I'm also saying it's more likely to win in football with intangibles and stuff we really don't like to acknowledge. Because of footballs three phases and the impact of turnovers you can overcome a terrible performance in one phase and win. I don't think anything like that translates to basketball in quite the same way.
agree on the intangibles, just because so much in fball is hard to quantify and no one really even tries as far as i know. but in bball, the 3 and really just shooting in general is so random and important.
historically, i don't think there is any question that bball has more upsets than fball. it seems to be changing some lately, with fball becoming more upset prone (85 man roster impact? dunno really what other changes might impact that), but i don't think it compares to bball yet. did you see that presby beat ucinn at home today?