Gambling public isn't pushing this line. Public is basically split, 51% K-State and 49% UCLA. But the guys that matter, sharps aka wiseguys, are the ones pounding the Cats.
From Chad Millman's insider blog:
The longest debate occurred over UCLA-Kansas State. When this game opened, the Bruins were favored by 2.5 points. But as game day crept closer, it flipped and the Wildcats became 2.5-point favorites. That's a five-point swing crossing the pick 'em transom, which to the wiseguys represented a stadium full of opportunity. First, they discussed the why: It had less to do with Kansas State than with the litany of issues along UCLA's starting offensive line: Last year's left tackle, Xavier Su'a-Filo, had left school to do his Mormon mission; right tackle Mike Harris is suspended the first game; and, the biggest blow, center Kai Maiava fractured his ankle in an Aug. 21 scrimmage. UCLA will begin the year with one holdover from last year's starting unit.
Every wiseguy worth his bankroll will tell you the first factor they consider when betting college football is continuity and health along the offensive line. They grade the games the same way coaches do -- from the inside out. With every loss the Bruins' O-line suffered, the balance in the spread shifted a little more. Most of the guys at the table started buying the game when it hit pick in a "Piranha 3-D"-like frenzy. But a couple of guys waited until it was at K-State minus-2. Shame on them.
"You know better," said Fezzik. "That pick was out there, it sat for long enough to take it."
"It wasn't too late getting it at minus-2," said Teddy Covers, coming to one of his fellow wise guy's defense. "The goal is to beat the closing number. It's at 2.5 and may go higher. So he did that."
"No," said Fezzik. "The goal is to get the best number."
Teddy nodded, they agreed they were both right. But it illuminated another point that separates sharps from the rest of us. It has nothing to do with knowledge or systems or will or bankroll. It has to do with time and focus. They are at their desks tracking lines 12-15 hours a day. They may see pick 'em in UCLA-K-State while we're stuck in some meeting about how to use SAP. It will be gone before we've gotten through half the PowerPoint slides. That's because the sharps saw it and played it (at least most of them), leaving us with the worst of the number. We don't know less, we just pay attention less.
Not that the wiseguys are perfect.
