ORCHID Week 5

[CHONGS]

how does D/ST scoring affect the numbers, if at all?

effective offense is number of points scored per play (regardless of how)

  that's why KSU is #6!

bingo!
:fingertonose:

and because we rarely go backwards.  we chug forward at a good pace albeit we let the clock run.  We have fewer offensive plays than a lot, but we make them count.

[yoEMAW]

WHAT NOW, BITCHES!

[Pete]

Chings, after the season, you need to go back through your rankings and figure out how accurately they predict winners.

[8manpick]

Why isn't effective offense based on points per possession instead of points per play?  Haven't looked at real data for correlation but it seems to me like it would be less easily skewed.

4 drives from offense A:

• 3 and out
• 2 plays, touchdown
• 1 play, touchdown
• 4 plays, fumble

4 from offense B:

• 10 plays, TD
• 9 plays, TD
• 11 plays, FG
• 10 plays, TD

Team A pts/play: 1.4
Team B pts/play: .6

Team A pts/poss: 3.5
Team B pts/poss: 6

Just seems like pts/play favors quick strike offenses too much.  Maybe there is a happy medium?  Maybe large sample sizes make the difference negligible? I dunno, just my thoughts.

[SdK]

Those were good thoughts

[SwiftCat]

I also like points/possession more than point/play. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter if you use a ton of plays or very few, if you find the endzone at the end of the possession, it was a success. If you keep the opposing offense out of the endzone, it was a success.

[CHONGS]

Why isn't effective offense based on points per possession instead of points per play?  Haven't looked at real data for correlation but it seems to me like it would be less easily skewed.

4 drives from offense A:

• 3 and out
• 2 plays, touchdown
• 1 play, touchdown
• 4 plays, fumble

4 from offense B:

• 10 plays, TD
• 9 plays, TD
• 11 plays, FG
• 10 plays, TD

Team A pts/play: 1.4
Team B pts/play: .6

Team A pts/poss: 3.5
Team B pts/poss: 6

Just seems like pts/play favors quick strike offenses too much.  Maybe there is a happy medium?  Maybe large sample sizes make the difference negligible? I dunno, just my thoughts.

I agree in principle, but the number of possessions are not an easy stat to obtain.

I still think all things equal the team that scores in fewer possessions is more efficient. 

I will post more on this, but for now here is the data for all games so far this season:

This is the distribution of raw points per play so far this year (the mean is 0.42 and the standard deviation of the data is 0.23)


 

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[CHONGS]

Also the avg # of offensive plays per game so far is about 70. 

[CHONGS]

Possible correlation?

(but does not mean causation people!)


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[Rage Against the McKee]

I like points per play because I think field position and special teams have a greater impact on points per play than points per possession. I don't think the rankings would look a whole lot different either way, though.