially the most dangerous offense of all. The Wildcats rank fifth nationally in total points per game (44.4), first in points per non-garbage drive (4.0), and first in explosive drives (27.1 percent of Kansas State's non-garbage drives average better than 10 yards per play). What's unique about the Kansas State offense is that it can be both a big-play and a ball-control offense at the same time. (Collin Klein deserves some credit here, with a second-in-the-nation 9.9 yards per passing attempt.)
As efficiently as Kansas State scores on offense, it also controls clock by keeping the ball on the ground and not playing at an extreme tempo. Time of possession isn't as important as limiting opponent plays and possessions. The Wildcats' opponents average only 11.0 offensive possessions per game, the fourth-fewest nationally. As a comparison, the Ducks are also explosive on offense, but their tempo allows the opponent to get the ball 15.1 times per game, the fifth-highest average in the nation.
2. Limiting big plays
Kansas State's defensive profile is the perfect complement to its offensive efficiency because it completely eliminates opponent big plays. The Wildcats have only given up 18 plays that covered 20 or more yards all season, tied with Alabama and LSU for the third-fewest nationally. Kansas State ranks second nationally in limiting opponent explosive drives (3.1 percent), and they've done so against one of the strongest sets of opposing offenses in the country.
3. Generating non-offensive value
The Wildcats' defense has collected 20 opponent turnovers this season and the offense has only coughed it up four times. That's a terrific margin for the second year in a row (Kansas State was plus-12 on turnovers last season), and one of the ways the Wildcats distinguished themselves from our early-season projections. Generating a strong turnover margin year over year is rare, and it pays off in generating non-offensive value.
We break down every possession to account for the offense, defense, and special teams units that created the scoreboard value earned or lost over the course of each game. Kansas State isn't just creating lots of turnovers, it is creating bigger scoring margins from those turnovers than almost anyone else. In non-garbage time, Kansas State has generated 57.1 points this season on turnover exchanges, second only behind Louisiana Tech.
4. Controlling field position
On top of turnover value, Kansas State has been a consistent winner in special teams as well. The Wildcats boast the nation's fourth-best kickoff return team in terms of starting field position value (Tyler Lockett, with his 29.7 yards per kickoff return average, is a big reason why). The Wildcats start drives following opponent kickoffs five yards closer to the end zone than an average team, increasing the likelihood of success for the offense and putting the defense in better position for success when the offense does punt. Kansas State's total special teams efficiency ranks 10th nationally.
The combination of offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency lends itself well to dominant field position. Kansas State has had a field position advantage in all but one game this season. Based on starting field position alone, the Wildcats are expected to score 5.4 points more than its opponents per game, the third-best field position advantage nationally.
5. Winning close games
LHC Bill Snyder's success in resurrecting the Kansas State program has been most notable in the team's success in winning the tight games. The Wildcats have won a remarkable 10 of their last 11 games decided by a touchdown or less, including this year's victories over Oklahoma and Iowa State on the road. Over time, teams should expect to be relatively close to .500 in games decided by a single score, so they are clearly exceeding expectations in this department. It has a lot to do with Snyder's confident coaching style, but Kansas State's offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency are all prepared to carry the load late in close games.
What happens next?
At the beginning of the season, we identified only a select number of teams that could contend for the national championship based on the Program FEI ratings, a five-year measure of team efficiency that has been a strong predictor of next-year success. No team in the BCS era has made the national championship game without having been ranked in the top 20 of PFEI coming into the season. Kansas State may prove to be the biggest exception to the rule of all, ranking 48th in PFEI heading into 2012.
In the last decade, only two teams ranked outside the top 40 in the preseason PFEI finished the year ranked among the FEI top 5: the 2007 Oregon Ducks and the 2010 Stanford Cardinal. Neither of those teams played for the national championship, but neither of those two teams was as consistently efficient in all three phases of the game as Kansas State has been this year, either.
So while K-State looks right now like it will need help (in addition to winning out) to get a shot at the title, its statistical profile tells us two things: 1.) The Wildcats might be the most deserving team of a BCS championship berth in the nation, and 2.) If they do get a championship opportunity, they are well-prepared to seize it.
