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Literally don't give one single eff if it's been posted before and i'm luking or puking or juking or whatever you dorks call it
Likeliest team to go undefeated is ...
The odds for Bama, K-State, Florida, Oregon and Notre Dame to win out
Updated: October 23, 2012, 2:27 PM ET
By Brian Fremeau | Football Outsiders
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Scott Kane/Icon SMIThe Alabama offense has been very efficient so far this season.
We've passed the midway point of the season and the BCS championship race is coming into focus. There are many potential scenarios that are still in play, and only a few teams can confidently claim that they control their own destiny.
If either Alabama or Florida wins the rest of its games, it will most certainly reach the title game. Upsets are inevitable down the stretch, of course, and that means it is too early for a handful of others to worry about their positions in the BCS standings. Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame may be jockeying for position now, but there's a pretty good chance that they, too, control their own fate. Take care of business and win the rest of their games, and they'll likely be there in the end. Trip up, and today's poll arguments won't matter much.
About a month ago, we ran an article detailing the statistical similarities between the top five teams in The Associated Press poll and national title contenders from recent seasons. We have a new top five to consider (only Alabama and Oregon are still in that group), and with more data collected, an even stronger methodology to calculate similarity scores.
We compared each of the top five teams in this week's BCS standings to every other FBS team over the past five seasons across 25 distinct statistical measures. Each metric was weighted according to its correlation with overall winning percentage.
Here is a look at the closest recent team comparison for each team in the BCS top five -- lined up by current BCS ranking -- including their chances of remaining undefeated the rest of the way and the remaining opponents that could provide the biggest challenges.
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1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Most similar stat profile: 2008 USC (12-1 vs. FBS)
Likelihood of remaining undefeated in regular season: 42.9 percent
When we first researched similarity scores last month, the 2008 Trojans were the best fit for this year's Crimson Tide as well, and not much has changed for the reigning champs. Alabama's overall drive efficiency profile on both sides of the ball is very strong. The Crimson Tide rank No. 3 nationally in avoiding three-and-outs on offense (16.9 percent of drives) and No. 1 on defense (50.0 percent of opponent drives). The elite combination of offensive and defensive dominance carried USC to comfortable victories throughout the 2008 season.
The lone hiccup for USC in 2008 was a field-position meltdown at the hands of Oregon State, and as mentioned last month, that's been a strong suit for Alabama this year. The Crimson Tide rank No. 6 in field-position advantage, most of that generated by defense setting up the offense with a short field.
If Alabama does struggle to generate turnovers, they may find themselves in a tight game deep into the second half. Mississippi State kept it close for a while last year against Alabama by winning the field-position battle, and could do so again this weekend.
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2. Florida Gators
Most similar stat profile: 2010 LSU (10-2 vs. FBS)
Likelihood of remaining undefeated in regular season: 45.2 percent
The Gators have been winning with a defense-and-special-teams-first personality, scoring 44 points last weekend against South Carolina despite generating only 183 yards of total offense. The Gators had six possessions starting in Gamecocks territory and have had 20 drives starting on the opponent's side of the field all year, fifth most nationally. Florida leads the nation in our special teams efficiency rating as well, generating 4.3 points over average per game. That non-offensive profile is exactly what LSU has made a living off of in recent seasons, and the 2010 Tigers are the most similar team in our study.
The warning sign is that this year's Gators are even more offensively challenged than that LSU team, which, like Florida this season, started 7-0. The Tigers then lost twice in their final five games when running into offensive powerhouses in Auburn and Arkansas.
Florida ranks No. 82 in generating first downs, far worse than any recent BCS championship game participant. Defense and special teams can carry a team far, but when those short fields aren't available, Florida will be very vulnerable against teams such as the Georgia Bulldogs (this weekend) and the Florida State Seminoles (at the end of season), which have offensive firepower of their own.
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3. Kansas State Wildcats
Most similar stat profile: 2008 Texas (12-1 vs. FBS)
Likelihood of remaining undefeated in regular season: 38.1 percent
No other team has a more impressive résumé to date than Kansas State, according to our drive-based FEI ratings. LHC Bill Snyder's team has been ruthlessly efficient, especially considering the competition. The Wildcats rank No. 1 in offensive points per drive (3.9) and No. 2 -- behind only Alabama -- in net points per drive (2.6). According to our data, Kansas State has played the 15th-toughest schedule to date and Alabama has played the 100th-toughest schedule to date.
Kansas State compares very well with the 2008 Texas Longhorns, one of the best teams in recent years that did not get to play for a national championship. Texas was also prolific (No. 1 in offensive efficiency, No. 1 in available yards earned), but it was denied a BCS championship opportunity due to a last-second loss to Texas Tech late in the season.
The Red Raiders may pose the biggest threat to Kansas State's undefeated season this weekend, too, though they'll need to find success with big plays to do so. This season, 24.2 percent of Texas Tech's offensive drives have averaged more than 10 yards per play, ranking sixth nationally. But Kansas State has stifled big-play threats from other elite offenses, most notably last weekend against West Virginia.
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4. Oregon Ducks
Most similar stat profile: 2008 Boise State (11-1 vs. FBS)
Likelihood of remaining undefeated in regular season: 21.2 percent
Ducks fans probably won't appreciate being associated with the 2008 Broncos, a team that beat Oregon in Eugene en route to an undefeated regular season. The profile fits in part due to the relatively weak schedule played so far -- Oregon ranks 102nd nationally in strength of schedule to date; Boise State ranked 99th at the end of that year. Of course, Oregon has one of the nation's toughest schedules over the final stretch of the season, so the Ducks will distinguish themselves soon enough, win or lose.
For as much success as Oregon has had generating points (51 per game, ranking second nationally), the Ducks haven't been as efficient possession by possession as one might expect. Oregon scores quickly on many drives but also sputters from time to time. Even after discarding garbage-time drives and plays, Oregon ranks only 23rd in avoiding three-and-outs and 30th in earning available yards -- solid stats, but not necessarily elite.
Oregon's strength, and its similarity to the 2008 Broncos, is that it is very balanced on offense and defense. Our value drives metric is a measure of the success of teams finishing drives that start in their own territory and cross the opponent's 30-yard line. Oregon ranks No. 1 in offensive points per value drive (6.4), No. 2 in opponent points per value drive (2.7), and No. 1 by a wide margin in net points per value drive (3.7). Even against a gauntlet up ahead, that kind of success in key situations will help keep Oregon on top.
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5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Most similar stat profile: 2011 South Carolina (10-2 vs. FBS)
Likelihood of remaining undefeated in regular season: 17.9 percent
Notre Dame has been winning the close ones this year with a tough defense and a running game that has grown stronger as each game wears on. The Irish are 4-0 in games decided by a single score, similar to South Carolina's profile from last season (4-1 in single-score games), and like the Gamecocks, Notre Dame has been primarily led by its defense. The Irish rank first nationally in defending explosive drives (1.4 percent of possessions average 10 or more yards per play), and only 21 percent of opponent red zone trips have resulted in a touchdown.
Like South Carolina last year, Notre Dame's special teams efficiency is a weak spot. The Irish rank 90th in special teams, and have already won five games this year in which they had to overcome a special teams deficit in the game. Field position is weak, too, and may catch up to them against an elite offense such as the one the Oklahoma Sooners bring to their matchup this weekend. South Carolina was steamrolled by the best offense it faced last year, on the road against Arkansas late in the season, right after two hard-fought, low-scoring victories. Oklahoma is the most complete opponent Notre Dame is scheduled to play this year, ranking in the top 20 in all three phases of the game.
Brian Fremeau covers college football for ESPN Insider. He is a staff writer for Football Outsiders, where his weekly column focuses on the Fremeau Efficiency Index, a drive-based, opponent-adjusted team-rating system he began developing in 2002. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
No other team has a more impressive résumé to date than Kansas State
